Could Rupp Beat Walmsley at Western States 100 Mile

I should add that me, "shootpost" who has been in this thread a huge supporter that Rupp would win, is myself an Ultra-runner.

Granted I have never done anything 50 miles+. But I have won enough 50k->50 mile ultras I have a pretty good idea of the challenges.

Rupp's fitness wins everytime.

Yes, rupp has been more muscular than Jim, see 2016. They have similar builds. Rupp is a rational trainer and has a very good discipline and can recover from injuries. Rupp is faster at the marathon, an event with very good transfer to the 100 mile distance on a course like WS. Rupp is good in the heat too. All things similar, like training and specifics and nutrition and planning, Rupp could beat Jim at WS. No contest.

Fanboy Dot Com wrote:

Walmsley owns the CR at the oldest 100 miler in the world. Do you think Rupp could stand a chance?

Walmsley has the 50 Mile WR, would he have caught Rupp if they had 24 more miles on Saturday?

Regarding WS, given enough time to train and adapt, probably. It would take more than a few months.

Most marathoners of Rupp’s caliber or better would handily beat JW at 50 mi on the roads or track, especially with a few months of specific training.

In MUT running, pacing, fueling, climbing and descending all take some practice, but all can be learned and are trainable.

I hope more elite marathoners move into trail running. Not all will be successful, but some will, and you will see huge amounts of time taken off course records. It helps that JW, Kilian and a few others have shown that one can make a good living on the trails.

WS has a lot of road for trail race.

shootpost wrote:

So let me ask?

Are you a some freak talent that can handle it? But not Rupp?

Yes it is an incredible challenge , I am in no way diminishing it. But everyone runs the same trail. What makes you think you or Jimmy can run it but Rupp can't? So then it comes down to fitness and Rupp is head and shoulders above jimmy.

But Rupp is not running trails.

He is a track runner who made a very successful transition to Marathons.

It is very unlikely that a transition to trail races would make Rupp as successful. He probably could finish shorter trail ultras in the top ten. But winning probably not.

What you guys totally underestimate is the skill involved running fast on trails especially technical trails.

Put $1M prize out there and big pay for top 25 and Walmsley would not finish top 20.

shootpost wrote:

The top ultra runners are very very dirty. Soviet Union doping levels.

There are two reasons why this is false.

1) There isn't enough money in Ultra Running warrant doping.

2) And who would pay for the drugs, or even make them accessible?

Wildhorse wrote:

As he is vastly more talented, Rupp could probably spank Walmsley hard at Western States if he trained for it.

Jim owes his victories and PRs to his fitness, not his mental toughness. Rupp must have way better general fitness, he'd just need to dial in the specifics.

Jim is a big fish in a small pond.

All of these posts are qualified with "if he trained for it". I'd be curious to see how Rupp would do if he just dropped into the WS100 with his "normal" training. World class distance runner. Perhaps the best American distance runner of all time. How would it go?

no contest as in he doesn't even finish. like most roadies, rupp is too fragile.

rupp has better things to do than running ultras LOL

ruppster wrote:

Put $1M prize out there and big pay for top 25 and Walmsley would not finish top 20.

If it would be a Western States like course Walmsley would be in the top 5 for sure.

Rupp probably wouldn't even finish.

In a more European setting with no pacers, Walmsley would finish top 20.

Rupp again probably wouldn't finish.

And that's me saying this. I am not a Walmsley fanboy at all.

bigmammashouse wrote:

Wildhorse wrote:

As he is vastly more talented, Rupp could probably spank Walmsley hard at Western States if he trained for it.

Jim owes his victories and PRs to his fitness, not his mental toughness. Rupp must have way better general fitness, he'd just need to dial in the specifics.

Jim is a big fish in a small pond.

All of these posts are qualified with "if he trained for it". I'd be curious to see how Rupp would do if he just dropped into the WS100 with his "normal" training. World class distance runner. Perhaps the best American distance runner of all time. How would it go?

DnF with an new injury. You should see how people fare at their first 100 with proper training. Lol.

Watch Walmsley's wheels come off wrote:

shootpost wrote:

So let me ask?

Are you a some freak talent that can handle it? But not Rupp?

Yes it is an incredible challenge , I am in no way diminishing it. But everyone runs the same trail. What makes you think you or Jimmy can run it but Rupp can't? So then it comes down to fitness and Rupp is head and shoulders above jimmy.

But Rupp is not running trails.

He is a track runner who made a very successful transition to Marathons.

It is very unlikely that a transition to trail races would make Rupp as successful. He probably could finish shorter trail ultras in the top ten. But winning probably not.

What you guys totally underestimate is the skill involved running fast on trails especially technical trails.

I'm surprised that people believe there is such a direct correlation between the marathon and the WS 100. Descending down a rocky, uneven trail is only partially a learned skill. If I had run a WS 100, there would have been a 100% chance I would have rolled my ankle and had to DNF.

shootpost wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

There is no guaranty that Rupp can handle the fueling, either. There is a genetic component to that as well.

I would put my money on a guy who can handle fueling to run 4:49 pace for 26 miles can figure out fueling for a longer race.

Tom Johnson was the American record holder for 100K for several years. He couldn't break 2:20 and was about a 31:00 guy, yet he ran 6:30 compared to Max King's 6:28.

Ultra > Marathon wrote:

Just based on how strong Rupp looked, I would say that Rupp, if adequately trained, would set a CR that was untouchable for decades. Not only did he run ridiculously fast on a difficult course in crappy conditions, he looked strong, composed, and in control the whole time. I think he is much stronger than people give him credit for. He'll never do it, but it would be incredible to see him train for and race a WS100.

This is in intriguing debate, that we'll likely never get the answer. Rupp is absolutely world class at what he does, as is Jim. He proved that on Saturday. For a 1st road marathon debut, he looked damn strong. Some guys are great at the 5/10k that never translate well to the marathon. Or can blaze a HM, but never connect the dots again back to the marathon. I've thrown this around before, but I'd love to see road elites throw down at something like Lake Sonoma or JFK more often. Sonoma has more climbing, but it would be so much fun to see what happens.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Watch Walmsley's wheels come off wrote:

But Rupp is not running trails.

He is a track runner who made a very successful transition to Marathons.

It is very unlikely that a transition to trail races would make Rupp as successful. He probably could finish shorter trail ultras in the top ten. But winning probably not.

What you guys totally underestimate is the skill involved running fast on trails especially technical trails.

I'm surprised that people believe there is such a direct correlation between the marathon and the WS 100. Descending down a rocky, uneven trail is only partially a learned skill. If I had run a WS 100, there would have been a 100% chance I would have rolled my ankle and had to DNF.

I like how every ultra runners thinks that they are superior to every traditional runner and Kenyan out there. You act like other runners have never run on a trail in their lives. You act like Kenyans do all their training on concrete at low altitude. About 9% of the roads in Kenya are paved and they are not baby bottom smooth. Kaptagat, where they do most of their training is at about 7800 feet and is mostly rocky dirt roads.

It doesn't matter if Rupp could beat JW at western states 100 or not. Rupp is vastly superior in the track events and JW is (in theory) superior at 50 miles and up. The logical common ground is the marathon, where, as we saw Saturday, Rupp is world class and JW is certainly not. JW lacks the foot speed and natural talent to be a top U.S. marathoner and that was clear. He is a beast at ultra stuff, for whatever that's worth.

wait up, you think that trail running means unpaved gravel roads or your local park trails?

there's your problem.

comedyrelief wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

I'm surprised that people believe there is such a direct correlation between the marathon and the WS 100. Descending down a rocky, uneven trail is only partially a learned skill. If I had run a WS 100, there would have been a 100% chance I would have rolled my ankle and had to DNF.

I like how every ultra runners thinks that they are superior to every traditional runner and Kenyan out there. You act like other runners have never run on a trail in their lives. You act like Kenyans do all their training on concrete at low altitude. About 9% of the roads in Kenya are paved and they are not baby bottom smooth. Kaptagat, where they do most of their training is at about 7800 feet and is mostly rocky dirt roads.

I've never run an ultra or a fan of the sport, but there is not a direct correlation between the marathon and the WS 100. If there was, we would know that Kipchoge would hold off Bekele to win by 2 seconds in front of dozens of screaming fans.