But even in the absence of helpful pacemaking, at 10000m Bekele can go it alone. At his WR in Ostrava, he led from 4000m on.
But even in the absence of helpful pacemaking, at 10000m Bekele can go it alone. At his WR in Ostrava, he led from 4000m on.
"7:20 is two 3:40's. 3:40 is approximately 7% slower than 3:26. 7% added onto 12:36 is about 13:30. Double that and you get 27:00."
Your logic is flawed. You forgot to account for the fact that as distance increases, the rate of slowdown decreases.
From 400m to 800m, the slowdown rate is 17.1%
From 800m to 1600m (convert from the mile wr), the slowdwon rate is 9.7%
As you said, from 1500m to 3000m, it is just under 7%
Notice that from 5000m to 10000m, it is about 4.3%.
Therefore, your assumption that a 7:20 is roughly worth 27:00 misses the mark.
You make two points: The first is actually half-way decent. The second at a minimum indicates poor reading skills and probably some mental deficiency.
My point was NOT that 7:20 was equivalent to 27:00, but that IF the spread between the 5 and 10 WR's were the same as the spread between the 15 and 3, THEN the WR for 10k would be about 27. How is this different from your conclusion? One way would be that the 15 is a much better record than the 5; which, in fact, it is. This brings me to your first point:
The reason that the spread between distances decreases as the distances increases is that long distance runners have far better endurance. When put like that the reason for this pattern seems obvious, but this point has some immediate less obvious (apparently..) consequences. Some of which we've seen in recent years. Twenty years ago, guys like Geb or Bekele would have been 15 guys primarily, maybe occasionally running 8. But as distance races have become more competitive and more prestigious, guys with good basic speed have been motivated to train for endurance and move up. Conversely, it was rare back in those days to see anyone with sub 50 400 speed toe the line in an international 5 or 10k. If you could get a few 44 400 guys to train for endurance, we'd see a sub-1:38 800. Similarly, ElG, if he hasn't lost too much in the last few years off his speed, will run 7:16-7:17 (modulo the whole p.e.d. issue, of course).
salah what are you 12 years old? The distances weren't presitigious? In many respects the distances were probably more presitigious twenty years ago than now. Why the heck are there so few 10000s on the track and most championship 10000s are finals only???
Californian's points are a lot more logical than yours. By your logic, we should have 10 flat guys training to run a 43 second 400, then training them to be 1:36 800 runners then 3:40 milers. "just train them endurance" god that's laughable.
goes to wrote:
salah what are you 12 years old? The distances weren't presitigious? In many respects the distances were probably more presitigious twenty years ago than now. Why the heck are there so few 10000s on the track and most championship 10000s are finals only???
Californian's points are a lot more logical than yours. By your logic, we should have 10 flat guys training to run a 43 second 400, then training them to be 1:36 800 runners then 3:40 milers. "just train them endurance" god that's laughable.
I agree. Salah, YOU ARE AN IDIOT.
"You make two points: The first is actually half-way decent. The second at a minimum indicates poor reading skills and probably some mental deficiency."
Its always nice to read a cheap insult like the one you just made because resorting to insults shows that your argument is not strong enough to stand alone. You are pointing out that if the spread between the 5 and 10 wrs was the same as the 15 and 3 then the 10k wr would be 27:00 precisely to show that the 3k wr should be faster. Thus, your assumption is that the rate of slowdown from 1500m to 3k should be closer to that of the 5k to 10k. Please show me some evidence that that is the case.
Salah,
Dr Stein diagnosed you (without lab work) that you are an "IDIOT". Yet you identify someone who is accusing you to be not even a teenager (12 yr old) having a "mental deficiency"
So whom should we believe here, the doctor, you or your other nemesis? As the accusation and name-calling continuous, we will sit down and read the fracas. But I sure hope you'r not 12 yrs old.
Oh for God's sake: I wasn't comparing the prestige of the 10k today vs twenty years ago. I was comparing the relative prestige of the 15 to the 10 today vs twenty years ago. Coe or Cova? Yifter or Ovett? Ryun/Keino or Temu? For that matter -despite the magnitude of Viren's accomplishment in Montreal - I would still say that Walker was better known among the general public than he. The romance of the 4 min mile made its metric equivalent THE glamour event among distance races well into the eighties.
As for your other "point": Of course there's a limit. Do you really think I was arguing that the best guys in the 40 will be the best 100 milers ( to extend your point to ITS logical conclusion...)? Or - more likely - do you think that to knock down a straw man is the same as making a compelling argument? My point is that to succeed in the long track races now requires the sort of speed that would have been sufficient to win the 8 or 15 20 years ago, and that had Komen or Bekele been running then they would have run those distances instead of the 5 or 10. Geb is the perfect example of this. The fact that these guys have better basic speed is what has caused the records to tumble as they have (again modulo p.e.d.s) Finally, of course it's not automatic that the guy with better basic speed will always win. That is, the statement "to run a WR 800 it is sufficient to run close to the WR in the 400" is obviously false. The converse (look it up...), though (and not just for those pair of distances), is increasingly true.
Do you really want to say that any argument which includes an insult must be weak?!?
You got my point about the spread this second time but above you wrote that I was arguing that the 3k record was equivalent to a 27 10k:
"Therefore, your assumption that a 7:20 is roughly worth 27:00 misses the mark.'
Please oh wise old one, explain yourself....
Finally, let's take a look at some stats, shall we?
Year Distance ~%difference
1970: 400/800 24
15/3000 9
1980 4/8 19
15/3000 8
1990 4/8 18
15/3000 8
2000 4/8 17
15/3000 7
The trend is slow but clear. The difference measured as a percentage is decreasing. I expect this trend to continue for reasons I list above. I'm interested to hear why anyone thinks it will stop or reverse.
I am getting some different numbers than you. I don't remember the world records in 1970, but I know them off hand from 1980 onwards:
1980 400m: 43.86 800m: 1:42.33
1980 1500m: 3:32.1 3000m: 7:32.1
1990 400m: 43.29 800m: 1:41.73
1990 1500m: 3:29.45 3000m: 7:29.45
2000 400m: 43.18 800m: 1:41.11
2000 1500m: 3:26.00 3000m: 7:20.67
1980 400/800 differential=16.6%
1990 400/800 differential=17.5%
2000 400/800 differential=17.1%
1980 1500/3000 differential=6.6%
1990 1500/3000 differential=7.3%
2000 1500/3000 differential=6.9%
From this data, there is no clear trend since 1980
I left Hicham out because I don't think El Guerrouj had/has much interest in the 3000m record. I agree that Hicham also has the ability but not the interest and if he is to break it his time is running out. If the question was who do you think had the most potential to break the record then my answer would be Hicham El Guerrouj. Kenenisa and Augustine may not get such a formiable record as it will take their top fitness, great pacing, and favorable weather conditions (miss one of those and no chance to break Komen's 3000m WR.)
Anyone got the actual splits for the 3k WR run?
I only remember the 1st mile going in 3:55
can anyone post the record setting splits for the 3000m?
HA HA
Nice numbers Californian.
Salah......we are waiting. Do you have some different #'s based on the "new math" ?
Salah, so far you've proven no point with your %'s game, except that you are not very good at math.
Also note that if we if use the 400m sea level world record (43.86 was run at Mexico City's high altitude and it throws off the relationship because of the advantage of racing sprints at altitude), the 400m/800m pattern looks like this:
1970: 400m: 44.5 800m 1:44.3
1980: 400m: 44.26 800m: 1:42.33
1990: 400m: 43.29 800m: 1:41.73
2000: 400m: 43.18 800m: 1:41.11
1970 differential= 17.2%
1980 differential= 15.6%
1990 differential= 17.5%
2000 differential=17.1%
In other words, the differential is practically the same in 2005 as it was 35 years ago.
I do think Bekele can run under the current 3k world record held by Daniel Komen. His 5k time eqivalent by my calculations puts him at less than a second away from doing so. It is a matter of being in the right race with the right pacing. Tinman
Correction, the actual equivalent by my charts is a tad over 1 second above the 3k best. So, Bekele will have to improve a bit, but not a lot. Tinman