How is the group playing or investing in Chat GTP? Have you been using that incredible tool? Have you seen the historic downloads of it? People will be endlessly rich because of chat gpb but it remains to be seen how to get into it. It is a private company. Where to park your money and invest... Hmmm.
MSFT, NVDA? What do you like?
I tired C3 AI, ticker AI, and was wildly up for a brief moment but cleared out in time to avoid a loss. It's jumped around a little since then, but no rebound back up.
I am watching UPST and will look for an entry point. And NOW is another I'm watching.
NVDA, GOOG, and MSFT have been my plays. esp. NVDA.
That was brought up as a possible explanation and he explicitly denied it. That leaves us with your other possible explanation..
"No actively managed stock or bond funds outperformed the market convincingly and regularly over the last five years."
* As per the NY Times article linked below, dated 12/2/22. The DJIA was the benchmark index. I suppose somebody could beat the market by constantly flipping in and out of mutual funds to pick each year's winner, but who does that?! Not very likely to be that nimble and that energetic.
Constantly flipping in and out of mutual funds will never beat the market. Never. Has been many articles that employing this strategy is nothing but a losing strategy. buy and hold. Buy and hold.
Flagpole “beat the market” so consistently by including his regular deposits in his calculation of year end gains. Only possible explanation other than bald faced lies.
That was brought up as a possible explanation and he explicitly denied it. That leaves us with your other possible explanation..
Um...NOPE!
1) I made some moves early on (first 10 years of investing) that were just flat lucky.
2) Once I settled into a more stable plan of just adding somewhat random mutual funds to my portfolio (somewhat randomly picked, but picked because there were of a different kind than I had...or I didn't have much of that kind), I continued to be fortunate.
3) In years when I wasn't already maxing out our retirement funds, I would put in extra in the middle of the year IF there had been a big drop. I did that maybe a handful of times ever. I would either up the amount going into our regular investment accounts (410k and 403B) OR, I would dump in lump sum into our IRAs that weren't always maxed.
4) I have long said that I'm not an expert at investing. I have done two things consistently (beginning at about 10 years in for both things). A) I have NEVER faltered when it comes to investing. I always have a set percentage to invest, it is done automatically, and I never have decided NOT to invest. I have lowered the amount for a while, and I have upped the amount, but I have never NOT invested twice a month like clockwork since I started investing in 1989. B) I have been very diversified. I was more heavily in one sector or another the first 10 years, but have been very well diversified since.
5) So, bald-faced lies? Nope. Putting in money at the end and counting that as earned value? Nope. To be fair, you DID forget a third possibility...that I don't know how to calculate what I've earned and what I've contributed, but in that case, it's also a NO as I DO know how to do those things.
That was brought up as a possible explanation and he explicitly denied it. That leaves us with your other possible explanation..
Um...NOPE!
1) I made some moves early on (first 10 years of investing) that were just flat lucky.
2) Once I settled into a more stable plan of just adding somewhat random mutual funds to my portfolio (somewhat randomly picked, but picked because there were of a different kind than I had...or I didn't have much of that kind), I continued to be fortunate.
3) In years when I wasn't already maxing out our retirement funds, I would put in extra in the middle of the year IF there had been a big drop. I did that maybe a handful of times ever. I would either up the amount going into our regular investment accounts (410k and 403B) OR, I would dump in lump sum into our IRAs that weren't always maxed.
4) I have long said that I'm not an expert at investing. I have done two things consistently (beginning at about 10 years in for both things). A) I have NEVER faltered when it comes to investing. I always have a set percentage to invest, it is done automatically, and I never have decided NOT to invest. I have lowered the amount for a while, and I have upped the amount, but I have never NOT invested twice a month like clockwork since I started investing in 1989. B) I have been very diversified. I was more heavily in one sector or another the first 10 years, but have been very well diversified since.
5) So, bald-faced lies? Nope. Putting in money at the end and counting that as earned value? Nope. To be fair, you DID forget a third possibility...that I don't know how to calculate what I've earned and what I've contributed, but in that case, it's also a NO as I DO know how to do those things.
Congratulations, FP. Some very worthwhile advice and insights, and much to be garnered thanks to your willingness to share.
Hedgies get it wrong again. They were apparently very short in April, just as the market started a 6% run. No doubt some of this rally is short covering as hedge funds buy back their shorts trying to chase performance.
To be fair, I've heard that measurements of short exposure at hedge funds are not very accurate for one reason or another.
But still, don't invest in hedge funds. Not great.
Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders Hedge funds currently sitting with largest net short position in S&P 500 futures since late 2011
I am flat on all my HSGFX shares. The fund has been resilient against the relentless bear market rally. I have taken a beating on my shorts above 4,100, and reduced my exposure to under 5%. I will add back in as enthusiasm fades and fundamentals reverse AI madness. EM CEFs doing well EMD price up a percent YTD, FAX price up 8%YTD. The entire cost basis up double digits, while both delivering better than 10% on income at my cost basis. So not missing much with EM CEFs as my largest position, and certainly not bearish considering the perceived risk.
I am flat on all my HSGFX shares. The fund has been resilient against the relentless bear market rally. I have taken a beating on my shorts above 4,100, and reduced my exposure to under 5%. I will add back in as enthusiasm fades and fundamentals reverse AI madness. EM CEFs doing well EMD price up a percent YTD, FAX price up 8%YTD. The entire cost basis up double digits, while both delivering better than 10% on income at my cost basis. So not missing much with EM CEFs as my largest position, and certainly not bearish considering the perceived risk.
Igy
Glad to hear that you have been doing pretty well on HSGFX. And hope things are well. You should hop aboard the Dow/S & P/NASDAQ bullet train because it is going to be a rip-roaring final 6 months of the year. Hop on board and we can enjoy the good times together.
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 12, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 24.29%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 13.46% while Germany's DAXK finished in third with a YTD gain of 10.02%.
I am flat on all my HSGFX shares. The fund has been resilient against the relentless bear market rally. I have taken a beating on my shorts above 4,100, and reduced my exposure to under 5%. I will add back in as enthusiasm fades and fundamentals reverse AI madness. EM CEFs doing well EMD price up a percent YTD, FAX price up 8%YTD. The entire cost basis up double digits, while both delivering better than 10% on income at my cost basis. So not missing much with EM CEFs as my largest position, and certainly not bearish considering the perceived risk.
Igy
Glad to hear that you have been doing pretty well on HSGFX. And hope things are well. You should hop aboard the Dow/S & P/NASDAQ bullet train because it is going to be a rip-roaring final 6 months of the year. Hop on board and we can enjoy the good times together.
No, I think S&P 500 EPS will seriously decline by year end. The AI frenzy was supported by Fed and Treasury liquidity measures to support regional bank collapse. Yesterday’s walk away of San Francisco’s largest mall illustrates the continued collapse of commercial real estate. Energy costs have declined with falling demand and SPR releases. SPR is a decade low. Food costs continue to increase, and remain a stress on all consumers. 401k contributions have fallen to a decade low. So no, things are not good, and this rally is about topped out.
About all that tells me is that you missed out. Sorry.
Just confirms that he's a permabear. He already has called for an S&P 500 of 3000 by year's end, and it has done nothing but go up since he said that. He's just a permabear and knows nothing about how to predict the market...I don't know how to predict it either (not in a microscale), but I don't pretend that I do.
The ONLY thing that is foolproof is to do regular investing without fail into diversified mutual funds. You can't time the market. You just need to invest until you are ready to retire at which time you will begin to draw from your pile (while still keeping it invested i the market). You should invest money today that you don't need so that you have money later on when you no longer have an income.