S&P Sell Signal

Opposite George wrote:

Are you saying that didn't sell at the lowest point of the year?

The entire point of this thread was to sell on Aug 21.

And everything is significantly up since then.

Are you saying you can predict the future? How do you know it was the lowest point of the year (it was lower in early August BTW)?

You would have had a very hard time selling stock on Aug. 21.

Opposite George wrote:

Are you saying that didn't sell at the lowest point of the year?

The entire point of this thread was to sell on Aug 21.

And everything is significantly up since then.

If you title the thread "Buy Signal", you'd be looking good right now.

Let me try to help a litte here, Opp George. Without context, what you're saying makes sense. But it's clear you don't quite understand what the OP is trying to accomplish.

Blowing Rock is clearly not following a short-term timing signal. The last buy was June, 2009. This is more of an intermediate or long-term signal.

The idea with such a signal is to catch a nice portion of the long-term up moves, and avoid the majority of the really big declines.

(Most of these intermediate/long-term signals don't catch the absolute top and bottoms. They can't, since they depend on a trend being formed, and at the top the trend is clearly still up.)

By avoiding the majority of the really big declines, you can afford to miss the beginning of new rallies and still end up ahead.

One week, or two weeks after a particular signal is just not going to tell you whether it was a good or bad call, if you understand the purpose of that trading system. Something over a several months is more appropriate.

Finally, no system bats 1000. But, by getting the big wins & avoiding the big losses, it can afford to have a lot of small misses.

THe OP probably should have spelled this out a little better in his original "sell" notification, and could have avoided your (and others') confusion. But then again, maybe you're just looking to argue.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

Are you saying you can predict the future?

No. I can't. At least I admit that.

But isn't informing people of a "Sell Signal" the same thing as trying to predict the future?

I agree that this short term stuff doesn't matter but the long term does. I am sure you are doing fine.

Just admit that the timing of your signal was wrong and move on.

Even if the Dow drops below 10,000, you were a couple thoudand points late.

Thanks coach d.

Your 19&39 week ema system looks interesting.

What system do you use for your gold buy/sells?

Regarding "trusting" your brokerage, and them being "safe"... what exactly are you guarding against - fraud, failure, or something else?

Oppsosite George wrote:

But isn't informing people of a "Sell Signal" the same thing as trying to predict the future?

No, I've made no prediction in this thread, or in any other, as to where I think the market will head. It's impossible to know.

But I did spell out in an earlier post on this thread how this system has done statistically for the past 50 years. It's wrong 50% of the time, when it's wrong it gives up a potential 6% gain on average. That is NOT the same as losing money. Right now I'm earning interest (pitiful as it is).

However, when it's correct it allows me to avoid a 16% loss on average. It also means I'll be buying back in at a 16% discount, which gives me a 19% gain when the market gets back to the level where I sold.

I'm very happy giving up a potential 6% gain half the time if it puts me ahead 19% the other half.

BTW, if you ever figure out how to pick the absolute tops and bottoms of the market let me know. As far as I'm aware nobody has ever been able to do that.

That's why I don't make predictions.

Tyre wrote:

As anyone who understands the market will tell you, past performance is not a reliable predictor of future behavior.

and the market is efficient, right?

Richard Dennis made piles in the 70s trading futures using trend systems. He bet his partner they could train people to use their systems and make money. They trained 40 novice traders, and they all made money for Dennis. Google "Turtle Traders" and you'll read the story.

Trend trading *still* works because people do not change. There is all this intellectual psycho-babble that describes fund managers who are in regulatory straight jackets, and cannot beat the market. The rules to which your garden variety fund manager is subject are so divorced from reality as to be laughable. But the whole industry reinforces this behavior (as do regulators and academia). And so of course a fund manager cannot beat his index, especially when he is REQUIRED to be 97% invested at all times, and is penalized for buying stocks outside the index universe. The rules of this game are almost designed for him to fail.

So it should not surprise people that BRM and others using these methods make significantly better returns OVER TIME. It worked 40yrs ago for Richard Dennis and it still works today.

Off the Grid wrote:

[and the market is efficient, right?

Richard Dennis made piles in the 70s trading futures using trend systems. He bet his partner they could train people to use their systems and make money. They trained 40 novice traders, and they all made money for Dennis. Google "Turtle Traders" and you'll read the story.

So it should not surprise people that BRM and others using these methods make significantly better returns OVER TIME. It worked 40yrs ago for Richard Dennis and it still works today.

Googled "turtle traders" - Cool story. Interesting to note the story after the experiment ended in 1985: "The exact system taught to the Turtles by Dennis has been published in at least two books and can be back-tested to check its performance in recent years. The result of such back-test shows a drastic drop in performance after 1986, and even a flat performance from 1996 to 2009."

i think therefore i am wrote:

Thanks coach d.

Your 19&39 week ema system looks interesting.

What system do you use for your gold buy/sells?

Regarding "trusting" your brokerage, and them being "safe"... what exactly are you guarding against - fraud, failure, or something else?

Start here:

There have indeed been scams with futures and particularly Forex brokers. There were rumors here in LA for years about Ira Epstein, but I believe that the CFTC cleaned it up.

WHAT ANYONE STARTING OUT WITH FUTURES SHOULD TELL YOU (but the big guys won't)

Understand going in that trading a futures account is not exactly the same thing as buying an EFT from Schwab. One thing anyone going in SHOULD understand is that floor traders have access to the order book--this is where the stops are listed. Everyone knows from the Commitment of Traders reports on what side of the market the commercial hedgers, the large traders and and small speculators are, so when the market starts moving against the little guy, the floor traders try to push the market to run stops and force people to exit. This is why essentially you CANNOT make money in the long run as a short-term trader in futures. You will be better off in the long term if you go into every trade with the assumption that Al Capone is on the other side (I do).

If you trade based on long-term moving average crossovers or weekly MACD, you will not be affected by this short term stuff. If you're long term you don't need to worry about stops set on technical chart patterns that the floor traders will use against you. You buy and sell based on your indicators.

I use both 19/39 EMA and weekly MACD and use both to confirm--May-July 2010 the MACD went into short mode, but using two indicators kept be from making a mistake. I optimize the parameters once a year based on the previous 5 year trading (weekly charts). The catch with these for intermediate term trading is that they give very few signals in S&P trading and the work best for markets that go in a single direction for a long time (years).

You will not likely get a signal for a short term entry in the gold market from those indicators. I bought in February 2009 on the last signal of the weekly MACD and it could be another year before there is any signal at all.

For shorter term entry points, I use the 5-10-20 day EMA system, which you can see descirbed here:

and now the rest of the story wrote:

Googled "turtle traders" - Cool story. Interesting to note the story after the experiment ended in 1985: "The exact system taught to the Turtles by Dennis has been published in at least two books and can be back-tested to check its performance in recent years. The result of such back-test shows a drastic drop in performance after 1986, and even a flat performance from 1996 to 2009."

The generic methods work. People are often unwilling to take the chance of repeated failure in developing their own methods.

Turtle trading still works, but if you copy it verbatim, its always going to be crowded.

The moral of the story should be, "Find your own path, but you don't need to stray too far from the main trail".

Off the Grid wrote:

The generic methods work. People are often unwilling to take the chance of repeated failure in developing their own methods.

Turtle trading still works, but if you copy it verbatim, its always going to be crowded.

The moral of the story should be, "Find your own path, but you don't need to stray too far from the main trail".

Back it up wrote:

How much have you made using these methods you tout? A dollar figure please.

I'm up 73% since 11/08 using real money. roughly 17 trades in this period, with mutual funds. It can be done with ETFs too. I am all cash now.

a bazillion....no....two bazillion...i keep losing track...

you want to learn how to trade futures

http://www.thefibdoctor.com/live-emini-trading-room

one word: FIBONACCI

Off the Grid wrote:

a bazillion....no....two bazillion...i keep losing track...

F*** you wrote:

Wait, aren't you the guy who said to Google Turtle Traders? I did that and read about the "traders" who don't make money by trading, but instead just tout the so called method. That sounds like you!

Nothing is for sale...I know it works for me. If you can't figure it out on your own, I am sorry. Keep trying. Its all free. You just have to figure out how to make it work for you.

Oppsosite George wrote:

...Just admit that the timing of your signal was wrong and move on.

Opposite George, you must be new here. BRM is NEVER wrong. He doesn't possess the intellectual capacity for acknowledging defeat.

I can think of 2 times I admitted I was wrong on LRC.

John Smallberries and I argued over whether or not the Bill of Rights actually meant anything. He finally convinced me and I admitted he was right that the Commerce Clause and the General Welfare Clause means the Feds can do anything they want.

I also argued with another poster (Brian?) whether or not hydrogen powered cars could ever be made practical. He finally showed me enough evidence to convince me they could be. I finally admitted he was right.

I'll even add a third time right now. anEconomist, if you're reading this, you are right. It will be a very very long time before housing prices get back to their 2006 levels.

So when you say I never acknowledge defeat and admit I'm wrong, you're wrong.

BTW, try coming up with a list of LRC posters who have ever admitted they're wrong. It'll be a very short list.

So the timing of this signal was right?

Opposite George wrote:

So the timing of this signal was right?

Dude, read the entire thread. It is obvious that the signal he posted about is not a short-term signal. He can't determine if it was "right" or "wrong" until more time passes (unless it signaled a buy really quickly).

Try to understand what you're arguing about before you make a fool out of yourself.

Off the Grid wrote:

Nothing is for sale...I know it works for me. If you can't figure it out on your own, I am sorry. Keep trying. Its all free. You just have to figure out how to make it work for you.

F*** you wrote:

But I have figured it out thanks to you. Using this great system you have made very little, if any, money. Thanks, but I'll pass.

..and THIS is why, after all these years, trend following STILL works!