It Just Became ALMOST Impossible For Galen Rupp To Medal In Moscow

Anyone enlighten the less informed among us what 10,000 race Gebrhiwet will be in tomorrow, and if we can watch it in the U.S.?

While you did provide me a response, you are not really responding to me. I didn't really ask you anything about "the sport", but about your curious and inappropriate choice of words "just became" to help defend your speculation of events that might come to be. You mentioned some kind of mass recent awareness by some unnamed persons, of Ethiopia's change in strategy of team selection -- but who wasn't aware of it before, that "just became" aware?Let's put it another way: why do you think that recently it was MORE probable for Rupp to medal in Moscow, than now? What happened that caused this quantum transition from the "ALMOST possible" to the "ALMOST impossible", that causes you to provocatively announce this radical change of state that "just became"?Gebrihwet happened this year, but didn't "just" happen. And you aren't even sure Gebremeskel will make it to Moscow, or will make it to the final, as you always precede him with a capital "IF".This isn't a very strong case for claiming something "just became ALMOST impossible".

themanontherun wrote:

I agree that the 10k is his better chance for a medal, but don't discount him in the 5k either.

Agreed about the 10,000 being his "better" chance. Already discounted him in the 5,000.

Rupp's result in London is pretty much where he should expect to finish in a competitive championship 5,000: in a blanket finish for 7th-9th.

Amazing kicker off of a jog or a short wind-up. No proven ability to kick off of a sustained fast pace. Maybe practicing this skill in Diamond League races instead of DNS/DNFing all the time would help.

SPMBLNPF wrote:

It is not entirely clear to me what Gebrhiwet is up to at this point. He is on the start lists for a 10,000m on June 27 in Sweden, then he is also scheduled to run a 5000m on June 30 in Birmingham and another 5000m on July 4 in Lausanne. He may do all of this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he pulls out of one of these races.

Just as I suspected yesterday, Gebrhiwet was unlikely to be contesting all of these events in such a sport span of time. Gebrhiwet is no longer on the start list for the 10,000m in Sweden tomorrow.

The start list still includes Gebremeskel, which remains bad news for Galen Rupp, but the immensely talented Gebremeskel needs to start rounding into form.

The 5 runners currently on the start list:

Dejen Gebremeskel

Yigrem Demelash

Atsedu Tsegay

Abera Kumera

Imane Merga

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

themanontherun wrote:

I agree that the 10k is his better chance for a medal, but don't discount him in the 5k either.

Agreed about the 10,000 being his "better" chance. Already discounted him in the 5,000.

Rupp's result in London is pretty much where he should expect to finish in a competitive championship 5,000: in a blanket finish for 7th-9th.

Amazing kicker off of a jog or a short wind-up. No proven ability to kick off of a sustained fast pace. Maybe practicing this skill in Diamond League races instead of DNS/DNFing all the time would help.

I've mentioned it before but this is how I feel. 12:58 and 26:48 is darn good, but there are at least 10+ guys capable of that.

Off a slow pace with a fast wind up Rupp can really let it rip...and in that specific race I think he can win or contend with nearly anyone. 5000 or 10000.

Problem is...that doesnt happen in all races, even in this era of kicker races. Plenty of races like the trials and last years 5000 in London featured fast last miles. Rupp has run fast in the mile but to best of my knowledge has never closed a fast mile or 5000 at a blistering pace. He may he able to do it...but has not shown it yet.

However he has only been any sort of contender on the international stage for a year and a half, so I hope that Rupp will eventually develop this and become a clear contender in any and all races.

Whoah! It looks like it just became ALMOST possible!

SPMBLNPF wrote:

Just as I suspected yesterday, Gebrhiwet was unlikely to be contesting all of these events in such a sport span of time. Gebrhiwet is no longer on the start list for the 10,000m in Sweden tomorrow.

The start list still includes Gebremeskel, which remains bad news for Galen Rupp, but the immensely talented Gebremeskel needs to start rounding into form.

The 5 runners currently on the start list:

Dejen Gebremeskel

Yigrem Demelash

Atsedu Tsegay

Abera Kumera

Imane Merga

stupid things people say wrote:

Whoah! It looks like it just became ALMOST possible!

The amazing thing about some of you who struggle with rudimentary thinking is that although you sort of had a clever point, you actually expressed it in a way which manifested your complete and utter lack of understanding.

IF something just became "almost possible," it remains impossible, and therefore, it is NOT going to occur, unlike something which just became "almost impossible," meaning it remains possible, however unlikely.

More directly on topic and addressing your sort of point: IF Gebrhiwet does not intend to qualify for Moscow in the 10,000m, of course this is to Galen's advantage, but remember, when the hammer comes down, and it will, it will have to be KB who brings it down, because he probably cannot outkick the likes of Gebremeskel (assuming he is fit enough to qualify later today in Sweden) and Farah, and it will remain unlikely that Galen can dance with Gebremeskel, Farah and perhaps even KB when he throws everything at him but the kitchen sink. And he will...

LOL. Go read your original post.

OK. If it "just became ALMOST impossible", what was it before, and what recent events caused this change of state?And how is your speculation of future possibilities on-topic? Assuming the subject line defines the topic, how does future speculation about an as yet unformed team explain a purported transition from the past to the present?

Future Alcoholic wrote:

Also, this isn't the first time I've noticed that anytime someone starts a negative thread about Rupp, you almost unanimously defend him. Then, when there's a positive thread, you come like a pack of wolves to attack him. It's the same with Alan Webb.

Did it occur to you that there may be more than two or three other people on this website?

Rupp ran both the 5 and 10 in Des Moines. He doesn't seem near a peak. Let's see what happens between now and Moscow. Peaking for Des Moines would have been crazy. I think the 5 was deliberately a workout.

As I was saying, Dejen Gebremeskel just served notice to the rest of the world that this time the 10,000m is not going to be tailor made for the little kicks of Mo and Galen. Gebremeskel is in 26:40 shape and he can kick better than Galen, and this week it became ALMOST impossible for Galen to medal. Gebremeskel is superior to Galen, and the best runners in the world were concentrated in the 5000m in London, not the 10,000m.

Dejen Gebremeskel 26:51.02 WL

Abera Kumera 26:52.85 PB

Imane Merga 26:57.33 SB

Yigrem Demelash 27:15.51

Atsedu Tsegay 27:28.11

Gebremeskel hasn't even shown good form this year. He has amazing potential at 10,000m also. Kumera and Merga running well, also.

Sollentuna GP

1. 26.51.02 Dejen Gebremeskel

2. 26:52.85 Abera Kuma

It is interesting that the front page of Letsrun and Ventolin both declare that Kenenisa Bekele is finished as a threat on the track after he runs almost 1 second faster at Ostrava than Galen Rupp ran at the Pre Classic. I am not disputing that Kenenisa Bekele is finished in one sense, but to say he is not a threat is a bit misleading. I also understand that Galen Rupp is younger and although I have declared that he has stopped improving, others may differ (and be wrong). However, we have one runner who runs 13:07 and he is declared finished as "a threat on the track," while we have another, who only has a pb of 12:58, who recently ran 13:08, and nobody appears to be declaring him "finished as a threat on the track."

I would not expect Kenenisa Bekele to necessarily medal in Moscow, but his chances appear to be as good or better than Galen Rupp's.

I will only add that my claim that Kenenisa Bekele has as good or better chance of getting a medal in Moscow as Galen Rupp is subject to the caveat that Galen is on the U.S. team and Kenenisa Bekele may or may not be on the Ethiopian team, as some reports have indicated he was selected after the Pre Classic, but this may not be true.

Alright where did you hear about Gebrhiwet running a 10k...what meet? Where?

Also, I don't get how Lagat is being doubted. Lagat beat, and by beat I mean destroyed Alamirew in the 3000m in Karlsruhe this indoor season by a good amount. Also, Gebhiwet has never beaten Lagat before and has lost to Alamirew twice in a row.

PLUS, Gebrhiwet doesn't have the 1500m speed that Lagat, Rupp, Farah and Alamirew have (Alamirew is a 3:50 miler). I don't see why you're so confident that he's gonna beat everyone. And what 10000m experience does he even have against the other guys? None. If he's really 19, he'd be burning himself out by running a 10k final and 2 5k races in a week (that is if he actually is running the 10k - which isn't even a guarantee).

And when has Gebrhiwet even beaten Farah? Never.

isaac wrote:

Alright where did you hear about Gebrhiwet running a 10k...what meet? Where?

Also, I don't get how Lagat is being doubted. Lagat beat, and by beat I mean destroyed Alamirew in the 3000m in Karlsruhe this indoor season by a good amount. Also, Gebhiwet has never beaten Lagat before and has lost to Alamirew twice in a row.

PLUS, Gebrhiwet doesn't have the 1500m speed that Lagat, Rupp, Farah and Alamirew have (Alamirew is a 3:50 miler). I don't see why you're so confident that he's gonna beat everyone. And what 10000m experience does he even have against the other guys? None. If he's really 19, he'd be burning himself out by running a 10k final and 2 5k races in a week (that is if he actually is running the 10k - which isn't even a guarantee).

And when has Gebrhiwet even beaten Farah? Never.

He is talking more about Gebremeskel now, especially given that Gebriwhet won't be selected for 10,000m, unless something strange has happened, as he hasn't run one.

Gebremeskel is certainly a HUGE threat. He can close as fast as Farah, and has run 12:45. His credentials and results speak for themselves, especially as he seems to be rounding into good form now.

isaac wrote:

Alright where did you hear about Gebrhiwet running a 10k...what meet? Where?

Gebrhiwet was on the start lists for the 10,000m in Sollentuna at the time I started this thread. This was the race in which Gebremeskel led from 3000m and ran 26:51 in what was his debut at the distance, and if that doesn't sound like a man to be reckoned with, then you haven't figured it out yet, as he can kick with Farah and has at least as much stamina, with a 12:46 from last year.

As for Gebrhiwet, IF he had been in Sollentuna, the odds are that he and Gebremeskel would have both run about 26:40, sharing the lead and making it happen. You are correct that Gebrhiwet doesn't appear to have the blistering kick that Gebremeskel and Alamirew have, and certainly not the kick of Muktar Edris, who might be the biggest threat to Farah at 5000m if he makes the Ethiopian team. Gebrhiwet is one runner who can run away from Galen Rupp, as can Gebremeskel, and so if Gebrhiwet were in the 10,000m, this leaves Rupp likely finishing behind Farah and the two Gebs, although this is now a moot point in relation to Gebrhiwet.

As far as Lagat is concerned, he will NEVER break 13 minutes again, but that doesn't mean he cannot be a factor. He is not going to medal again. You have no idea what he's facing at 5000m, and for him at 38 to even be in the mix is astounding. Bernard Lagat is unlikely to ever break 3:34 again, so he has lost his edge in a kick against the best in the world.