Olympic Decathlon Update

Wo wrote:

Why did Ashton stop jumping?

Man. I can't believe it. Why not try one time at 8.30? Is it possible, he'd be afraid he'd get hurt?

If you want to be a legend and a household name, you get the WR in the Olympics.

One more height and that's 32 points so instead he's 55 down.

If he has the same javelin, then he's got to run a 4:06.73 in the 1,500 versus the 4:14 in Eugene and that's not happening.

But if he was only 23 down, he'd only have to do 4:11.22.

Oh well, he's still a beast.

The gold medal is what 98 percent of US viewers care about. Did it hurt Bolt to win without breaking his 100M world record?

Trey can hold silver with a solid jav. With 2 events to go look out for one of these two to rally for bronze:

6th pl 6889 (-38 from third) Hans Van Alphen 67.59m 4:17.51

8th pl 6783 (-144 from third) Leonel Suarez 77.47m 4:16.70

And besides, most Americans have heard about Eaton when he broke the WR at the Trials. And people in Europe are so much more knowledgeable about the athletes than the Americans will ever be, so I think Eaton's fanbase is secure regardless.

Standings after the pole vault:

1 Ashton Eaton USA 7381

2 Trey Hardee USA 7159

3 Rico Freimuth GER 6927

4 Damian Warner CAN 6916

5 Oleksiy Kasyanov UKR 6901

6 Hans van Alphen BEL 6889

7 Dmitriy Karpov KAZ 6871

8 Leonel Suárez CUB 6783

I too would've liked to see how high Eaton could PV today, but I have to agree with his strategic decision here, conserve energy for a strong JAV and 1500m, so that he can break the OR.

He already owns the WR, but has no Olympic medal of any color, so any risking of his imminent GOLD (and OR) for chasing a few points off his own WR seems unnecessarily foolish.

Assuming Trey has a healthy elbow, he should throw 64-68 in the JAV (and might have a 70 PB within reach) but will lose any points he gains on Eaton in the 1500. He's down 222 now after 8; I think he'll finish about 240-250 off Ashton. No one should catch him for Silver; he's up 232 on the next bunch of 5 (and up 376 on Suarez) and only Van Alphen and Suarez can match Trey's JAV.

The race for Bronze is open for 6 people, although of these 6, Kasyanov & Karpov will drop out of contention thanks to their poor JAV. (Karpov has always baffled me with his frame/shoulders; he should be a much better thrower than he is.)

That means the race for Bronze is really among 4: SUAREZ (who should make up a lot of ground in the Jav, could hit 75ish, and can hit a 4:20); VAN ALPHEN (should out-throw Warner & Freimuth by a little bit, around 64-65, and then run a ~4:20); REIMUTH, aka Vanilla Ice (only a 62-63 Jav, then a 4:35); and the wild card is the young Canadian WARNER who is not a great thrower yet (expect 60-62) and maybe a bit under 4:30.... but he's young, and I think still improving, he might have more throw and run in him than that. I like his chances better than Freimuth, and is definitely someone to keep an eye on in coming years.

It's a dammned shame the gremlin hurdle knocked Bryan Clay out of the trials. This definitely would've been a USA sweep of all 3 medals.

It's a tough call. He looked great at 5.20 and certainly had a 5.30 or 5.40 in him. However, by not taking another vault, he gets a Gold medal, period. I think he would have made the same decision regardless of where his points were relative to WR pace, and that's a smart decision. By the time you reach the pole vault in the dec, you're damn tired, things are starting to hurt, etc., and it's already an easy event to get injured in. Even if he torn his shoulder in half throwing the jav, he could still run 1500, but if you land badly and twist an ankle, or worse, in the vault, you're done.

On the other hand, jav is one of those event where you can alway pop a big one, esp. for a thrower like Eaton who's still developing. If he throws much over his 61.x PR from July, I don't think he's the type to be afraid of killing himself in the 1500 to go for a new WR. With a decent jav, OR looks very possible.

The Olympic record is 8893. Ashton needs 1512 to beat that. His PRs for the last 2 events would give him 1613. If he gets 1619 he would get 9000 points - only the third time that has ever happened. 1646 to beat Sebrle's old world record for the 2nd time.

He looked really good in the PV. Lots of runway speed, good clearance. But that event takes a lot out of you. Maybe he is saving it up for the 61m jav and 4:11 1500.

Genuine thanks for this helpful analysis.

Even prior to the competition, Eaton has said in several interviews that this is about the Gold Medal and that he would not be focusing on trying to re-set the World Record. He is smart to stick to his plan. This guy is truly a champion.

London Calling wrote:

Trey can hold silver with a solid jav. With 2 events to go look out for one of these two to rally for bronze:

6th pl 6889 (-38 from third) Hans Van Alphen 67.59m 4:17.51

8th pl 6783 (-144 from third) Leonel Suarez 77.47m 4:16.70

Eaton will run the 1500 just fast enough for the OR.

The drama now is will Trey hold silver. Another 57m jav like he had at the trials won't do it. He needs 62+m to get out of range of the surging pack that will finish around 8500-8550. If not, the 1500m will sort it all out, and Trey's 4:45 best case may not be good enough.

"Even prior to the competition, Eaton has said in several interviews that this is about the Gold Medal and that he would not be focusing on trying to re-set the World Record. He is smart to stick to his plan. This guy is truly a champion." (Quote).

*********

While he did say that, I strongly suspect that he and his coach always had an eye on the WR. They know a WR in the Olympics will be worth a lot of money via the extra media attention it will provide. Another poster stated that people don't care much about the WR and winning the Gold what matters and used Bolt as an example. Yes, winning the Gold is essential, but Eaton is not Bolt and needs all the media attention he can get to become a household name like Jenner was (and Clay was not). A WR will provide that.

I believe Eaton and his coach have been focusing on the weight events since the Trials and see the Javelin as perhaps the event he has the greatest room for improvement. That is because it is a technical weight event and one that favors athletes with physiques similar to his (unlike the Shot and Discus that favor bulk). They know any WR record will require a big PR in the Javelin. Lets see what happens.

66m throw for hardee. came up big

Of the possible medal guys

Suarez 76.94

Hardee 66.65

Warner 62.77

Van Alphen 61.69

Reimuth 57.37

Nice job by Hardee - almost 67m. That more or less locks him into Silver.

Freimouth (Vanilla Ice) threw 54, 56, 57. He's capable of low-mid 60s, so there were all weak throws for him. He's slow in the 1500, so he probably just gave away Bronze.

Warner out-threw Van Alphen! That's significant, adding a few more points buffer on him, but Van Alphen should beat him in the 1500.

Barring some crazy throw by Karpov or Kasyanov (aint gonna happen), the real race in the 1500 will be between Suarez, Warner, and Van Alphen. I think Suarez should take the bronze, but if he locks up, Van Alphen & Warner will be racing for the Bronze.... and Warner just might have a big PB left in those young legs. I was thinking 4:30, but on a fast track and a medal on the line, can he pull out a 4:24? I still think he needs help from Suarez to sneak in. Suarez is a gamer, and comes up big when it counts, medalling, what, 4 or 5 times already? in WC/Oly.

How many points did Suarez just make up on Hardee after that nearly 10 meter difference? I assume a whole heck of a lot, no?

158

Hardee has 218 point lead over 3rd going into 1500. He will have to beat the Cuban by more than 35 seconds.

If the Cuban PRs at 4:16 Hardee will need better than 4:51. So he better be running.