Judge Lance Armstrong's running speed and form

LOL. Perfect.

Looks about right to me. For reference, I'm slightly slower (PR 1:18), and that's about what I look like when running 5:55 - 6:00 pace (except I am considerably smaller than Lance). I like to think I look much more graceful and powerful that that, but guess what: when I see videos of myself, I don't. Also, when I watch races that I don't run and see people running at about my pace (~35 min 10K / 58-59 min ten mile, 1:18-1:19 half), they don't look graceful and they don't look fast, and I think to myself, "Damn, do I really look that slow and weak when I'm out there?" (answer: yeah, I do).

Paul The Runner wrote:

Is anybody of you experienced in judging running form and pace? The link below shows the running part of Lance Armstrong's half ironman - 1:17 half marathon, that is about 5:50 mile pace. If I did not know that I'd say he is almost jogging at 7:00 mile pace. I may be deceived by his short stride and bulky upper body. What do you think?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS3P-1pFxlM

The cameraman ran about 50 feet. Running a half marathon at 5:50 pace after the swim and bike is solid. But most people can run that pace for 50 feet without too much trouble.

smd wrote:

observations wrote:

There is no way the cameraman running alongside him early on was running 5:50pace. At that stage of the race, I'd agree it looked like 7:something.

I agree, the cameraman is a tip-off. Usually when people on the sidelines try to keep up it accentuates rather than diminishes the difference between how racers and regular folks look at a good clip.

And if this is early in the run and he is running slowly after coming off the bike, then he would have to hit 5:30ish pace later on to run a 1:17 half marathon. Highly dubious.

BCT wrote:

The cameraman ran about 50 feet. Running a half marathon at 5:50 pace after the swim and bike is solid. But most people can run that pace for 50 feet without too much trouble.

That is just a BS statement. Most people can not run 5:50 pace for 50 feet. Sad, but true.

Runnerrer wrote:

how fast are those guys moving?

Olympic distance race is only a 10k run, so in the video with docherty sprinting to win they ran about 31 mins. some of the young itu guys can run under 30min 10K after 1500m swim, and 40k bike.

Fair enough, yet I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the cameraman in question, who wasn't exactly a fat fvck, could match my half marathon pace for a distance roughly equal to double the length of my living room.

Nutella1 wrote:

BCT wrote:

The cameraman ran about 50 feet. Running a half marathon at 5:50 pace after the swim and bike is solid. But most people can run that pace for 50 feet without too much trouble.

That is just a BS statement. Most people can not run 5:50 pace for 50 feet. Sad, but true.

BCT wrote:

The cameraman ran about 50 feet. Running a half marathon at 5:50 pace after the swim and bike is solid. But most people can run that pace for 50 feet without too much trouble.

smd wrote:

I agree, the cameraman is a tip-off. Usually when people on the sidelines try to keep up it accentuates rather than diminishes the difference between how racers and regular folks look at a good clip.

And if this is early in the run and he is running slowly after coming off the bike, then he would have to hit 5:30ish pace later on to run a 1:17 half marathon. Highly dubious.

My point isn't the average person can't run that pace for a short distance. It's that when they do try to keep up with someone racing, they usually look a lot different than the person racing, and help you realize how fast the racer is efficiently covering ground. For me the opposite happened watching this.

BCT wrote:

Fair enough, yet I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the cameraman in question, who wasn't exactly a fat fvck, could match my half marathon pace for a distance roughly equal to double the length of my living room.

Yes but not with a 50lbs camera...lol

Michael t. smith wrote:

As for the accuracy of the course, it must be said that Lance's marathon PR, set five or six years ago, is 2:46:42. A 1:17:00 half marathon, fresh, should be worth about 2:41 or 2:42.

This is very true. That was at a time when he was focused solely on running. And he is NOW in better running shape than 5 or 6 years ago (younger) and in probably better running shape?

That would translate to a 2:40 Marathon right now according to Jack Daniels formula predictor.

Something is fishy here.

cpaiglesias wrote:

This is very true. That was at a time when he was focused solely on running. And he is NOW in better running shape than 5 or 6 years ago (younger) and in probably better running shape?

That would translate to a 2:40 Marathon right now according to Jack Daniels formula predictor.

Something is fishy here.

1. I don't think he was really that focused on running. More on being a celebrity.

2. I believe that he is in better running shape now than he was back then

3. A 1:17 HM is never ever worth a 2:40 M. Those are miles apart. 1:17 is much easier.

4. I agree that something is fishy here.

Lance Armstrong is a judge now? Circuit or appellate?

Nutella1 wrote:

To Nutella 1: check Runbayou: VDOT calculator for equivalents.

cpaiglesias wrote:

This is very true. That was at a time when he was focused solely on running. And he is NOW in better running shape than 5 or 6 years ago (younger) and in probably better running shape?

That would translate to a 2:40 Marathon right now according to Jack Daniels formula predictor.

Something is fishy here.

1. I don't think he was really that focused on running. More on being a celebrity.

2. I believe that he is in better running shape now than he was back then

3. A 1:17 HM is never ever worth a 2:40 M. Those are miles apart. 1:17 is much easier.

4. I agree that something is fishy here.

Find a map of the course and measure it using GoogleEarth. It should close to the real distance.

I'm guessing there is a mix of folks replying, some who have half ironman (and other triathlon) experience, and so who don't. To point out the obvious, it's not as easy to run a given pace at the end of a half ironman as it is in an open half marathon. Especially a hot weather one, such as this... and, people tend to have more variation in pace/good sections-bad sections in a tri, so it is less easy to gauge by seeing a couple minutes of video. While I was a bit surprised Lance doesn't *look* better running (a bit plodding/awkward), this is quite solid triathlon running, especially for someone who has been out of the sport for so long. Lance beat some excellent highly experienced triathletes (Oscar Galindez, Chris Lieto, etc...), and Bevan Docherty had to have a pretty amazing run to beat Lance. For the pure runners here, I can give my times as an example - I never ran in school, took it up as an adult, and I'm sure I'm *much* slower than most of you - I was a 15:51 5k runner, did a half marathon as a solid training run in preparation for a marathon, at a bit under 6 minute pace (1:17) - and was only able to run 1:25 at the end of a half ironman tri (and this was a much harder effort - and, as a master, placed me relatively higher in the field). All this is to say that Lance's 1:17 is already quite good, and I expect better to come. Incidentally, in my personal opinion, for what little it's worth, there are only a few triathletes whose running forms are really stunningly good: if you aren't familiar with them, check out Luc van Llerde at his peak (up to ironman distance, at which he did the fastest time ever), and Carol Montgomery (olympic distance, she was such a good runner she also was selected at 10k for Canada's olympic team - unfortunately, a bad crash in the tri prevented her from racing the olympic 10k). I don't predict Lance will become a van Llerde-level runner, but he's already shown he's quite a triathlete after so many years away from the sport, it will be fun to see how much he improves!

As a distance runner and triathlete, I can say that the segment of the 1/2 marathon where this video was taken is also a big factor. I didn't spend too much time on analyzing the video, but it seems possible from the crowds that this is one of the first miles on the run. Try dismounting the bike from a 56 mile ride at race pace, stopping to bend over to put on your shoes when the blood pools and then start to run. There is no feeling in the world like it. Your legs are so tight and swamped with lactate that you can barely open up your stride. On a good day, after a few miles you start to open up and hit your stride. Some days, you never quite loosen up. When it is hot or cold, it is harder. I am a 1:11 1/2 marathoner and I would be very happy with a 1:17 in these hot conditions.

smd wrote:

My point isn't the average person can't run that pace for a short distance. It's that when they do try to keep up with someone racing, they usually look a lot different than the person racing, and help you realize how fast the racer is efficiently covering ground. For me the opposite happened watching this.

Kind of a minor point, but the photographer starts jogging when he's in front of Armstrong, taking a frontal shot, and finishes well behind with a low trailing shot over a 20 second segment of the video. He's running maybe 3/4 the pace Armstrong is running.

As others have noted above, it looks like Armstrong is just coming out of transition (note the arch in the background at the beginning of the video) during that segment and everyone looks and runs like crap at that point. It takes a few minutes to get a running rhythm going coming off the bike.

Kobyashi wrote:

He came back after a 2+ year layoff to place 3rd in the TDF at age 37 and now is debuting at the 1/2 Ironman Triathlon distance finishing second in the last mile to an Olympic medalist undefeated at the distance at the age of 40.

That statistic is a little misleading considering that the winner of this race has only competed in one previous half ironman race...

Sugestion? wrote:

Find a map of the course and measure it using GoogleEarth. It should close to the real distance.

seriously - 154 pages on David Litton, dentist and no one can do this?

The link to the course map is as below, but it doesn't have enough resolution to pinpoint the start or any of a the 180 degree turn around points.

http://www.ironmanpanama.com/pdf/Panama70.3_Run2011.pdf