I do not mean to distort your position.
By advocating that the OP put his money in a money market account, it sounds like you are market timing. Would you characterize it a different way?
And I'm simply asking about your personal experience with market timing. It's one thing to advise others but I'm curious what you do with your money and the level of success you've had.
This Ghost fellow seems to be quite good at avoiding questions.
i am not concise wrote:
I do not mean to distort your position.
By advocating that the OP put his money in a money market account, it sounds like you are market timing. Would you characterize it a different way?
And I'm simply asking about your personal experience with market timing. It's one thing to advise others but I'm curious what you do with your money and the level of success you've had.
Let's ask you a questions. What was the success of your indexing in March 2009? Once you have evaluated that answer, it will give you insight into the answer to your question.
This werster fellow is somewhat of a dick.
For telling the truth? Just look at his last reply. Classic avoidance.
This is all hilarious. Really hope that Ghost is a troll, as it would be hilarious if he was and sad that he's offering such terrible advice if he's not
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Let's ask you a questions. What was the success of your indexing in March 2009? Once you have evaluated that answer, it will give you insight into the answer to your question.
You already know the answer to this question. I lost a lot then gained it back plus more.
What does that have to do with your personal investments? I'm asking if you have a track record of beating the market with your own money using an active investing strategy and you won't tell me.
"You already know the answer to this question. I lost a lot then gained it back plus more."
You should be prepared to lose it again.
Yes in answer to your question, and must be evaluated over a full market cycle.
This really isn't saying much. All investors should be prepared to lose....and gain. It's his this works.
This argument is why GFP makes so much sense to me. A long tenured, successful Wall Street fund manager wrote the book and says it's insane to pay anybody to manage your money. He doesn't give a bunch of vague suggestions like most financial advice books. He gives you ten specific funds and tells you exactly what percentage of money to put in each one. Reinvest all dividends. Rebalance to original percentages once a year. Done.
Don't argue with money managers about whether they beat the market. Every one will tell you they do. About 2 of a 100 actually do. Their business is built around lack of knowledge of the general population. A book such as GFP tells you exactly how to manage your money as successfully as a Wall Street "guru". Anybody who can figure out how to open a Fidelity account and use a calculator can utilize this strategy with no fees (other than the minuscule Vanguard fund fees).
What does that have to do with your personal investments?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I would argue that at current valuations T-Bills will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 10 years.
Igy
Treasury yields just hit a 7 month low.
He said next 10 years dufus.
i am not concise wrote:
What does that have to do with your personal investments? I'm asking if you have a track record of beating the market with your own money using an active investing strategy and you won't tell me.
Since Ghost doesn't have the stones to answer you, I'll do it for him. There are really only three plausible answer scenarios:
Almost worst case but likely scenario: No, he hasn't consistently beaten the market for his clients after fees are considered using his market timing efforts, Shiller P/E scripture, or anything else, and he is reluctant to admit this.
Worst case and equally likely scenario: No, he hasn't consistently beaten the market for his clients after fees are considered using his market timing efforts, Shiller P/E scripture, or anything else, but he thinks he has. Behavioral psychology 101 forms a major part of investing theory today, and in this case posits that Ghost suffers from hindsight bias, wherein he easily recalls a few cases where he beat the market (through blind luck or, as he calls it, "skill") but is quick to ignore the multitude of other times where the market beat him instead. This scenario is worse than the aforementioned because Ghost is convinced he's better than he is, which is demonstrably worse for his clients than simply being too afraid to admit he's no better than the market.
Absolute best case and most unlikely scenario: Ghost, through some combination of divine intervention and a series of lucky incidents, has managed to beat the market after fees on a consistent basis with his magic Shiller P/E ratio and other indicators which of course have been completely overlooked by the rest of the investing community. However, he will sadly not be able to repeat such awe-inspiring performance going forward.
As you can see, no matter which scenario is true, you are wasting your time entertaining the idea that Ghost can do anything for you.
Ferster wrote:
He said next 10 years dufus.
Exactly my point. What a ridiculous prediction with low rates falling even lower. He's obviously a troll.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Funnily enough, you and your clones make me the subject rather than the OP. It is much easier to distort my position and who I am. Rather weak and pointless arguments coming from your side.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Funnily enough, you and your clones make me the subject rather than the OP. It is much easier to distort my position and who I am. Rather weak and pointless arguments coming from your side.
wow, i have never seen a thread where one poster gets so absolutely discredited.
btw, Warren Buffet says given the current low interest rate environment, stocks are cheap. but, he also says he can't time the market. however, ghost, with his impressive edward jones CFP license, can time the market.
I guess you missed this:
A couple of points, the valuation metric that Warren Buffet called most important model is two standard deviations above the norm. Currently Buffett is holding over 30% of his portfolio in cash. Lastly, to paraphrase Warren "be fearfull when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearfull."
All three principles have been incorporated in one way or another in my comments.
Igy
I'm amazed at how this thread took off.
Okay, so,
1. Invest monthly and make sure I hit my max contribution as many years as I can.
2. Don't worry and stay in the market, it will rebound...and if it doesn't I'm assuming there's much larger/more serious problems and I wouldn't be able to retire anyway.
3. Don't worry about timing the market. But what if there is a day where there is a dip down? That little extra bit won't matter at all in the long run?
4. Should I open up anything else? I have a teacher's retirement fund through the state and something else that I haven't really paid attention to at all since it was opened. I haven't matched anything that was put in to either of those accounts. Should I start matching if I can? Is there anything else like a Roth IRA that would be good for me to open?
5. Read Gone Fishin'.