2019 National XC rankings/predictions

v678 wrote:

Good point on Nathan Green, except you missed his best performance!

He ran the US #2 all time mile for sophomores this year--4:06.20. Behind Jeff See who ran just a few hundreths faster and ahead of Webb/Ryun/et al. He could definitely be in the mix.

Yeah, it looks like Nathan Green is looking to be the fastest junior in the nation in XC and definitely has the potential to finish in the top 10 at NXN.

Slightly bold prediction:

1. Matt Strangio

2. Cole Sprout

3. Nico Young

Californiaaaaa wrote:

Slightly bold prediction:

1. Matt Strangio

2. Cole Sprout

3. Nico Young

Nico or Cole will take the win

Predictions wrote:

Wez Coz wrote:

What are the California teams looking to make it?

Boys: Great Oak/Newbury Park

Girls: Great Oak/Saugus

Saugus girls look like they’ll be ridiculous. Will CA girls get two wildcards and of so what teams are most likely?

It will go Great Oaks 1, Saugus 2, St. Francis 3, Canyon Anaheim 4. 2 at larges.

Boys will be Great Oaks 1, Newberry Park 2, Dana Hills 3, Dublin 4. 2 at larges.

California will be very good as usual.

I remember hearing in one of the Milesplit interviews that Colin Sahlman has a freshman brother coming in this fall, and that Nico Young has 2 coming in, and that these rising freshmen ran faster than their older siblings did as 8th graders.

Newbury Park currently has a large 4-5 gap, but it will be interesting if one of these freshmen can close it, which is very tough to do for a freshman. They have a good sophomore class too. Looks like NP won’t stop being able to contend for one of the NXN qualifying spots for a while now.

If you're looking for surprises, watch out for Judson Greer from Melissa Texas. Insane improvement from 2018 XC to 2019 Track and he went 15:02 during his Sophomore XC season. His next two seasons will be something to watch.

gwfrick21 wrote:

If you're looking for surprises, watch out for Judson Greer from Melissa Texas. Insane improvement from 2018 XC to 2019 Track and he went 15:02 during his Sophomore XC season. His next two seasons will be something to watch.

He actually beat Edwin Gomez (NXN individual qualifier) at state in both XC and track, so he’ll be solid, especially in 2020.

Arcadia (California) made it to NXN every year from 2009 to 2013 and won 2 NXN titles when O’Brien coached.

Great Oak and Newbury Park are basically becoming the new Arcadia of California. While Brosnan and Soles are coaching, these 2 teams are going to compete for a spot at NXN and be one of the best teams in the nation on a yearly basis for a while.

Leftfootrjnr wrote:

Californiaaaaa wrote:

Slightly bold prediction:

1. Matt Strangio

2. Cole Sprout

3. Nico Young

Nico or Cole will take the win

Agreed. If not one of those two guys, I think I'd be inclined to pick one of the younger guys like Green, or Culpepper, who wasn't really running until sophomore year. Probably a bit more room to improve. But I think it'll be Young or Sprout.

While Strangio may be roughly as fit as those two guys (or just a bit behind), his race strategy always seems a bit headstrong. Tends to lead and fade. Kind of reminds me of John Dressel when Dressel was in HS--very headstrong, goes for it, but fades to 4th or 5th. Which is still super good..

CA has new powerhouse teams wrote:

Arcadia (California) made it to NXN every year from 2009 to 2013 and won 2 NXN titles when O’Brien coached.

Great Oak and Newbury Park are basically becoming the new Arcadia of California. While Brosnan and Soles are coaching, these 2 teams are going to compete for a spot at NXN and be one of the best teams in the nation on a yearly basis for a while.

Great Oak will be there like they've been for several years, although some injuries to key runners this past track season may provide some uncertainty. Newbury Park looks to have a very solid four, but also seems to have little room for error or injury (lack of depth). Teams like Bellarmine and Dana Hills also seem very talented and also very deep. It looks to be a very interesting Fall in CA with some great competition, but I wouldn't expect it to be a shoe in for either Great Oak or Newbury Park.

My bet would be on Great Oak and Dana Hills to get the auto qualifiers and Newbury and Bellarmine to get at large bids. That would be a solid four to represent CA!

There’s plenty of teams that have the potential to make the jump in ny this year but if I had to make a choice I’d put my money on Shenendehowa or burnt hills considering their depth and track performances, but don’t count out Corning or beaver river, these two teams lack depth but have the coaching and potential to get that 2nd place spot.

Here are the top Texas boys teams times from this track season. Do note: this does not take into account an athlete's personal best, injured athletes, and only track the top times reported for each team this year. Both the Woodlands and Southlake Carroll are looking like they will have two very strong teams next year.

The Woodlands

4:15/9:11

4:16/9:13

4:36/9:29

4:22/8:53 for 3K (converts to around 9:33?)

4:36/9:39

4:35/9:49

9:55

Southlake Carroll

4:19/9:16

4:25/9:30

4:30/9:35

4:26/9:39

4:28/9:47 (also ran 15:28 for 5K in track)

4:26/9:56

4:42/9:57

4:39/9:58 (also ran 15:48 for 5K in track)

4:34/10:01 (also ran 15:33 for 5K in track)

Flower Mound

9:07

4:32/9:35

4:28/9:37

4:44/9:49

several low 10:0x guys (one of which ran a 4:3x)

Eastwood

4:24/9:22

4:29/9:26

4:41/9:57

4:30/9:58

4:51/9:59

Also should note: only kept athletes that are underclassmen.

Ny runner 16 wrote:

There’s plenty of teams that have the potential to make the jump in ny this year but if I had to make a choice I’d put my money on Shenendehowa or burnt hills considering their depth and track performances, but don’t count out Corning or beaver river, these two teams lack depth but have the coaching and potential to get that 2nd place spot.

Northport is another team than can challenge for a qualifying spot at the NY region. They have the best top 5 returning 3200 times according to Milesplit. They are returning 5 runners under 10:18 (2 under 9:40). Although I don’t think they will beat FM. No NY team will. FM just doesn’t have 3200 times from this spring recorded on Milesplit for 5 returners.

Xavier has a better chance to make it than Beaver River does if they choose to do NXR. They beat Beaver River last year at McQuaid and return all of their top 5 from that race. They just didn’t do NXR last year.

What regions besides California will be getting at-large bids this fall?

On the boys and girls side

Shen and Burnt Hills are losing some quality seniors, but they had youngsters that weren’t in their top 7 last year that stepped out of nowhere.

coachcommentsnicely wrote:

#LA-sidekick wrote:

Once we get to the end of September it's not hart to tell who will dominate. That being said, we definitely know what teams have a shot at winning already.

I doubt it. Remember in 2017 when Jesuit was ranked top 15 in the nation all year long and then finished 5th at NXR?

End of September we will have an idea on who the top teams should be. A lot of the schools in the Nw don’t travel very far, or out of state, so it’s harder to compare.

Jesuit is the only boys NW team that’s not in Washington that has a chance to make it to NXN. At least it’s the only one. I doubt that Jesuit races top WA teams before NXR.

coachcommentsnicely wrote:

NXN Northwest has a variety of teams that can qualify, and there does not seem to be a current favorite. How they stack up against the rest of the nation is hard to tell. Not the powerhouse it use to be.

Heartland is another region that used to be a lot more of a powerhouse on the boys side than it has been in the last 3 years. They had 2 MN teams finish in the top 9 in 2014 (Wayzata finished second and Edina finished 9th. Sioux Falls Lincoln from Heartland got an at-large but got 21st). And 3 MN teams finished in the top 14 in 2015 (Hopkins 7th, Edina 13th, and Wayzata 14th. All 3 are in the same conference and section).