when he's good n' ready.
when he's good n' ready.
hha wrote: when he's good n' ready.
it will be the end of never before sit-and-kick works in a marathon. rupp's secret strategy will not work in the marathon.
Sit & Kick wrote:
it will be the end of never before sit-and-kick works in a marathon. rupp's secret strategy will not work in the marathon.
...said some moron on letsrun. Now to Lisa with the weather, Lisa...
You haven't watch a Rupp 5k/10k have you?
Obvious Answer wrote:
About a year or two ago.
This whole notion that one should turn to the marathon when you are old and washed up is mind-bogglingly stupid.
The reason you are seeing a lot of fast marathons is that more younger runners are running them while they still have their speed.
* wrote:
First marathon in the spring of 2014.
Skip the upcoming indoor season and run mileage.
Find a Rupp certified marathon course in the spring.
Maybe London.
Run the 10,000 at USATF.
Race on the track in Europe over the summer. Go after the US 5000m record.
Then he can gauge what to do after the 2014 season.
I like this approach too. I think it was Ritz's monster marathon base in 2009 that paved the way for his breakthrough on the track. Could very well work for Rupp, and he won't burn himself up with indoor.
Sam yes , Ryan no , Galen no..
There will be a breakthrough marathoner , we are do for a sub 2:06 to come out of the new talent to maybe marathon early.
J.R. wrote:
He should have started a long time ago. It is too late for G Rupp to run the marathon, especially with the way he's been training.
Correct. He won't be noticed or contend for any decent sized marathon wins. Maybe a grandmas or twin cities tier level at best.
NYC like his mentor.
As soon as he's ready for another rematch with Sam Chelanga.
So fall 2015, or perhaps the 2016 Olympic trials.
sub3over40 wrote:
Obvious Answer wrote:About a year or two ago.
This whole notion that one should turn to the marathon when you are old and washed up is mind-bogglingly stupid.
The reason you are seeing a lot of fast marathons is that more younger runners are running them while they still have their speed.
Oh, so like Dennis Kimetto (29), Wilson Kipsang (31), Patrick Makau (28), Eliud Kipchoge (28), Haile Gebrselassie (35 when he ran 2:03:59)?
Are there any special drugs he needs to be on for the marathon besides the thyroid, 37 TUEs and various PEDs that he currently takes?
Obviouser Answer wrote:
sub3over40 wrote:The reason you are seeing a lot of fast marathons is that more younger runners are running them while they still have their speed.
Oh, so like Dennis Kimetto (29), Wilson Kipsang (31), Patrick Makau (28), Eliud Kipchoge (28), Haile Gebrselassie (35 when he ran 2:03:59)?
One of the easiest ways to distinguish between an honest person and one who at their very core is a liar is that liars selectively choose examples to dishonestly make the point they want to be true while honest men take good, solid representative samples.
- - - - - - - - -
Please note that the thread title asks about when Rupp should run his marathon debut. Then note that the ages at the time of their marathon debut for all male winners of major marathons (London, NY, Boston, Chicago, Berlin) since 2008 are as follows:
19
20
21
23
23
24
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
27
28
28
29
Mean: 24.8
Median: 25
And yes, this includes your beloved Haile Gebrselassie.
Seems like most of the champs out there debut around 25.
Rupp is now 27. So, like I said, he should have gotten started about a year or two ago.
According to that data, Rupp should do it at 24 or 27. But the occurrences of each number aren't different enough from each other to really pinpoint a specific age besides "in your 20s".
uj wrote:
According to that data, Rupp should do it at 24 or 27. But the occurrences of each number aren't different enough from each other to really pinpoint a specific age besides "in your 20s".
Fair enough.
Minor note - if you are going to put the cutoff at 27, thereby dropping the three oldest debut ages, then it is only reasonable and unbiased to do the same thing at the younger end. Drop the three youngest debuts (19, 20, 21) and we are left with somewhere between 23 and 27 would seem to be the ideal age, given the data.
I didn't put a cutoff anywhere. I selected the ages with the most occurrences. Those were 24 and 27
uj wrote:
I didn't put a cutoff anywhere. I selected the ages with the most occurrences. Those were 24 and 27
Oh, I see. I misread your post. My bad.
At any rate, it would seem odd if somehow 24 and 27 were more desirable than 25 or 26. I would suggest that a reasonable model is that there is a range that is most often ideal and that the data suggests that the range for most elites is somewhere between 23 and 27.
Obviously, any given individual may be better served by debuting outside of this range (or never running a marathon at all).
Ben True
Wake up now wrote:
Sam yes , Ryan no , Galen no..
There will be a breakthrough marathoner , we are do for a sub 2:06 to come out of the new talent to maybe marathon early.
agip wrote:
Fall 2014 - to end an off-year season?
Fall 2015 - after the WC, but with enough time to recover for the upcoming OG?
Winter 2016 at the OT and then Rio for real?
I'm thinking his first marathon will be at the trials, and if he makes the team, Rio will be his first serious attempt.
It's looking now like a 2:11 at the trials would make a team, so that might not be much of a race for Rupp.
The answer is that he ALREADY SHOULD HAVE.
He has NOTHING more to do on the track.
After the 2012 OG fluke, he will NEVER medal again at a WC or OG. A year more training showed where he sites in the 5/10: just out of the medals in the 10 and mid-pack in a global 5k final.
I have been saying it for months (since WC) and will be proven right: Rupp's best (and only) chance for podium performances is in marathons with fixed fields like Boston. He could podium in a fixed-field Boston against second-tier Kenyans, much more likely than ever medaling in another WC/OG. (The best Kenyans would rather race fast Rotterdam or London than take their chances in capricious Boston, and Boston is known to limit international fields to give US athletes a shot.)
If Rupp or even places in Boston he will be the most well-known (and overrated) runner in US history.
Obvious Answer wrote:
uj wrote:I didn't put a cutoff anywhere. I selected the ages with the most occurrences. Those were 24 and 27
Oh, I see. I misread your post. My bad.
At any rate, it would seem odd if somehow 24 and 27 were more desirable than 25 or 26. I would suggest that a reasonable model is that there is a range that is most often ideal and that the data suggests that the range for most elites is somewhere between 23 and 27.
Obviously, any given individual may be better served by debuting outside of this range (or never running a marathon at all).
You can't just say that 24 and 27 "seem odd" and decide to ignore the data. The ages with the most occurrences are 24 and 27. Those are the facts. You can't make it a range. If you're going to do that then you have to include all of the numbers with similar occurrences which would then mean "anytime in your 20s". There is nothing reasonable about turning it into a range between 24 and 27 because it seems odd. That is a strong example non-reasonability.