Allright Letsrun - Who wins, Ryan Hall 2007 or Galen Rupp in 2017

another gun owner here wrote:

Hall was a time trialer who raced for times.

I'm not sure who in this thread started this idea, but it is absurd. Did any of you actually watch Hall race? Hall ran his fast times DESPITE the fact that he was not running like a time trailer. He would take the lead in most of these races.

Good god, I get that Rupp is a good marathoner, but let's not completely reinvent who Ryan Hall was and what he accomplished. Meb was a much more accomplished marathoner than either of them, and he and Hall were about even in head to head races.

Actually, yes, Rupp beat several sub 2:07 marathoners. Look at the times of all the east Africans he competed against at the Olympics, Boston, AND Chicago (despite the slightly watered down field in Chicago.) Also, the mindset of the entire Oregon Project is to go for the win, and let the fast time come as a consequence. Literally every track season (except for 2014 indoor and outdoor when Rupp chased records) Alberto/Rupp only care about being in the best position to WIN. Not time. The time-trial style of racing that Hall always did would put him at a great disadvantage because he leaves himself vulnerable the whole race. PB's between the two kind of go out the window because we do not know how fast Rupp can really go (hope he goes to London to chase AR) so all we have are their individuals tactics.

LMG wrote:

Actually, yes, Rupp beat several sub 2:07 marathoners. Look at the times of all the east Africans he competed against at the Olympics, Boston, AND Chicago (despite the slightly watered down field in Chicago.) Also, the mindset of the entire Oregon Project is to go for the win, and let the fast time come as a consequence. Literally every track season (except for 2014 indoor and outdoor when Rupp chased records) Alberto/Rupp only care about being in the best position to WIN. Not time. The time-trial style of racing that Hall always did would put him at a great disadvantage because he leaves himself vulnerable the whole race. PB's between the two kind of go out the window because we do not know how fast Rupp can really go (hope he goes to London to chase AR) so all we have are their individuals tactics.

I keep hearing this, but then I remember that a guy ran 2:08 in the Olympics and a guy ran 2:09 at Boston, and Rupp didn't win either of those races. So it's probably a little more nuanced than that.

Here's another possibility: Maybe -- just maybe -- Ryan Hall was in a bunch of races where the winner ran somewhere around 2:03 to 2:05, which requires you to go out at 2:03 to 2:05 pace if you want to have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

Das.Wetter.Stinkt wrote:

Rupp.

Hall's Olympic Trials race was incredible, but it also proves the point. While he was on fire that day, he didn't need to go that fast.

I think I might agree with you about Rupp but I'm also 100% sure you didn't see the 2007 Olympic Trials race with this comment.

I like your general reasoning throughout the thread. I think the type of race would be very important, and based on our to-date evidence, I doubt Hall beats Rupp in a non-paced tactical marathon, though this is far from being a sure thing; I'd give Rupp maybe 70-30 chances. And not because of Rupp fandom, I'm a few years younger than Hall and was in his section and division in HS -- I'm very much in his corner.

The evidence? Rupp has lost to three marathoners: Kipchoge (obviously out of Hall's league); G. Kirui (2:06, WC champ, not at Kipchoge's level but hard to argue with two WMM victories in the same year); Lilesa (2:04, Tokyo win, OG and Chicago seconds, Chicago and WC thirds).

Hall is not on the level of those three guys; he's close to Kirui, but Kirui has two big wins (just this year) and is young and on a very obvious upward trajectory; and by all accounts Rupp was a part-time marathoner until post-Boston, maybe Rupp would have won out against Kirui at '17 WC or Chicago benefitting from full-time marathon training (or maybe not). I think we can all agree Rupp looked much better in Chicago than in his previous marathons, which doesn't mean he'd beat peak Hall, but he did beat a two-time WC champ with an OG silver, a 2:05:04 PR, and a faster, more consistent record than Hall (though possibly past his prime); Bernard Kipyego, a low 2:06 guy with two Amsterdam wins (not a major but always fast), and who has been throwing down 2:07s or faster since 2010; Lemma, who is no superstar but has a couple sub-Hall times; Ezekiel Chebii, who has a 59:05 HM best, a couple fast Amsterdam times (2:06:07).

Plus the obviously past-their-prime guys like WR holder Kimetto, multiple 2:05 guy Wilson Chebet, etc. Rupp gets flak for being picky, but when he enters a race you get something impressive 90% of the time. Skepticism around him and NOP is understandable and serious, and he may well try to duck Hall in this fantasy race, but I'd give him better than a 50/50 shot of winning head to head.

Great post -- agree with just about all that. I wonder what the betting odds would be in this race (assuming that every bettor were also following the sport in 2007/2008)? Your 70% chance for Rupp may be pretty close.

Hall ran more like a Kenyan, I think -- very aggressive early and prone to all sorts of mistakes and miracles. To further torture the thought experiment, if five Ryan Halls raced five Galen Rupps, the five Rupps would probably all finish pretty close to each other, and the Halls would range from 2:07 to DNF.

I also think Hall and Rupp would not enjoy racing each other. They'd definitely take each other out of their comfort zone. Rupp's never had to think about another American going through the half in 1:02, and Hall never had to consider what would happen if another American stayed in his shadow at that pace.

smd wrote:

Rupp, 99 times out of 100. Rupp knows how to race for place. Hall knew only how to run for time. The chances that he'd have a great day and simply run away from Rupp are slim.

Rupp is the sort who would rather win in 2:09 than be 5th in 2:05. Hall would rather be 5th in 2:05 than win in 2:09. The Rupp type wins races far more often.

What he said.

recent college grad wrote:

I just read the article on the main page comparing Hall in 2007 and Rupp this year. I was 13 in 2007 so didn't realize how good he was.

Who would have won?

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/10/comes-top-marathon-2007-ryan-hall-2017-galen-rupp-bad-tv-coverage-plus-another-german-star/

This is really no contest.

Hall's slowest time in WMM was 2:09, which is Rupp's PR. So even hall racing slow would beat Galen's current marathon ability, since we are basing it on 2017.

Galen's ability just isn't on that level, and might never be on that level. IN Ryan Hall's first marathon, he ran 2:08. In his second marathon, which was the olympic trails, he won with a time of 2:09. Galen won his olympic trial in 2:11.

In Hall's third marathon, he ran 2:06, the third fastest american marathon time!

His first time running boston he ran 2:09, and in his second time running boston he ran 2:08. In his third time racing boston, he ran 2:04, pacing Mutai to a course record of 2:03:02. That was the fastest time ever run in a marathon race at the time. However, the time isn't listed as a WR , because Boston isn't WR legal.

After that, he became injury prone. His hamstring went out on him, and he was never the same. He went through what Bekele is going through. HE could no longer handle the distance or run fast times.

No way in hell would Rupp stand a chance against a prime,healthy Ryan Hall. Ryan would soup up the pace to 2:08 and just coast, while Rupp would struggle trying to keep up, and by the 18th mile, Hall would crank it up again, and take it to 2:06 pace. And that would be all she wrote for Rupp.

I like Rupp. I think his very talented, but also very overrated. He has never in his life been able to keep up with fast, fast elite african runners. Hall has.

Again, and in form Rupp would get slaughtered against an in form, healthy Ryan Hall. It wouldn't be pretty.

Where are the next guy's with the mentality of a Ryan Hall? I don't see anyone coming up with his type of approach, maybe if Walmsley comes down to the marathon from the the ultras.

I thought you'd get some replies with that. Good try.

Agree with smd

Ahh, but Rupp has Olympic medals and American records Hall will never have...

mdog wrote:

Hall, no contest. He had guts that Galen will never have.

Midwest ponds wrote:

Ahh, but Rupp has Olympic medals and American records Hall will never have...

mdog wrote:

Hall, no contest. He had guts that Galen will never have.

Hall has the American record in the half and, but for a late career nationality change, the marathon. Those seem pretty relevant to the discussion.

The Galen Rupp of Chicago will run 2:05. He's in phenomenal fitness and has complete mastery of the distance. What you will see next is a Rupp that is not worried about keeping his 10,000m speed and he will crush the marathon, like he did in Chicago.

Remember, Hall was a 28:00 in his prime. He never cared about the track and/or 10,000m. Rupp has been on the fence the last couple of years, like Farah. Chicago showcased a focused Rupp and it was nasty. I think he can run sub-4:45/mi for the marathon right now.

In their prime? Hall, the natural vs. Rupp the assassin. The only issue with Hall is that he could never win. He could never beat the Africans. But Rupp has shown that ability over and over again, from the Olympics to Chicago. So in a major city race, I would pick Rupp.

On a long, hard tempo at altitude, mano-a-mano, on a Hall-esque day, it's hard keeping pace with Ryan.

lkjy wrote:

The only issue with Hall is that he could never win. He could never beat the Africans. But Rupp has shown that ability over and over again, from the Olympics to Chicago.

Rupp has won one major race. One. And it was a weaker field than any of Hall's 10+ marathons. (And I'm not counting the US marathon trials, but it wouldn't matter anyway because they each won one.) And he has lost to Africans along the way.

Hall beat many, many Africans. Very, very many.

Look, Rupp is the greatest American distance runner ever. His resume is far superior to Hall's. No one is denying that. But Hall was a marathon specialist who ran in a bunch of really fast races and was always competitive. Rupp is entering his mid-30s, and hasn't shown us what he can do in fast races. Meb is the best US marathoner ever, and he lost to Hall several times. Farah is maybe the greatest ever, and he managed a 2:08 in a fast race. It's a weird distance, and sometimes it turns out really talented guys just can't run faster than 2:08 pace.

This notion that Hall wasn't racing to win, or couldn't win, or whatever, is just insane. The guy competed in probably the most competitive marathon era ever, and he was legitimately feared by the Africans. That's something they both have in common.

Raysism wrote:

Midwest ponds wrote:

Ahh, but Rupp has Olympic medals and American records Hall will never have...

Hall has the American record in the half and, but for a late career nationality change, the marathon. Those seem pretty relevant to the discussion.

Not a late career change. Matter of fact, KK lived and trained in the US for his entire professional career.

Hall does not finish. Rupp does not start.

Can you name one WMM that Ryan Hall won in his career?Can you name one Olympics or World Championship in which Hall won a medal?Listen, Rupp is a proven winner, Hall was not. Plain and simple. Hall was the guy that went along for the ride and ran fast. Rupp can flat out kill you. I think Ritz even beat Hall at the Olympics stopping to stretch like three times in 2008.Love them both, but winning Chicago and Bronze in Rio are a big, big deal in the marathon world.

Raysism wrote:

[quote]lkjy wrote:

The only issue with Hall is that he could never win. He could never beat the Africans. But Rupp has shown that ability over and over again, from the Olympics to Chicago.

Rupp has won one major race. One. And it was a weaker field than any of Hall's 10+ marathons. (And I'm not counting the US marathon trials, but it wouldn't matter anyway because they each won one.) And he has lost to Africans along the way.

Hall beat many, many Africans. Very, very many.

I think we need to wait until Rupp hopefully races London this spring.

Halls half American record, London 2:06, and Boston 2:04 (wind aided) were incredible runs.

Rupp on the other hand spent his prime years developing into a Olympic medalist 10k runner. If he did the thon earlier I would say he would have a 2:05-06 already under his belt.

So I would say let's wait till after London to debate this.