Big Sky XC 2016

BIGS GUY wrote:

So looks like Idaho is as good as predicted. Unless Coach Shane can come on here and say his squads had an off day it looks like UofI is going to be looking at 2 likely top 4 finishes.

Nope, we had a decent day. Idaho ahead of EWU was not unexpected.....still lots of room for growth and coming off a tough griak weekend, I was very happy with our split this week from 2-5. Also, assuming Sarah ran approximately as well as she did last week (she did) our entire women's team (and men's team for that matter) had a MUCH better showing.

Plug in the splits this week back from Jarrell Mock and Sarah Reiter and you see what I mean.... Shows how hard it was to get out in that race and how much easier it was this week to run smooth.

-CS

I agree.

I give NAU and even Idaho an outside shot at Weber on the women's side.

Men's side I can comfortably say NAU has it in the bag, although SUU looks great.

On the guys side it's a matter of scale.

NAU is a top 5 team

SUU is real good but still "only" a top 25 team

Weber is solid but we're talking top 50 at best.

From there it really tightens up

Very logarithmic

Women's prediction

1. Weber: 4-1 vs NAU at BSC last 5 years, always ready for conference

2. NAU: Potential for several low sticks, but injuries often an issue

3. Idaho: Coming on strong with solid pack; looks good for future

4T. UM: Solid pack making huge progress: tied MSU this week

4T. MSU: Solid pack with mostly new faces: tied UM this week

6. SUU: Long way to go for a team with #2 runner 49th at 2015 BSC at home

7. EWU

Men's prediction

1. NAU: Barring a major disaster, don't see them losing. Hope they can have a great run at nationals and win a title.

2. SUU: Very good team, hope to see them at XC nationals.

3. Weber: They could be beat by another team if they have a bad day, but they have a decent run in Moscow and they will be third.

4. Montana State: They looked good at Montana, the addition to the line up has given them enough to get to 4th or 3rd if WSU falters.

5. Idaho State: Don't think Griak was a representation of what this team can do.

6. Idaho: Strong group, freshman looks good. Just feel MSU and ISU are a notch better overall.

7. EWU: Looked outmatched against Idaho, expect the same against MSU and ISU.

8-12: Your guess is as good as mine with a slight nod to Montana.

Women's prediction:

1. Weber: I think they are a little vulnerable, but overall are still just the strongest team.

2. NAU: Only really seen them race once at Griak as a group. If Gilchrist races they could give Weber a run, if not, they could drop lower.

3. SUU: They have been racing very solid. I think this is a different group than a year ago and will surprise people.

4. Idaho: Solid group, mostly younger athletes. They might need another year.

5. EWU: Think the low stick of Reiter will give them the slight edge over MSU and Montana. Others in group coming along as well.

6. Montana State: Think their depth is better than Montana's. Think Montana's fifth will cost them moving up a couple spots.

7. Montana: Have a solid top three, from there just not enough. Program looks to be going in the right direction.

8-12: Unsure, slight nod to Portland State.

Solid predictions....

My thoughts:

Not totally sure about Southern Utah women. They are better, but can they hold on?

Pretty sure Montana State and Montana will have their packs in about the same place as EWUs 2nd runner. If so, those contests wouldn't be that close.

Also, Gilchrist is a week or two out of a boot, so not sure what she can do this year.

Individual Rankings this week:

Women

1. Sarah Reiter - Eastern Washington

2. Hailey Whetton - Weber

3. Ellie Child - Weber

4. Melanie Townsend - NAU

5. Sierra Spiker - Idaho

6. Kara Story - Idaho

7. Paige Dilmore - Weber

8. Angie Nickerson - SUU

9. Alyssa Snyder - Montana State

10. Mikayla Malaspina - NAU

Men?

New women's regional polls align pretty well with what I see (Weber 1, NAU 2, dogfight between MSU, UM and Idaho for 3 with an edge to Idaho as of now).

Mountain

Weber 6

NAU 10

MSU 11

UM 12

SUU 13

West

Idaho 12

For the men, I also agree with the first 3 from the polls, not sure ISU will be 4th though.

NAU

SUU

Weber

Idaho State

Yeah eastern sucks! Definitely going to get last in the conference. They should go back to NAIA. Too many juco washouts.

Flash jr. wrote:

Yeah eastern sucks! Definitely going to get last in the conference. They should go back to NAIA. Too many juco washouts.

0/10

NAU runs a tune up race for Wisconsin next week. Women ran their full team and scores a 16 to win against community college competition. Sweep the first 4 places. They seem to have a solid top 4 but no 5th runner. We still have not seen Paige Gilchrist or Karina Ernst who if healthy would be their 2nd and 3rd runners.

NAU ran their C team on the men´s side scoring a 2nd place. None of these runners will run with their main team at any point this season.

http://live.wingfootfinish.com/161008MesaXCClassic/

SUU hosted Idaho State and Utah Valley (plus Dixie St) and surprised people by running full squads on both sides. They swept both races comfortably. Guys scored 17 and showed depth.

https://m.tfrrs.org/xc_results/10594

Not a bad showing by Idaho State in the men's race. UVU is pretty good this year. Does this change anything in the men's race?

Police man wrote:

Not a bad showing by Idaho State in the men's race. UVU is pretty good this year. Does this change anything in the men's race?

ISU's first guy was behind SUU's 7th..... I wouldn't say this changes anything.

Sue you wrote:

SUU hosted Idaho State and Utah Valley (plus Dixie St) and surprised people by running full squads on both sides. They swept both races comfortably. Guys scored 17 and showed depth.

https://m.tfrrs.org/xc_results/10594

Good race, especially on the men's side. I don't think this changes much for men or women. The SUU guys are in the mix again this year.

Yep, looking like NAU is going to score 15 points at the conference meet on the men's side.

Southern Utah ran great. NAU is so good they will score 15 points against a top 20 team.

Weber looked OK in the B race, nothing amazing.

Women's side.....NAU and Weber didn't look that great, but at the same time not awful. Still give the edge to Weber despite NAU only being two points back. Seems like NAU's 5th runner would be much further back at the conference meet.

Anyone who said before the season that Weber men had a shot at coming close to SUU was proved wrong today. 6 T-Birds in front of Weber's #1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GoCvuu0dlQ

Wisconsin provided some interesting insights on the women's side today:

23 - Weber State - 588

24 - NAU - 590

Looks like things could be VERY close for the women's title. So much for Weber being the runaway winners this year.

Right now I'd say the women's order is:

1. Weber

2. NAU

3. Idaho

4. SUU

5. MSU

6. Eastern Washington

7. Montana

On the men's side it definitely looks like NAU is good and so is SUU. Weber's men have no shot at beating SUU.

That NAU perfect score could absolutely happen. THEIR 6TH GUY was 1 sec ahead of SUU's TOP guy today. Outright scary.

Individual Race looks like this, based only on NAU, SUU, and Weber at Wisconsin today:

1. Futsum - NAU

2. Baxter - NAU

3. Day - NAU

4. Glines - NAU

5. Beamish - NAU

6. Trouard - NAU

7. Wright - SUU

8. Knevelbaard - SUU

9. Lomong - NAU

10. Collins - SUU

(Can ANYBODY ELSE in the Big Sky break into this top 10????)

11. Weitz - NAU (24:43)

12. Espino - SUU (24:51)

13. Reed - SUU (25:08)

14. Kennell - SUU (25:23)

15. Leatham - Weber (25:24)

16. Sinn - Weber (25:32)

17. Olsen - SUU (25:32)

18. Cross - Weber (25:37)

19. Kearns - Weber (25:41)

20. Green - Weber (26:30)

-----------------------------------------------------------

15 - NAU (24:11)

50 - SUU (24:47)

88 - Weber (25:45)

Who else would you stick into this top 10, individually?? I have a hard time thinking of one.