Nick Arciniaga Says 20+ Guys Have the Potential to Run Sub 2:10 at the Trials: How Many Do You think?

Altitudeguy wrote:

I read that Braun held himself back when he ran 2:12 in Houston. He said he started running 4:50s and slowed down because LA went so horribly he just wanted to have a good experience. I also read he only did a 12 mile tempo before that race and his coach said he had at least 60-90 seconds left in the tank at the end of it. Pretty impressive. I think he will turn a lot of heads. I follow his races and he is consistently one of the best road racers on the circuit and has beat most of these guys at different distances in the past 6 months. He has PRs of 101:30, 27:41 and 13:20 which a lot of those other guys dont have. So he has the speed to turn it over when pace changes whereas many of those guys have not broken 28 minutes. I also think Pennel will run a big breakthrough as he has been having a great year on the roads. Obviously the big names will be there but I think that there is going to be an under dog like Braun, Pennel or Ward to pull through those last 6 miles and finish really well. Maybe not make the team but be top 5 or at least be there at the end contending with the veterans. Sometimes not being the veteran is a good thing. When you have run 17 marathons and you keep hoping for that breakthrough imagine how tired you are mentally! I think its gonna be one of these new guys to really shake things up.

S. Canaday wrote:

This. Knowing Nick he was probably just being nice.

Sure, any guy that has run a sub 62:30 half *might* have the potential to run a sub 2:10 in the future. Taking the extensive half marathon list into account and others that have run 27-28min for 10km you could (very roughly) extrapolate.

Of course realistically, (esp if the LA course will be hilly), anyone who cracks 2:10 is probably either going to be on the team or very close to making the team.

In the Houston 2012 trials, just over 20 guys broke 2:15. That was a very deep race.

baking soda wrote:

What he said should be understood as nick believes roughly 20 guys have that potential. He threw out that number as a way to compare his ability to others that will show up. He is not saying that many or even one will run 2:10 at the trials. He can't predict weather and the way the race unfolds. What he can do is make a list of people with potential to run 2:10.(this is assuming that there training is going great) You use this as motivation in your training knowing your not heads and shoulders above the field. It is not unreasonable to assume lots of guys have this potential this year.