Where are all the naysayers and doom-and-gloom "experts" who 6 months ago were all saying the markets were going to tank? They sure got quiet all of a sudden.
The markets have clawed their way back remarkably well. What is heartening is how they are saying their is still a lot of hedging and negative sentiment behind it, which would indicate theirs room for more upside if a serious recession doesn't materialize. Will be interesting to see about the next rate increase or will the Fed pause. Fairly strong case could be made either way.
EDIT: apparently strong consensus among analysts is no hike on June 13-14th Fed meeting but some likelihood of at least quarter percent increase by end of year, and possibly in mid-July.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
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Thanks for reaching out, Wendy!
Most of us are presently pretty flush, but that's only because we're deep in delusion as commonly happens before the resumption of the prolongued bear market, which is due any day now.
Maybe you could check back in... any day now.... and I'm sure you'll have some takers.
Of course, we'll have to clear it with Flagpole first. He has some strong opinions about taking on debt.
Of course, we'll have to clear it with Flagpole first. He has some strong opinions about taking on debt.
Flagpole has also beat the market in 45 of the last 20 years
The heavily high tech NASDAQ had a return of 86% in 1999. Flagpole doesn't have much high-tech so it makes you wonder how he was able to beat the market that year with his conservtive portfolio.
Flagpole has also beat the market in 45 of the last 20 years
The heavily high tbut you ech NASDAQ had a return of 86% in 1999. Flagpole doesn't have much high-tech so it makes you wonder how he was able to beat the market that year with his conservtive portfolio.
Another thing .... Flagpole claims his portfolio has beaten the Dow Jones all of these years but you are comparing apples to oranges. His portfolio includes everything but the Dow only has 30 blue chip stocks and is price-weighted.
Flagpole “beat the market” so consistently by including his regular deposits in his calculation of year end gains. Only possible explanation other than bald faced lies.
The March lows around the financial crisis terrified a lot of people and got them to sell. Many of my saved notes are from that period. Which has really faded in terms of market memories. We went from fine to financial crisis to fine in 3 months. Such a resilient system we have, seriously.
So here's another reading from the silicon valley bank crash era. Suggested what was happening was on par with other calamities and we should expect the VIX to go to 45-80.
Instead the VIX fell to a 15 handle and the market is up 11% from those lows. Hoo boy. I bet much of this rally is people trying to buy back in at any price after they panic sold in March after reading things like this:
AnilVohra1962 @AnilVohra1962 St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index rises to 1.57 (0 is neutral), a level seen in only four times during the last 30 years: 1) LTCM collapse 2) Dotcom bubble bursting 3) GFC 4) Covid In every case VIX hit atleast 45. During the last two spikes, it hit 80.
Is the US in recession? There are some signs of slowdowns, but GDP Now is at +2.2% for the 2Q and accelerating, so unlikely.
326,000 views.
Alf @MacroAlf The global industrial economy is already in a recession. Manufacturing data from China proxies (Vietnam, Korea etc) and European open economies (Sweden) looks awful. I expect consumer spending and the labor market to take a hit too. My base case: US in recession by June 3:16 AM · Apr 3, 2023 · 326.1K Views
Flagpole “beat the market” so consistently by including his regular deposits in his calculation of year end gains. Only possible explanation other than bald faced lies.
That was brought up as a possible explanation and he explicitly denied it. That leaves us with your other possible explanation..
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Flagpole “beat the market” so consistently by including his regular deposits in his calculation of year end gains. Only possible explanation other than bald faced lies.
That was brought up as a possible explanation and he explicitly denied it. That leaves us with your other possible explanation..
Flagpole “beat the market” so consistently by including his regular deposits in his calculation of year end gains. Only possible explanation other than bald faced lies.
That was brought up as a possible explanation and he explicitly denied it. That leaves us with your other possible explanation..
"No actively managed stock or bond funds outperformed the market convincingly and regularly over the last five years."
* As per the NY Times article linked below, dated 12/2/22. The DJIA was the benchmark index. I suppose somebody could beat the market by constantly flipping in and out of mutual funds to pick each year's winner, but who does that?! Not very likely to be that nimble and that energetic.
No actively managed stock or bond funds outperformed the market convincingly and regularly over the last five years. Index funds have generally been better.
How is the group playing or investing in Chat GTP? Have you been using that incredible tool? Have you seen the historic downloads of it? People will be endlessly rich because of chat gpb but it remains to be seen how to get into it. It is a private company. Where to park your money and invest... Hmmm.
