I know this is an old thread, but that's completely true. In HS, my threshold and VO2 max paces would virtually swap every season since I improved by about a minute in both the 3200 and 5k from sophomore to junior to senior year.
I'm sure that if I took EPO I may have been a national champion (joking...halfway) if I'd have been able to improve by 10 seconds in the 3200.
I know this is an old thread, but that's completely true. In HS, my threshold and VO2 max paces would virtually swap every season since I improved by about a minute in both the 3200 and 5k from sophomore to junior to senior year.
I'm sure that if I took EPO I may have been a national champion (joking...halfway) if I'd have been able to improve by 10 seconds in the 3200.
I think it depends on if you have a track/XC background, even if you were slow. You know how to run, pace, train, etc. Versus coming off the couch with no running knowledge.
I'd be curious to know if Canova's plans can be applied to baseline hobbyjoggers.
To the OP's question, probably not, but I think most people, men and women, can attain the following with the right training, diet, strength training, mentality and drive:
You are at least five minutes south of realistic. I don't even think the average schmo could run 20:00 even with training. I'd say around 21:00 - 22:00 would be a good time for a national average of all young males, with solid training.
If you start them around 16-18 years old, they have 4-6 years to train, the program is good, and they lead a lifestyle is conducive to training (nothing crazy, just sleep ~8 hours a night, eat a healthy balanced diet, non-smoker, etc), I'd bet at least 50% of the male population could run close to 16:30 for 5k. 15:00 is a whole different level of performance. You don't have to be super-talented, but a lot more people put in most of the above and aren't in striking range of a 15:00 over the course of a college career.
I coach in an environment where the lifestyle is quite non-conducive to training. We get a decent amount of walk-ons who showed little or no talent/potential in high school, or never ran at all, and I've never had one unable to break 17:00 for 5k (or an equivalent performance) if they stuck with it for several years. For women, that figure is probably around 20:30.
As I'm interpreting this hypothetical, its a way different than just throwing a bunch of sedentary people on a couch to 5k program for 3 months and seeing the results (which would be in the 21:00+ range on average, i bet). The human body can make some drastic changes given the right stimulus and a long enough time to adjust.
You coach. You coach walk-ons! That means that you're only speaking about your experience with people who are pre-selected to be at their physical peak AND super interested and motivated in distance running. Those are not "average" people. Open your eyes by visiting any recreational adult running club. Lots of guys work very hard and never sniff 16:30.
If you start them around 16-18 years old, they have 4-6 years to train, the program is good, and they lead a lifestyle is conducive to training (nothing crazy, just sleep ~8 hours a night, eat a healthy balanced diet, non-smoker, etc), I'd bet at least 50% of the male population could run close to 16:30 for 5k. 15:00 is a whole different level of performance. You don't have to be super-talented, but a lot more people put in most of the above and aren't in striking range of a 15:00 over the course of a college career.
I coach in an environment where the lifestyle is quite non-conducive to training. We get a decent amount of walk-ons who showed little or no talent/potential in high school, or never ran at all, and I've never had one unable to break 17:00 for 5k (or an equivalent performance) if they stuck with it for several years. For women, that figure is probably around 20:30.
As I'm interpreting this hypothetical, its a way different than just throwing a bunch of sedentary people on a couch to 5k program for 3 months and seeing the results (which would be in the 21:00+ range on average, i bet). The human body can make some drastic changes given the right stimulus and a long enough time to adjust.
You coach. You coach walk-ons! That means that you're only speaking about your experience with people who are pre-selected to be at their physical peak AND super interested and motivated in distance running. Those are not "average" people. Open your eyes by visiting any recreational adult running club. Lots of guys work very hard and never sniff 16:30.
You may have a talent base to pull from. An "average" guy would struggle to break 19. I only broke 19 a few times in HS and I put in 500 miles in the summer of 2000 and 2001 (both times, early June to early August) and barely got there. 17s in Ohio will get you as a male to the regionals without a problem, depending on division. Anyone 16:59 or better is usually making it to State in November. O-H...!
Do you think that with the right training and diet etc, be it long as needed, any average shmo that doesn't have any special physical problems, can get to 15 minutes for 5K?
Back when this was first posted 5 years ago, no. Now with the new supershoes? Maybe.
Nope. Impossible. Avg person cannot run 4:25 mile no matter what.
The question was not about the average person, the average SHMO! Shmos are really, really talented runners.
This may be the dumbest running related thread ever posted on letsrun. Anyone who believes the average male can run a 15 minute 5k… hell even a 15:5x 5k should be banned from discussing running ever again.
Agreed -- wonder if the framing was more can a dedicated male runner run 15:xx for 5k without talent. 15:01 & 15:59 are different. I feel like someone that runs with consistency for a decade from 20-30 should be able to come close to 15:59. 16:00 feels like a cut line to me. Some runners can get there very quickly. Others might come pretty close if they stick with it for a while. I think some people will just never break 15:00 no matter how much they love the sport and train.
If every male trained like a pro (and let's exclude PEDs) and dedicated his life to running, I think the median would be mid 15s. Many hobbyjoggers will work out once per day and think that's all they need.
If you start training someone (like Jakob did) at 8 and gradually progress, 15:30 is a reasonable midpoint.
Do you think that with the right training and diet etc, be it long as needed, any average shmo that doesn't have any special physical problems, can get to 15 minutes for 5K?
Define your terms.
"Average schmo" meaning mid-pack runner at a D3 cross country meet? Then probably yes. Better training, commitment, focus, diet, and such, he could do it.
"Average schmo" meaning cross-section of America? Then 100% no. If I let you coach 500 people from my neighborhood, none would run sub-15 because they are normal people.
...at least half of them would break. The rest couldn't "train like a pro" because they'd have to quit their jobs, but the ability to train like a pro is predicated on hobby joggers spending money on races and gear.
I don't think an average-talent male, even if very dedicated over time, would break 17.
Could Canova take a 22-23 min. 5k runner and make him sub-17 over 12-15 weeks?
I wonder how he'd train novice runners if he had to.
I tell one more time.....you can't train a donky to run as fast as a race horse. Not even Canova can make a 22-23 min 5 k runner without necessary talent to run 17 min in 12-15 weeks coaching. 1
Could Canova take a 22-23 min. 5k runner and make him sub-17 over 12-15 weeks?
I wonder how he'd train novice runners if he had to.
I tell one more time.....you can't train a donky to run as fast as a race horse. Not even Canova can make a 22-23 min 5 k runner without necessary talent to run 17 min in 12-15 weeks coaching. 1