TLW wrote:
Also having the fastest 5k/10k PR in the field means exactly nothing after 20 miles in the marathon.
No, but pre-injury Ritz ran 60:00 for the half, which is faster than everyone else in the field but Hall. He might not be in perfect marathon shape, but he did just run in the 13s twice for a road 5k so you know he's in shape. You can't count him out.
For any other athlete I would agree with you, but Ritz has had extremely poor results in the marathon so the fact that he ran 60:00 means very little. His fastest times have not translated up to his marathon performances.
His road 5ks were in the 13:50 range right?
2:10 and ninth in the Olympics hardly qualifies as poor, but surely the results are less than one would expect. As regards his current status, this seems to be the chronology. Due to two surgeries and the infection that followed he couldn't run for 5-6 months. He did do a great deal of core work though and presumably some cross training. He started running in the middle of June and it took eight weeks to get up to 90-100 miles a week. Then he continued base training for another eight weeks, bringing us to the middle of October. He then started marathon training and completely trained through the NYRR 5k (13:56)and through the San Jose 5k (13:49) (where he suffered from the effects of food poisoning and a cold that developed the day before the race). So, by the time he hits the starting line at the Trials, he will have had 16 weeks of base training, followed by 12 weeks of marathon training, followed by his taper. To repeat what I said earlier in this thread, Rupp reports Ritz is in "great shape" and Ritz's tweets are very upbeat. I actually expect a big breakthrough for him in Houston, especially if the pace is in the very low 64s.
TLW wrote:
For any other athlete I would agree with you, but Ritz has had extremely poor results in the marathon so the fact that he ran 60:00 means very little. His fastest times have not translated up to his marathon performances.
His road 5ks were in the 13:50 range right?
I agree that his performance at the Olympics was very good, but I stand by what I said which is his time of 2:10 is poor given his superb 5k and 10k times.
Montesquieu wrote:
2:10 and ninth in the Olympics hardly qualifies as poor, but surely the results are less than one would expect. As regards his current status, this seems to be the chronology. Due to two surgeries and the infection that followed he couldn't run for 5-6 months. He did do a great deal of core work though and presumably some cross training. He started running in the middle of June and it took eight weeks to get up to 90-100 miles a week. Then he continued base training for another eight weeks, bringing us to the middle of October. He then started marathon training and completely trained through the NYRR 5k (13:56)and through the San Jose 5k (13:49) (where he suffered from the effects of food poisoning and a cold that developed the day before the race). So, by the time he hits the starting line at the Trials, he will have had 16 weeks of base training, followed by 12 weeks of marathon training, followed by his taper. To repeat what I said earlier in this thread, Rupp reports Ritz is in "great shape" and Ritz's tweets are very upbeat. I actually expect a big breakthrough for him in Houston, especially if the pace is in the very low 64s.[quote]
You guys are funny. I assume you would call 1:04:20-40 "mid-64s"? And 1:04:15 or under "low-64s" ... so what is "very low 64s"? 1:04:09 or would it have to get down to 1:04:07 to be considered "very low"?
Do you honestly think that the result for one runner would be different should the race split 1:04:10 vs. say 1:04:45?
Maybe I am reading your post wrong, but most of you seem like you just got done reading Competitor magazine.
If the course is flat and fast, the top guys ARE ALL capable of 2:08-2:11 under ideal conditions (some may be faster!). The only ones that would be hurt by a 1:04-low start would be anyone who can't run 2:08:30.
You are reading too much into the pacing thing and whose physiology might benefit from a 1:06/1:04 type race and who might benefit from a 1:04/1:06 type ... or a 1:04/1:04 type.
All the guys at the top are accomplished track runners (Meb ran 13:11 and 27:13) it is just matter of how long ago they ran that and what age they are now, and how age has affected their physiology.
Ritz is still young and has the best marks at the top (3k/5k/10k), Meb has the best history of marks and has great 5k/10k ability, but has not run at that level in those events for years. Hall mas the talent to run in that same ballpark (8:10y/13:00/27:10) but topped out slower and that was years ago.
All of this talk about what would benefit who is all speculation not based on anything factual.
Meb didn't leave much time after NYC (he's only been training for real since Dec 5th or something -- he SAYS SO), plus he is older that everyone else. He has proven himself to BELONG at the top but he is probably the one most vulnerable.
Hall is also because he is a bit of a nut and him training himself I think is a big danger in the marathon. All the top guys know more about each other than they did in '07, so I doubt that he will run away from everyone like he did last time.
Ritz is vulnerable because of his recent injury problems ... but we are talking about the greatest talent to come along since Craig Virgin and someone who was once a VERY durable runner at the high school and early in college level. I could not give you odds, but I would never bet against Ritz. If he is healthy (even for just the last 4 months) I see him making the team.
I hope Hall makes it, because it would be a shame to see him not go to the Olympics when he has made such a huge effort in the marathon the last 5 years.
I hope Ritz makes it for the same reason, although he has a great shot in the 5/10. I only see him not making it if he is ill or has a terrible day or something like dropping out.
I doubt that Rupp will start, clearly he would run the 5k/10k and running the triple in the EPO age would kill someone tough, but it would crucify Rupp. So why risk running that hard when you don't have to? The guys with the pacing fantasies are morons. Do you honestly think that Rupp (or anyone else) would risk injury/health in an Oly yr, to help a teammate? If he starts I will eat crow.
Maeb will have a rough day and may not finish. I am sorry to say because I respect him a lot, but I can just tell in his interviews that he is not fresh and not strong right now. He should not have run NYC. Again, I will eat crow if he runs well.
Ritz is going to win...
Do people forget that Ritz steps it up a notch or two when everything is on the line. He may never run a fast marathon, but he sure as hell knows how to go through hell and compete.
Olympics, ritz beat hall,
09 WChamps- Ritz gets 6th and beat Rupp
3rd world half
3rd world jr cross
1st Ncaa xc off of like 6 weeks of running
He doesn't compete well when it's not a championship. Put a championship in the mix and my money is on Ritz!
Doc Holliday wrote:
Ritz is going to win...
Do people forget that Ritz steps it up a notch or two when everything is on the line. He may never run a fast marathon, but he sure as hell knows how to go through hell and compete.
Olympics, ritz beat hall,
09 WChamps- Ritz gets 6th and beat Rupp
3rd world half
3rd world jr cross
1st Ncaa xc off of like 6 weeks of running
He doesn't compete well when it's not a championship. Put a championship in the mix and my money is on Ritz!
I agree, but you should change your name to "Holiday", "Holliday" is not a word unless it is your real last name.
newname wrote:
Doc Holliday wrote:Ritz is going to win...
Do people forget that Ritz steps it up a notch or two when everything is on the line. He may never run a fast marathon, but he sure as hell knows how to go through hell and compete.
Olympics, ritz beat hall,
09 WChamps- Ritz gets 6th and beat Rupp
3rd world half
3rd world jr cross
1st Ncaa xc off of like 6 weeks of running
He doesn't compete well when it's not a championship. Put a championship in the mix and my money is on Ritz!
I agree, but you should change your name to "Holiday", "Holliday" is not a word unless it is your real last name.
Doc Holliday is a real person from the late 19th century...
Next thing you know you'll have to explain Wyatt Earp and John Ford.
Doc Holliday wrote:
newname wrote:I agree, but you should change your name to "Holiday", "Holliday" is not a word unless it is your real last name.
Doc Holliday is a real person from the late 19th century...
Montesquieu wrote:
Next thing you know you'll have to explain Wyatt Earp and John Ford.
And you'll have some explaining to do to, Mr. Montesquieu...
I agree with everything you say. When I wrote "low 64s," I meant to distinguish it from, say, 64:55--that is, a 45 second margin or so could be the difference between a 2:08 and a 2:09 marathon, and I think Ritz would see himself completely differently if he ran the former rather than the latter. It turns out the Ritz actually ran under 2:10 and under 60, but just by a few tenths in each case, and the time was rounded up. He's pointed this out enough times that it must bother him. Also, Hall now speaks of himself as a 2:04 marathoner, because he ran 2:04:58 in Boston rather than, say, three seconds slower.
The Overexplainer wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:2:10 and ninth in the Olympics hardly qualifies as poor, but surely the results are less than one would expect. As regards his current status, this seems to be the chronology. Due to two surgeries and the infection that followed he couldn't run for 5-6 months. He did do a great deal of core work though and presumably some cross training. He started running in the middle of June and it took eight weeks to get up to 90-100 miles a week. Then he continued base training for another eight weeks, bringing us to the middle of October. He then started marathon training and completely trained through the NYRR 5k (13:56)and through the San Jose 5k (13:49) (where he suffered from the effects of food poisoning and a cold that developed the day before the race). So, by the time he hits the starting line at the Trials, he will have had 16 weeks of base training, followed by 12 weeks of marathon training, followed by his taper. To repeat what I said earlier in this thread, Rupp reports Ritz is in "great shape" and Ritz's tweets are very upbeat. I actually expect a big breakthrough for him in Houston, especially if the pace is in the very low 64s.[quote]
You guys are funny. I assume you would call 1:04:20-40 "mid-64s"? And 1:04:15 or under "low-64s" ... so what is "very low 64s"? 1:04:09 or would it have to get down to 1:04:07 to be considered "very low"?
Do you honestly think that the result for one runner would be different should the race split 1:04:10 vs. say 1:04:45?
Maybe I am reading your post wrong, but most of you seem like you just got done reading Competitor magazine.
If the course is flat and fast, the top guys ARE ALL capable of 2:08-2:11 under ideal conditions (some may be faster!). The only ones that would be hurt by a 1:04-low start would be anyone who can't run 2:08:30.
You are reading too much into the pacing thing and whose physiology might benefit from a 1:06/1:04 type race and who might benefit from a 1:04/1:06 type ... or a 1:04/1:04 type.
All the guys at the top are accomplished track runners (Meb ran 13:11 and 27:13) it is just matter of how long ago they ran that and what age they are now, and how age has affected their physiology.
Ritz is still young and has the best marks at the top (3k/5k/10k), Meb has the best history of marks and has great 5k/10k ability, but has not run at that level in those events for years. Hall mas the talent to run in that same ballpark (8:10y/13:00/27:10) but topped out slower and that was years ago.
All of this talk about what would benefit who is all speculation not based on anything factual.
Meb didn't leave much time after NYC (he's only been training for real since Dec 5th or something -- he SAYS SO), plus he is older that everyone else. He has proven himself to BELONG at the top but he is probably the one most vulnerable.
Hall is also because he is a bit of a nut and him training himself I think is a big danger in the marathon. All the top guys know more about each other than they did in '07, so I doubt that he will run away from everyone like he did last time.
Ritz is vulnerable because of his recent injury problems ... but we are talking about the greatest talent to come along since Craig Virgin and someone who was once a VERY durable runner at the high school and early in college level. I could not give you odds, but I would never bet against Ritz. If he is healthy (even for just the last 4 months) I see him making the team.
I hope Hall makes it, because it would be a shame to see him not go to the Olympics when he has made such a huge effort in the marathon the last 5 years.
I hope Ritz makes it for the same reason, although he has a great shot in the 5/10. I only see him not making it if he is ill or has a terrible day or something like dropping out.
I doubt that Rupp will start, clearly he would run the 5k/10k and running the triple in the EPO age would kill someone tough, but it would crucify Rupp. So why risk running that hard when you don't have to? The guys with the pacing fantasies are morons. Do you honestly think that Rupp (or anyone else) would risk injury/health in an Oly yr, to help a teammate? If he starts I will eat crow.
Maeb will have a rough day and may not finish. I am sorry to say because I respect him a lot, but I can just tell in his interviews that he is not fresh and not strong right now. He should not have run NYC. Again, I will eat crow if he runs well.
Monsieur Charles-Louis de Secondat, Baron de Montesquieu to you, buddy.
Jesse was indeed a friend wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:Next thing you know you'll have to explain Wyatt Earp and John Ford.
And you'll have some explaining to do to, Mr. Montesquieu...
Latest tweet from Ritz:
"My plan in 2012 is to have a healthy Ritz back! That starts in 10 days, #Houston2012 #makeitcount last long workout in the books."
He doesn't tweet such things unless he's really fit. Also, one thing he's down is shorten his taper from previous marathons.
done, not down
newname wrote:
I agree, but you should change your name to "Holiday", "Holliday" is not a word unless it is your real last name.
No excuse for this in the 21st century.
I could have told you that! Dathan is not running unless he is healthy and fit, period. Anyone who goes off his latest road 5k race is a ??????, at best.
I don't care what he tweets, he will make the team.
Hall and Ritz are on the team unless a taxi cab runs them over during the race.
Meb, Jason, Brett, Nick, etc....will have to have their best races to even have a shot at making it.
Dathan has run about 3-4 minutes faster for a half then most of the top contenders. Yes, YES, it does matter. He has been there and his body HAS done it before, who else has except for Hall?
The Jesse guy, the match.com guy, etc....will be eating crow as Dathan will finish in the top 3 for sure.
Crystal Ball Clearly wrote:
Meb,... etc....will have to have their best races to even have a shot at making it.
He has been there and his body HAS done it before, who else has except for Hall?
Top Marathon Times
Meb Ritz
1 2:09:13 2:10:00
2 2:09:15 2:11:07
3 2:09:53 2:11:59
4 2:09:56 2:12:33
5 2:10:03 2:14:01
Who has been there and whose body HAS done it before?
I can only think that you must be trolling.
Hells Bells wrote:
Crystal Ball Clearly wrote:Meb,... etc....will have to have their best races to even have a shot at making it.
He has been there and his body HAS done it before, who else has except for Hall?
Top Marathon Times
Meb Ritz
1 2:09:13 2:10:00
2 2:09:15 2:11:07
3 2:09:53 2:11:59
4 2:09:56 2:12:33
5 2:10:03 2:14:01
Who has been there and whose body HAS done it before?
I can only think that you must be trolling.
I honestly don't believe the guy/gal was trolling. This only highlights the fact that there is practically nothing Meb can do to gain respect as a living legend. He's one of the top (Top 5?) American marathoners of all time at this point and folks continue to believe "he's never been where he has to go". Sad.
Reading comprehension can be your friend:)
I said he has run 60 for a half and is 3-4 minutes ahead of most of the other runners except Hall, that it what he HAS done before and yes, it translates to a much faster marathon. I am not ripping Meb and would actually like to see him finish in the top 3.
My point is Dathan's upside is huge...aka his potential. Running 2 1:04's in a row should not be a huge problem for him, yet we all know he hasn't done it yet.
For a guy who has yet to have a "great" race in the marathon, he is well beyond due. Actually, he is a rare case of a runner who has not popped one while having a great 1/2 pr and sub 13 leg speed for 5000 on the track. How many runners possess close to the same times at those distances, have run as many marathons as Dathan, yet only have pr's of 2:10 for the marathon? Good luck with your search, seriously.
His best race may have been in Beijing in terms of not being a heat runner and his overall place, but anyone on this board who knows anything about running, and there are few, has to know that a 2:10 flat is not anywhere close to his true potential.
Dathan is in shape and will run smart. In a way, it might be a good thing as he definitely has less pressure on him than 07' in NY since so many have written him off. He ran to make the team in 07' and did. I believe he will do the same next weekend even if someone runs out of their head that day. Top 3 people, he doesn't have to win and I personally don't think he will but top 3 is very, very possible. He is not over-raced for sure and has to be on the upswing in his training.
And to those who think there will be a blazing pace from the get go, I highly doubt it. I think the 2nd half will be faster for the top 3 guys but I don't see them taking a risk of going out in 1:03-1:04 when it's really not necessary with the field that is lining up. I highly doubt that Brett, Jason, Nick, etc...want to hit 13.1 in 1:04 flat with their pr's as it wouldn't bode well for a top 3 finish unless they were having the perfect race on that day.
A troll? Hardly. My pr's would beat 99.99% of the people who have ever posted on this board and I can only guess that most have yet to break 3 hours. I don't post here often as it is filled with trolls who are allowed to post with no repercussions whatsoever.
Carry on.
dsrunner has the day off wrote:
yes, after 20 miles at 5'/mile, the 14:00 5000m guys will be looking for a team spot.
Kawauchi has a 13:59 PB and yet would be a lock for a spot if he was American.