Eight weeks to BQ attempt - advice?

On the advice of this thread, this morning I did four 2-mile repeats, with two minutes of rest in between each. I was going to do five, but misjudged the time I needed to start.

My paces were:

1 - 6:51

2 - 6:51

3 - 6:49

4 - 6:53

Did you look relaxed?

OP here. After doing 14 miles at 7:10 last week, I did 16 miles at an average 7:09 pace. Never more than 7:15 (that was through some rain). Last mile was my fastest at 6:56.

Marathon is November 4. Doing 65-70 mpw right now.

FWIW, a friend says I'm at risk of overtraining/injury if I don't back off some at this point.

IndyJ wrote:

FWIW, a friend says I'm at risk of overtraining/injury if I don't back off some at this point.

Possible you might want to take a step-back week. I do like how you are coming along. I think you have a good chance to make it. I do still think there is some chance you get to 20 miles on pace and then blow-up but I hope that doesn't happen.

What if the next two weeks I changed this run to a 10K run at around 6:30, then maybe made up the miles a bit during other runs or afterward as a cool down?

I don't want to lose endurance just when I've seemed to stabilize, but I also understand long runs at marathon pace can take some recovery time.

I wish I trusted my body more to maintain fitness levels. I'm probably 10 pounds overweight (5-9

1/2, 155-56 right now).

To be fair, this can be said of any runner running any marathon.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

I do still think there is some chance you get to 20 miles on pace and then blow-up but I hope that doesn't happen.

So my general thoughts on a cutback week is you should cut your mileage (20-25%) but maintain your intensity. I only did a few MP pace runs in my buildup. I followed Pfitzinger (I guess first edition) 18/70 plan from Advanced Marathoning. Although I added a few miles to it (ended up averaging 70ish and topping out at 84) and with a few changes for how I was feeling. So most of my long runs were started slow (MP+20%) and ended a little faster (MP+10%). Any chance of racing a 1/2 marathon in your buildup?

IndyJ wrote:

What if the next two weeks I changed this run to a 10K run at around 6:30, then maybe made up the miles a bit during other runs or afterward as a cool down?

I don't want to lose endurance just when I've seemed to stabilize, but I also understand long runs at marathon pace can take some recovery time.

I wish I trusted my body more to maintain fitness levels. I'm probably 10 pounds overweight (5-9

1/2, 155-56 right now).

Mr. Obvious wrote:

So my general thoughts on a cutback week is you should cut your mileage

(20-25%) but maintain your intensity.

I only did a few MP pace runs in my buildup. I followed Pfitzinger (I guess first edition) 18/70 plan from Advanced Marathoning. Although I added a few miles to it (ended up averaging 70ish and topping out at 84) and with a few changes for how I was feeling. So most of my long runs were started slow (MP+20%) and ended a little faster (MP+10%).

Any chance of racing a 1/2 marathon in your buildup?

There's a local one two weeks before the marathon.

I am 43. Here is my marathon progression from the last 3 years:

2015 - 3:42:32

2016 - 3:12:26

2017 - 3:04:16

So in my 40's I dropped over 30 minutes year over year, so it is very achievable.

My mileage and paces were much lower than yours as well, so I really think you got this.

Heck even this year when I got 3:04 I couldn't have hit some of the paces you are doing so you might as well shoot for sub 3:00 ;)

How have the past two weeks of training gone, IndyJ?

Mr. Obvious wrote:

How have the past two weeks of training gone, IndyJ?

Hey. Missed this post initially.

So ...

The marathon is on Nov. 4. I have three weekends left before it.

I've been between 72 to 74 miles consistently probably for 6-8 weeks now, and will have nine 20-plus mile runs under my belt after tomorrow, including three or four of 22 miles.

Anyway, here is a taste of my last few days:

Saturday - 22 @ 8:25

Sunday - Off

Monday - 3x3 miles @ 6:50, 6:50, 6:55

Tuesday - 13.1 @ 8:08

Wednesday - 10 @ 6:59 (Last five: 6:59, 6:50, 6:47, 6:36, 6:31)

Thursday (today) - 13.1 @ 8:00 (Last mile 7:18)

I'll do 6 and 22 over the next two days, not necessarily in that order, depending on the weather, etc.

I'm still hoping to make a run at 3:10.

Live to run wrote:

At 40 years old, anyone who wants to BQ convincingly is not really going to get it done on any less than 80 mpw.

Man, you gotta stop talking out your ass. I'm 41. Came back to running 11 months ago after a couple decades away, with a bit of seriousness only 8 months ago. Trained last 5 months on max of 50 mpw. Just ran my first marathon: 3:06. It was a bit hot/humid out.

But from what OP says, I agree...I don't think his training says 3:10. Blowing up consistently in training ain't a good sign. Clearly you can't handle that pace. Adjust accordingly.

hegellian wrote:

Live to run wrote:

At 40 years old, anyone who wants to BQ convincingly is not really going to get it done on any less than 80 mpw.

Man, you gotta stop talking out your ass. I'm 41. Came back to running 11 months ago after a couple decades away, with a bit of seriousness only 8 months ago. Trained last 5 months on max of 50 mpw. Just ran my first marathon: 3:06. It was a bit hot/humid out.

But from what OP says, I agree...I don't think his training says 3:10. Blowing up consistently in training ain't a good sign. Clearly you can't handle that pace. Adjust accordingly.

I haven't blown up consistently.

hegellian wrote:

But from what OP says, I agree...I don't think his training says 3:10. Blowing up consistently in training ain't a good sign. Clearly you can't handle that pace. Adjust accordingly.

OK, I see your paces have gotten faster. Why aren't you doing more runs at 7:15 though? Seems like too much is too slow or too fast.

I'm fully on board with you being capable of 3:10 on a good day with good conditions. I'm so happy you've allowed your mileage to inch upward each week. I agree with the poster earlier on in the thread who said that without doing 80+ MPW you would find that time difficult to reach. Your paces are right on target. Your long runs are decent. The only problem has been your general running volume and workout volume, which you've mitigated a bit these last few weeks. Keep it up.

Don't worry about what you are capable of doing today. It's about what it culminates to you being capable of on the day of the race.

One last thing. Don't get too focused on running the whole race exactly at pace. You need to be cool and confident to do well for 26.2 miles and sweating your splits is a surefire way to underperform. I've watched countless borderline marathoners teeter onto the bad side of what their threshold can handle for a marathon all because they have been a slave to their pace rather than just relax. You need to trust your training and relax. Even if you feel undertrained there is nothing more you can do on race day to address that training, so you better just relax and run what is natural. Having said that I think you're training is good and you should be confident.

hegellian wrote:

hegellian wrote:

But from what OP says, I agree...I don't think his training says 3:10. Blowing up consistently in training ain't a good sign. Clearly you can't handle that pace. Adjust accordingly.

OK, I see your paces have gotten faster. Why aren't you doing more runs at 7:15 though? Seems like too much is too slow or too fast.

It's been strategic the last couple weeks, to build some speed in shorter workouts. I was going below 7:14 on the race pace runs earlier because I don't trust GPS - it seemed to be slow last year on race day.

IndyJ wrote:

It's been strategic the last couple weeks, to build some speed in shorter workouts. I was going below 7:14 on the race pace runs earlier because I don't trust GPS - it seemed to be slow last year on race day.

Anyway, I wish you good luck. Maybe see you in Boston in 2019.

I know it's different for everybody, but just like I wouldn't ever say all you need to do to run 3:10 is 45 mpm, you should also disregard people saying you need to run 80 mpm. Crazy talk. I don't know what you need exactly, and neither does anyone here.

hegellian wrote:

IndyJ wrote:

It's been strategic the last couple weeks, to build some speed in shorter workouts. I was going below 7:14 on the race pace runs earlier because I don't trust GPS - it seemed to be slow last year on race day.

Anyway, I wish you good luck. Maybe see you in Boston in 2019.

I know it's different for everybody, but just like I wouldn't ever say all you need to do to run 3:10 is 45 mpm, you should also disregard people saying you need to run 80 mpm. Crazy talk. I don't know what you need exactly, and neither does anyone here.

I have no idea what's going to happen at mile 23 or 24. Last year I was closing in on an 8:00 pace and 3:30 and then just hit the wall hard at 24 or 25, as I recall. I won't know what will happen this year until I hit the last few miles and my legs either maintain or give out.

We'll see.