Donavan Brazier Just Broke 4:00

Ummm wrote:

3:59.30 wrote:

That doesn't add up.

3:04.76+54.54= 3:59.30 etc

I don't know his exact splits but there's some simple maths wannabe smartass.

What he meant was that HE wasn't able to add it up.

Fixed It for You wrote:

Coached Fitness Blogger wrote:

Americas stupidness is allways reflected on this websight.

America's*

stupidity*

always*

website*

Lol. You didn't fix it, you took the bait and proved his point.

My gut tells me Brazier will turn out to be a head case. I think he'll be an Alan Webb type ..... loads of talent, will time trial well and do well on the national stage but will always choke on the world stage. I hope I'm wrong. What do you think?

ocin12 wrote:

My gut tells me Brazier will turn out to be a head case. I think he'll be an Alan Webb type ..... loads of talent, will time trial well and do well on the national stage but will always choke on the world stage. I hope I'm wrong. What do you think?

My gut tells me when he makes a world/Olympic team, idiots like you will say he shoulda made the final, then when he makes a world final you'll say he shoulda medalled, and when he medals you'll say he shoulda won gold, etc

If he retired RIGHT NOW he would have more accomplishments than you could ever even dream of having....

NCAA Champ, USA Champ, NCAA Record, 1:43, Sub 4, World Team.

Beast.

xcvxcvxcv wrote:

I think that outdoors, Jim Ryun once ran something like 3:55 and then split 46 an hour later. Maybe a very muddy track.

And there were two feet of snow on both sides of his feet.

Yeah.... wrote:

xcvxcvxcv wrote:

I think that outdoors, Jim Ryun once ran something like 3:55 and then split 46 an hour later. Maybe a very muddy track.

And there were two feet of snow on both sides of his feet

nope

no snow

it was when he was still 18y !!!

it was on total sludge, so bad that they didn't even attempt to hold the LJ that day on the sludge & brought in a conveyor belt from a local silo for makeshift runup

it was also damn cold with guys wearing their tracksuits until last possible moment

here is full vid of that mile & brief clip of that 46+ relay towards the end where he did some huge amount of running extra wide & made up 20 yards to win !!!

back to Don

his quickest run last year was 1'43.95 when 2nd to nijel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdfTDk8tbFk

far from perfect run

- too quick at 200, with clock-adjusted 24.6, which is pace for 1'41.4 !!!

( remember, Big-Man in then 1'41.09WR went thru in 24.5 !!!

moral - don't go thru in 24-mid unless capable of running 1'41-flat )

- he got no serious drafting to bell as nijel too far ahead &/or too wide , not always directly ahead

he got some drafting 2nd lap but that was little & not enough to make up for loss on 1st lap

- he ran seriously wide on last bend, ~ 2m costing some serious tenths

- in homestretch there was some "quit" as he knew he wasn't going to catch nijel which again cost tenth or 2

( Don obviously not concerned about time - he was trying for win & had some quit when that was not possible )

conclusion :

certainly that day in ideal paced/drafted to bell only, route-1 run he was looing at

~ 1'43.5

the question is : how much improvement can he expect with this better mile endurance ?

the improvement is based on physics & assumes he still has/will have his basic 400 speed unchanged by summer, which is ungenerous, when at still 20y, he may even improve his speed along with this better endurance

anyhows, assume 400 is same

the physics is, that with unchanged 400 speed, the relative improvement in doubling distance from say 800 to a mile ( actually 1600 but mile is close enough to it ) assuming the higher distance is some quality clocking ( not some 5'00 rubbish for him as an elite ) but nearer 4-flat, the expected improvement in 800 is from logarithmic relationships of speeds

1 / ((1600/800)^2)

=

1/4

that means, for every 4s improvement he has made in the mile since last year, he can expect 1/4 of this over 800 or 1s

if we believe his flat-out mile improvement since last year is 4 - 6s

-> improvement this year in 800 of 1.0 - 1.5s

he was capable of 1'43.5 last year at best in london diamond league ( certainly wouda been in that shape when winning trials )

-> expected 800 time next year of

~ 1'42.0 - 1'42.5

it all depends entirely on how much he believes his mile has improved upon since last year & remember this assumes his 400 speed won't improve in a maturing, strengthening guy who is still only 20y...

well done Brazier!

Michigan is rooting for you.

Manzano runs 4:03.49

52 second close in that 3:56 on dirt. too bad they have only about 17 seconds of his relay race. in the 4x440y he did make up a lot of distance and was starting out in the third lane and ran in the 2nd lane a good deal on turns.

Brazier looks so easy and smooth in that mile that there is a great deal of potential for him to drop a lot of time. His ability as a miler should be recognized, because he might be able to beat just about any American at the distance, maybe medal. 1:41-42 should absolutely be in his crosshairs in the 800m next year but he really needs to jump into a fast or setup 1500m or mile as well next summer and see what he can do.

xcvxcvxcv wrote:

52 second close in that 3:56 on dirt.

no

it is important to be accurate

a no-longer-free-article from Tribune had it at 55.1y

too bad they have only about 17 seconds of his relay race. in the 4x440y he did make up a lot of distance and was starting out in the third lane and ran in the 2nd lane a good deal on turns

yes

admirable that someone else realises there was some huge extra run on that sludge !!!

also very importantly, i noted in Tribune article before it PPVed that it was 60F

that is not 440y weather !!!

that is ideally 80 - 85F

it was ~ 25F too cold for optimal 1 lap, probably worth a good handful of tenths compared to ideal 80 - 85, in my considerable observational experience probably 0.4 - 0.5s...

xcvxcvxcv wrote:

52 second close in that 3:56 on dirt. too bad they have only about 17 seconds of his relay race. in the 4x440y he did make up a lot of distance and was starting out in the third lane and ran in the 2nd lane a good deal on turns.

What are you talking about! He didn't finish that mile in 52 sec on last lap. The official 3/4 split was 3:00.5, making his last 440 55.3. That's 3 secs out.

In the relay you see Ryun on screen for about 15/16 secs. You see the first couple of strides of first bend, and he's moving in from outside of lane 1/line with lane 2 as the camera cuts. You then see him appear on the 2nd bend from a distance so far away it's impossible to suggest he is in lane 2. You see about 4 secs on that bend, which is about a quarter of the total bend. In total you see Ryun for about 1/8 of the duration of him running the bends, so it is nonsense to state 'he ran in the 2nd lane a good deal on turns'.

Besides, this was a 6 lane track, run on a 440yd (402.336m) oval and the start and finish was half way down the straight, meaning the configuration couldn't possibly be 116/84! All in all, 3 reasons there, as suggested by Calculo, to invalidate his performances.

If any other athlete had run a hand timed 46.9, with only 16 secs of it televised, on a non 'standard' configurated track, with 6 lanes and on 402.336 m oval, he would have laughed at it's relevance and validity.

Oh the irony of Calculo saying the Oslo pre 1985 config was mickey mouse and then using this race as an example of how great Ryun was! And then uses some hand time (it's amazing how many athletes have a relay split pb ending in .9) as the basis for him being capable of running 44.00

Let's not mention the LJ runway that you can clearly see on the infield which shows that his story is questionable.

PS - Ryun was great - but he was never capable of 44.00/1:38

PSS - Agree that Brazier will run 1:42.5 this summer if he stays healthy

JRinaldi wrote:

Oh the irony of Calculo saying the Oslo pre 1985 config was mickey mouse and then using this race as an example of how great Ryun was! And then uses some hand time (it's amazing how many athletes have a relay split pb ending in .9) as the basis for him being capable of running 44.00

Let's not mention the LJ runway that you can clearly see on the infield which shows that his story is questionable.

PS - Ryun was great - but he was never capable of 44.00/1:38

PSS - Agree that Brazier will run 1:42.5 this summer if he stays healthy

LOL. Yes, I doubt he can even see the irony of what he writes. Although I would be inclined to call it something other than ironic, but that will do.

I can see Brazier running 1:43 flat or perhaps just under, but I'd like to see a few more races before I would predict 1:42.5. Though you've probably seen more of him race over in the US, so I will go along with your expert coaching eye.

out in lane 4 !!!

what utter drivel !!!

he is in lane 4 when he takes stick !!!

how clueless are you ???

is this a joke ???

no one said he was in lane 2 then

it does show he was running outside guy !

that is extra distance more !

yes

drivel

you assumed that he pulled in-out every opportunity he had !?

at 18y that is rubbish !!!

at 18y, you run missile straight-ahead trajectory, trying to blast guys ahead, which never allows means dipping behind & out again

your assertion is nonsense

what is this utter total drivel ???

i don't care where a race starts

it has to be 400m or 440y

this was

if anything, this nonsense predilection for starting races 1/2 way in straight upset athlete's rhythm !!!

it's absurd nowdays to imagine relay 1/2-way start on straight then quickly changing cadence to lean into bend !!!

it upsets rhythm & inevitably faster on standard 116/84 with exchange at finish line !!!

utter drivel !!!

you think a 440y is a reason for denying a performance ???

you have no clue about the sport

utter nonsense

46.9y on total sludge with huge amount of wide running, unlikely ever to have seen sliver of "tight in lane-1" ever !!! in nonsense 60F, 25F from "proper" 440y temperature, with a 3'55.8 in his legs from few hours before, which on that sludge was worth at very worst without accounting for uneven pace/lack of drafting/wide running on a '70s track

~ 3'47.8 !!!

& he ran this at 18y !!!

& he ran a 46.9y few hours later !!!

calculo wrote:

back to Don

his quickest run last year was 1'43.95 when 2nd to nijel

....

conclusion :

certainly that day in ideal paced/drafted to bell only, route-1 run he was looing at

~ 1'43.5

the question is : how much improvement can he expect with this better mile endurance ?

There is no point in arguing with you because you have never once tried to see that you did not have all the information initially and that sometimes people are just trying to help you to learn, but he has always been a miler, for the last 7 years at least. He grew up near me, and you don't need that to be true to know this, but he was a miler all through HS ('12, '13, '14, '15) and he was outstanding at it (4:09 indoor and 4:07 outdoor). He also was a 15:25 5k XC runner. 20th in State Meet as a junior and 6th as a senior.