does anyone have a video of this race?
girls gettin real wild wrote:
Not very far at all. He will be there on the last lap but probably be outkicked.
He needs sub 8 shape to have a real chance at a medal. He might be in sub 8 shape by the London final. Barely.
So far in distance medal chances:
Rupp 5+10 40%
Lagat 5 30%
1500m guys 25%
*Jager 3kS 20%
Symmonds 8 20%
Hall Mar 15%
Teg 5%
Ritz <5%
We should get at least 1 or 2 medals on the men's side. This is definitely a big improvement from the teams in Beijing, Athens, and Sydney. The women should also get a medal or two probably either Montano and Uceny/Simpson.
This is a joke right?
i don't have time to change them all but off the top of my head:
Teg 0%
Ritz 0%
I'd also say Jager's are higher than the 1,500 guys combined. Wheating and Centro not racing in Monaco isnt good. Manzano ain't doing it.
This is a joke right?
i don't have time to change them all but off the top of my head:
Teg 0%
Ritz 0%
YES
Lagat 20%
symmonds 10%
Hall 3%
Rupp 3%
Jager 3%
Ritz: 0.001%
Teg: 0.001%
Lagat: 50%
Rupp:40%
Jager: 15%
Manzano: 2%
Centro: 5%
wheating: 0.1%
djd wrote:
Ritz: 0.001%
Teg: 0.001%
Lagat: 50%
Rupp:40%
Jager: 15%
Manzano: 2%
Centro: 5%
wheating: 0.1%
That looks better.
Off the top of my head, I'd say something like...
Rupp 30% (mostly for the 10k)
Lagat 20% (real tough field in the 5k...)
Jager 15%
Everyone else: 5%
e I have no other way to reach Mr. Jager, I use this forum in the hope he checks and I can add my word of congratulations on a magnificent race in such a difficult event. I think this would drop Henry Marsh, who is about m7y age, to No. 3 on the U.S. list with Dan Lincoln at No. 2. As for Jager's chances at a medal, we should bear in mind that no nation has dominated any event on the track over the past fourty years at the Olys and WC meet the way the Kenyans have dominated the steeple, not even the American men at 400 meters.Particularly with the barriers, I would think this is a race that can be controlled strategically from the front, and Jager might have to contend with Kenyan team tactics. I wish him all the best and am very excited to have him representing our country.
113 wrote:
Probable Probabilities wrote:Adjusting for your obvious US bias we are left with the following realistic probabilities for US medals:
Rupp 5+10 10%
Lagat 5 25%
1500m guys 10%
*Jager 3kS 10%
Symmonds 8 10%
Hall Mar 0%
Teg 0%
Ritz 0%
Overall about a 50% chance of zero medals on the men's side. Perhaps a 40% of one and 10% chance of more than one.
So the guy who will have either the fourth or fifth best mark in the field only has a 1 in 10 shot at a medal? Yep, that makes sense.
Actually, it does. Typical probabilities for this event are something like:
Top Time: 90%
2nd: 80%
3rd: 60%
4th: 30%
5th: 10%
6th: 8%
Rest of Field: 22%
Outstanding run in a difficult event. I can't believe it's only his 5th steeple. It will be interesting to see how he handles the rounds in London...
Would you morons stop giving out "percentages" on US medal chances. Pretending that your emotional desires on the matter are somehow mathematical calculations is really annoying.
Giant Johnson wrote:
Would you morons stop giving out "percentages" on US medal chances. Pretending that your emotional desires on the matter are somehow mathematical calculations is really annoying.
Would you please stop broadcasting your annoyance. I find that so annoying.
orbitboy- he didn't have time to change all your stats, but implied that more of those names needed to be adjusted, not just Teg's and Ritz's.
Personally, I'm not shocked by Jager's fast improvement. I have seen other runners make the switch from regular distance events to steeple and experience immediate success. Sometimes it's refreshing, mentally, to change your event, plus the barriers and the shorter distance break up the mental monotony he might have been experiencing at longer distances.
If Jager was Kenya dropping 11 seconds in one race, we would be accussing him of doping, how is that fair?
watchout wrote:
djd wrote:Ritz: 0.001%
Teg: 0.001%
Lagat: 50%
Rupp:40%
Jager: 15%
Manzano: 2%
Centro: 5%
wheating: 0.1%
That looks better.
Off the top of my head, I'd say something like...
Rupp 30% (mostly for the 10k)
Lagat 20% (real tough field in the 5k...)
Jager 15%
Everyone else: 5%
I can't see how Rupp is getting up to 40-50% chance. No way! He outkicked an aging Lagat in a slow race. I wonder how much real speed work Lagat had done up to the trials? Was probably doing speed work in Nike Shox then. Rupps pr is 12:58-9??? That wasn't enough to give Kennedy any shot above 20% in 1996, why would it show speed in 2012? Rupp will make the final, Rupp can be in the lead with 500 to go....He will loose 2-3 seconds in the final lap kick. He does not have the stride lenght or the power to kick at an african level. End of Game.
oh and the 10k at an olympic level is the same as a 5k. Rupp will just be along for the ride once the kick begins. Americans have made improvements, but its still boys among men when the real racing begins. if anything they are just in the way for 90% of the race. I still see no real competition here between americans and africans.
5k is no longer his race..... greatest potential is the event he is running now....He will go sub 8 mins in neaar future...
Runthedistance2 wrote:
If Jager was Kenya dropping 11 seconds in one race, we would be accussing him of doping, how is that fair?
Kenyans do it all the time without getting accused of doping. For example John Kosgei went from 8:25 to 8:05. So did Brimin Kipruto.
Paul Koech, Rueben Kosgei and Richard Maatelong all went from 8:25 to sub 8:05 in four races or less.
Also, fun fact: Jager's performance makes him #35 all time, and the #9 non Kenyan performer of all time. The Kenyans are just THAT good at Steeple.