Can Rupp Threaten the WR at 5000?

You're all forgetting that Rupp's best 5000's and 10000's were at Hayward field with hundreds of fans cheering his every move and every pacer under contract to work for him. That's done for the year. It's not happening in Europe. Forget it.

He needs to get in that Paris DL with old 'meskel.

3.30-26.30-->7.20.83

3.29-26.40-->7.20.66

WR 3000m is close for Rupp and Farah. That could be a goal for the coming years.

Here are the calculations wrote:

3.30-26.30-->7.20.83

3.29-26.40-->7.20.66

WR 3000m is close for Rupp and Farah. That could be a goal for the coming years.

No it isn't.

ventolin^3 wrote:

[quote]Here are the calculations wrote:I'm using ventolins calculator. WORLD RECORD is 12.37.35

3.50.92-26.44.36---->12.50.49

You are being ungenerous to Rupp :

I think it's fair to say that whatever his potential, breaking 3:50 would require a combination of good conditions/pacing/performance that Rupp has never had in his long career. Can he do it? Of course he has the potential. But the equivalent of the best mile and best 10,000 of his career is just over 12:50, assuming the reasonably favorable conditions and pacing of those PR-setting performances.

Sorry, that should have read:

I think it's fair to say that whatever his potential, breaking 12:50 would require a combination of good conditions/pacing/performance that Rupp has never had in his long career. Can he do it? Of course he has the potential. But the equivalent of the best mile and best 10,000 of his career is just over 12:50, assuming the reasonably favorable conditions and pacing of those PR-setting performances.

lol

Rupp just ran 26:44

Looking at the top 3 guys for 5k all time... Kenny B and Haile G ran 26:17 and 26:22 for 10k, and Komen ran sub-8 for 2 miles

some perspective

I think it's not correct looking at the PB of the best athletes, in every distance, for understanding their real value.

For example, Mo Farah could run in Monaco a type of race very well paced (the best after the retirement of El Guerrouj) and improved his PB of more than 5.0 (3:28.81 vs 3:33.98), but his real value was already very close 3:30.0 in 2012, when he won in Eagle Rock (3:34.66) ahead Galen Rupp (3:34.75). So, he was lucky to find this opportunity. But, if he was not in Monaco, who today could suppose he has the ability running 3:28.8 ?

Both Gebrselassie abd Bekele never had this opportunity, so looking at their official PB is a mistake, if we want to suppose their real value.

Kenenisa ran 3 times in his life 1500m : 2 times in Shanghai, in September, at the end of very tough seasons when he won everything in 5000 and 10000m, when already with little training, for giving image to the meeting that is organized by his management, and a third time won in Stockholm in 2006 as preparation for 5000m. In all this cases, his times were almost the same (3:33.08, 3:33.13 in 2006 and 3:32.35 in 2007), this few days after running 10000m in Bruxelles.

Haile ran 3:31.76 indoor in Stuttgart (1st Feb 1998), but the day before, in Dortmund, was 6th in a competition of 800m in Dortmund with 1:50.39. Can somebody suppose this time in 800m could be his best at the moment ?

You need to understand that, at the moment, nobody can threaten the WR of 5000 and 10000m. Nor Rupp, neither Farah, nor some new Kenyan, neither some new Ethiopian.

We speak about two athletes completely out of the normal parameters.

Haile ran 18 times under 13' in the period 1995 - 2004, and 9 times under 27' in the period 1995 - 2007. After his first Marathon (London 2002) came back on the track, and during the winter 2003 ran 2 miles in 8:04.69 on indoor track.

Kenenisa ran 6 times under 12:50 and 21 times under 13:00.

In 10000m, 4 times under 26:30 and 8 times under 26:50, the most part of these remaining alone after the first half.

He has averages, for the best 10 personal performances, of 7:29.9 (3000), 12:47.8 (5000) and 26:39 (10000m).

His performances cover a period between 2003 and 2012, and, in my opinion, there is still the possibility of running inside his 10 best times (wait his 10000m in July...).

These two athletes were able to win, and to go for record without real rabbits.

For beating a record, we need to find athletes able to exhalt themselves as front runners, and this is not the case of Mo Farah, may be more similar the mentality of Galen Rupp. But his value is honestly too far for looking at a WR.

And, when we speak about a WR, we need to be lucky. I had the case of Shaheen, who in 2006 was in very much better shape than in 2004, but his WR remains Bruxelles 2004, not Zurich 2006, because of the level of the rabbits and the bad weather.

It's funny to create hypothesis, but the reality normally is very much different.

I love how Rupp runs a PB and AR and suddenly we're all supposed to "know" that he's worth a race almost 10 seconds faster than what he actually ran.

I'm as big a fan of Rupp as the next guy, but let's be serious. He ran a 26:44 for the 10000. He is nowhere near 12:37 right now.

Rupp might be able to down to 12:55. Getting under 12:50 is dreaming.

Not even under wrote:

Rupp might be able to down to 12:55.

Agreed.

Maybe once Rupp runs 26:30, he'll be able to sniff Lagat's american record.

browski wrote:

I'm as big a fan of Rupp as the next guy, but let's be serious. He ran a 26:44 for the 10000. He is nowhere near 12:37 right now.

True. Here's a quick thought on how to generate a rough estimate of Rupp's potential at 5000m right now: 3k PR + 2k @ 10k PR pace. That gives 7:30.2 + 2 x 2:40.5 = 12:51.2, which seems about right to me.

If we run the same calculation for Kenny B, we get 7:25.8 + 2 x 2:37.7 = 12:41.2 vs actual PR of 12:37.35. For Haile G we get 7:25.1 + 2 x 2:38.3 = 12:41.7 vs actual PR of 12:39.36. So for two all-time greats with strong PRs at all three distances, this way of estimating 5k potential lines up pretty well with actual 5k performance.

Big caveat with Rupp: his 3k PR was run indoors and he seems to belong to the class of athlete who often runs better indoors in a controlled climate than he does outdoors if the weather isn't ideal. [I'm thinking Monaco last summer, for example.] So if he's going to get close to 12:50, he's going to need a fast race in good weather.

No way to run a similar calculation for Mo because none of Mo's PRs are clearly maxed out efforts. And Ritz is just an enigma to me - I don't see how he could have ever run 3000m in anything under 7:35, yet he managed to run 12:56 for 5000m, which would seem to imply 10000m potential around 26:40, yet his 10000m PR is over 27:20. And unlike Mo, Ritz seems to care about times. Ritz is a really good runner, but I don't think he's done a good job of managing his career - hope he can extend it long enough to hit a few more big PRs but the hour is growing late...

Anyone who can run 1:57 the last 2 laps obviously has plenty extra in the tank. A perfectly paced record attempt would leave no extra energy for a kick. I don't see how it's going out on a limb to say he could probably average 63.97/lap instead of 64.55/lap, probably leaving no extra energy to run any faster than 63 the last lap. That would be a 26:30 or just under if he did run, say 63 flat on the last lap.

Redlining like that of course is no easy task, and any lesser talent than Bekele and Haile G would likely need more than one person to help out. That's why those times almost never happen.

Given Rupp's other PRs, it kind of blows my mind how many people doubt he can break 12:50. He's clearly had the ability to do it for several years now. If he stays healthy, I think we'd see a 12:45-48. Mythical perfect pacing scenario, 12:40, but no one seems interested in making that happen.

Record holders *ALMOST ALWAYS* have something left in the tank for the last lap or two. Blame the central governor or something like that, but they simply can't push to their max 6-8 laps out and time it perfectly to hit an even pace on the last lap. And if they DO gamble in this direction, then they ALMOST ALWAYS collapse on some of the final key laps, and the record is gone. So yes, Rupp had a little more in the tank, but not as much as you think. His pure natural speed, and he's worked on it so much, allows him to muster a kick to sub 60 at least (we are not talking about a 51 lap here) even when he IS just about 100% physically spent, but mentally on cloud 9 because he is about to set a record/PR,.

So you are imagining way more "left in the tank" than is actually there.

And you're: 'he *only* needs to run a little more than 1/2 a second a lap faster to run near 26:30' is silly. It sounds like nothing putting it this way, but it certainly adds up. Let's not be disingenuous here.

Exactly. A nearly impossible task actually. Pacers or not.

It blows my mind that you think sub 12:50 is a done deal, when someone like Kennedy was as fast over 3k as Rupp, and while we don't know his real 10k potential, was a natural aerobic monster (won 10k x-c NCAA's as 18 y.o true frosh off of 60 mpw) who put in loads of miles, and was in some great 5k's to PR, and "only" mustered 12:58.

And yes, Ritz ran 12:56 and solinsky ran 12:55, but looking at ritz's 2-mile/marathon range, and Sol's mile/10k range (we don't need calculators for this), no, I don't see Rupp easily 5-6 secs faster than them, or significantly faster than Lagat, or almost as fast as El G. No, don't see it. He may run 12:50. I don't see him running under or if he does, by much.

You could easily get a pacer to 3k in 7:35ish and maybe even hang on past 2M, then you'd need a very hard 1.8k solo or with a couple of competitors. Rupp could probably handle 7:37 and then 5:08 or slightly better, for 12:42-47. The 12:42 is a stretch. Mo, on the other hand, can threaten the world record. He's faster than Komen at 1500m and 10k, while he's considerably faster at 1500m than Geb and Bekele and he has handled mid to upper 12:40s guys (from the Paris meet), who might have been able to go a few seconds faster, very consistently in championships for years.

Realism wrote:

Rupp just ran 26:44

Looking at the top 3 guys for 5k all time... Kenny B and Haile G ran 26:17 and 26:22 for 10k, and Komen ran sub-8 for 2 miles

some perspective

True, but what did Komen do for 10K. What did Kenny do for 1500? Rupp seems more complete across that range, which could suggest that a brilliant 5000 is in the waiting. Probably not a WR, but it's possible that this could be the best distance for Rupp currently.

Just like in the 10,000 all it takes is getting into a good race when fit.

Perspectivation wrote:

Just like in the 10,000 all it takes is getting into a good race when fit.

Your drunk on Rupp's bath water. How many top 5k runners does Rupp/Nike have to buy off to do all of the work, and then let Rupp sneak around them the last lap? Such an event has to be on Rupp's home field. Basically, you guys are drunk on Rupp's bath water; Rupp near the WR will never happen.

Very good points Mr. Canova. Especially the point that had Farah not run in the right race at the right time last summer, MOST would say he could never run under 3:30, some would say not under 3:31 or 3:32. This scenario applies to pretty much all of the top runners.

A lot of people don't understand that at that top, top level, a lot has to go right to have a chance to hit your best. At the sub elite level there are plenty of chances to run your max, especially if you are not the top runner in a race. Arcadia invite for high school, stanford invite, cardinal invite, mt. sac etc. for college or B level elites. But for the top guys these meets are not even on the schedule or are rust busters.

Most years are focussed on intl. championships and the years that aren't you have to be healthy, fit and in a race that stays on pace. I agree that a WR for Rupp or Farah is a big stretch, but I'd be curious to know what you think Rupp could run in a very good race. I think 12:44-12:46 is doable. Rupp has shown some ability to take a pace and press on. His indoor 13:01 was a good example.