fair enough on YTD but the 12m number favors non-US stocks pretty strongly, esp if you get out of the just the SP500.
12m:
USA -12.46%
Rest of World -7.95%
that's no joke. Scherzo. Witz.
Come on, Agip. Of course, in hindsight.
But no one, no one, not even the love-twins Flaggy and Sally, the two self-proclaimed greatest investors of all time with untold fortunes they will tell you about, could have seen that coming after a decade of overseas greatly underperforming US stocks.
Sectors will fluctuate as might be expected.
But the mass mover of the last decade offered up an opportunity to buy a dip in an otherwise epic wealth-building ascension. Admittedly, not without some risk and no guarantees, since there never are, but to my mind it may be this simple - the tremendous bull market of the last 13 years was interrupted with pesky inflation and the Fed promising to real it in with interest rate hikes. It was doing so aggressively, and to most everyone's consternation, signs of strong growth in the economy (as evidenced in employment numbers particularly) persist even though the pesky inflation was slowing. So the Fed had to keep promising to be keep rates high for longer and be persistent about rate increases.
Then, and this is the new part, weakness in the banking sector sent a signal to the Fed of some unintended and rather serious consequences to what they were doing, and perhaps there were limits. So, investors see a Fed now finally easing off, and move in. My bet: this rebound has legs.
well the hard part is always changing a thesis.
From 2000-2010 the SP500 made zero dollars and emerging markets rose at mayb 15% per year. It has been a pendulum, and we may have just seen the first year of the next 10-year swing, with non-US outperforming US.
I don't know. But thinking the next 10 years will follow the same pattern as the last 10 years is a dangerous plan. it's usually a pendulum. It's been a year. it might stretch to 2 years, then five. When you acknowledge the pendulum?
Should be somethign to think about anyway. Esp when US stocks are so much more expensive than foreign stocks and almost everyone is already overweight the US.
Igy - I haven't forgotten about shoveling snow at your house! Has it snowed in Idaho lately?
Sally, actually it has. The other night snowed, but gone by noon with golfers in full force. My son and I are going to hit Bogus Basin our local ski slope for some downhill tomorrow. I do think the Valley is about played out for snow this year. How about 2024, or double or nothing on our current bet?
Igy - you know I walk around here in Texas in the winter with shorts 95% of the time. I could not imagine living in the cold like you do. My stepson is at Michigan in grad school and HATES the cold. When I do come up to shovel snow I might have to get a warm jacket which I have but haven't worn in years.
Igy - I haven't forgotten about shoveling snow at your house! Has it snowed in Idaho lately?
Sally, actually it has. The other night snowed, but gone by noon with golfers in full force. My son and I are going to hit Bogus Basin our local ski slope for some downhill tomorrow. I do think the Valley is about played out for snow this year. How about 2024, or double or nothing on our current bet?
Igy - you know I walk around here in Texas in the winter with shorts 95% of the time. I could not imagine living in the cold like you do. My stepson is at Michigan in grad school and HATES the cold. When I do come up to shovel snow I might have to get a warm jacket which I have but haven't worn in years.
But no one, no one, not even the love-twins Flaggy and Sally, the two self-proclaimed greatest investors of all time with untold fortunes they will tell you about, could have seen that coming after a decade of overseas greatly underperforming US stocks.
Sectors will fluctuate as might be expected.
But the mass mover of the last decade offered up an opportunity to buy a dip in an otherwise epic wealth-building ascension. Admittedly, not without some risk and no guarantees, since there never are, but to my mind it may be this simple - the tremendous bull market of the last 13 years was interrupted with pesky inflation and the Fed promising to real it in with interest rate hikes. It was doing so aggressively, and to most everyone's consternation, signs of strong growth in the economy (as evidenced in employment numbers particularly) persist even though the pesky inflation was slowing. So the Fed had to keep promising to be keep rates high for longer and be persistent about rate increases.
Then, and this is the new part, weakness in the banking sector sent a signal to the Fed of some unintended and rather serious consequences to what they were doing, and perhaps there were limits. So, investors see a Fed now finally easing off, and move in. My bet: this rebound has legs.
well the hard part is always changing a thesis.
From 2000-2010 the SP500 made zero dollars and emerging markets rose at mayb 15% per year. It has been a pendulum, and we may have just seen the first year of the next 10-year swing, with non-US outperforming US.
I don't know. But thinking the next 10 years will follow the same pattern as the last 10 years is a dangerous plan. it's usually a pendulum. It's been a year. it might stretch to 2 years, then five. When you acknowledge the pendulum?
Should be somethign to think about anyway. Esp when US stocks are so much more expensive than foreign stocks and almost everyone is already overweight the US.
Fair point.
As one who likes building positions over time rather than in large jumps, I could see broadening the portfolio in the direction of overseas. As always, I appreciate your input and it's now firmly on my radar.
Sally, actually it has. The other night snowed, but gone by noon with golfers in full force. My son and I are going to hit Bogus Basin our local ski slope for some downhill tomorrow. I do think the Valley is about played out for snow this year. How about 2024, or double or nothing on our current bet?
Igy - you know I walk around here in Texas in the winter with shorts 95% of the time. I could not imagine living in the cold like you do. My stepson is at Michigan in grad school and HATES the cold. When I do come up to shovel snow I might have to get a warm jacket which I have but haven't worn in years.
I believe I told you I lived in Texas 8/1982 thru 8/1996: Brenham, Kingsville, and McAllen. Kingsville and Brenham were humid hot, with McAllen a dry heat. McAllen would get dry heat from the Mexican deserts. In all three I hung Christmas lights in the 90s, which just doesn’t seem right. We are pretty much four seasons here, but high desert makes winter dry humidity and comfortable; something I assume Michigan is not.
Report: “DB, Barclays, SG sub cds spreads blowing out. Now wider than on March 15th. Hearing it’s party due to counterparty hedging and weakness in bonds but the move is really violent.”
Report: “DB, Barclays, SG sub cds spreads blowing out. Now wider than on March 15th. Hearing it’s party due to counterparty hedging and weakness in bonds but the move is really violent.”
Just checked my brokerage offering of short term CDs, and it is exactly identical to what it was over the last few days, at least in terms of the ones offering the most attractive Primary offering, non-callable rates, which admittedly aren't the banks you mentioned.
Banks need to lock up deposits, want your money; market rates. What I am referring to is counter party risk. Or banks questioning doing business with other banks. Likely related to wipe out of CS At1 bonds, therefore European banks. Different than what is going on with FRC or PACW.
Aren’t you the same guy that predicted AAPL would bottom out in 2023?
Perhaps investors are sadly mistaken if one thinks 1) 2023 is over, and 2) that AAPL will not reach new 52 week lows by year end. Investors are fooled by the quality argument, since all stocks will be influenced negatively by the current macro environment. And when an asset goes up driven by the previous cycle investment playbook, typically these assets underperform the market.
really we're hanging on with Apple and MSFT and NVDA and not a lot else.
Not a good time.
at least bonds are behaving as they are supposed to - that helps a lot.
Playing the volatility as well as managing risk. Bought TECS as low as $23.15 and sold as high as $24.59; did the same at best with SOXS $16.67 buy, and $18.23 sell. Problem is you are forced to manage positions the entire trading day.
schwab has a trunkload of long dated treasuries unfortunately. and the 10th largest bank in america. the worry is a bank run could start.
schwab says it has the rare ability to cover an entire bank run from all customers.
If that is true, then probably not a lot of reason to worry about Chuck Schwab. They got stuck with a lot of bonds that they have to wait on, is all.
Seems to me that big money is saying 'when there is smoke sell the stock and buy T-bills. No reason to lose 15% in a stock when we can get a perfectly acceptable and nearly risk-free 4% from the US government.
So a real stock picker will probably be able to get some good bargains here...stocks dumped over the side but that are fundamentally healthy. Schwab sounds like it might be in that category. I might buy some.
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