Major drug bust from Jamaican trials in 100 meters

Nike wrote:

Using the diuretic Lasix does not mean everyone around you is using it. Some actually use it to lose water weight and pee out toxins. It's not some wonder PED. If the positive were for a specific enhancer, then we might suspect others in group.

If a professional athlete takes a banned substance, even if it only a diuretic, they deserved to be banned. This is their job, they should know better. Why would an elite sprinter need to lose water weight? Isn't that what body builders do before competition?

Nike wrote:

Using the diuretic Lasix does not mean everyone around you is using it. Some actually use it to lose water weight and pee out toxins. It's not some wonder PED. If the positive were for a specific enhancer, then we might suspect others in group.

"Some" might include hospital patients and people trying to quickly clear their system of something other than "toxins".

An athlete however might drink more fluids to "pee out toxins" or restrict salt or fluids to "reduce water weight".

dre217 wrote:

Tyson doesn't have to be tested if he's injured or post "surgery" so yes, in all likelihood I'd vouch for his withdrawal at US trials in the same weekend that his partner was tested as bloody suspicious, regardless of his well-reported squeaky clean image.

Seriously? You think this is a hoax:

Well, no need to post MY views again.

But consider this:

These top 100m guys who are running the circuit and posting sub-10 times are doing so in an environment of cramped travel, of sleep disturbance, of varying digestive comfort, and of training distortion.

To produce sub-10 clockings in such an environment, which is TOTALLY DEBILITATING FOR TOP-LEVEL PERFORMANCE IN AN OLYMPIC EVENT, is inconceivable except on rare occasions with good wind.

The best an athlete running circuit meets can hope for is that they are all nearby and that there is not too much of this disturbance. Take a guy like Lemaitre--doesn't run too often, and runs meets close to home, where he can optimize his training and preparation--that is why HIS sub-10 clockings are more believable than others.

It's hard to describe to those who haven't done it, the requirement to perform at 100% at the sound of a gun--even the slightest imperfection in preparation and training will have a grave effect.

Lots of these guys are suspect, just for the reason of them running sub-10's on the circuit while traveling.

And once again, there is no rational reason to believe that the top athletes of today--right now--should be inherently any better than the top athletes of, say, 10 or 20 years ago.

And also, at the top level, people in one camp know essentially what people in another camp are doing. People talk. I'm not saying there is a vast conspiracy, but there is a vast culture of conformity, both in attitude and action. It is subtle, but it is there--unfortunately, the dark side has taken hold and it is to that attitude that everybody basically conforms. Even if they don't dope themselves, they know other people are using, and don't say anything about it--not so much for legal reasons, but instead because they fear they have something to lose as far as their place in the sport goes.

As they say in grade school, nobody likes a snitch. And that's about the level of the prevalent mentality.

Sad, but true. Institutionally, it's not an honorable culture. That being said, the powers that be do essentially nothing to encourage an honorable culture. If they did, you wouldn't see the sprint powerhouses that you see today.

BTW, for those of us who know, it's easy to spot who's using. Period.

I appreciate your contributions, but really, the most believable sub-10 performer is the white guy?

Sprint Geezer wrote:

The best an athlete running circuit meets can hope for is that they are all nearby and that there is not too much of this disturbance. Take a guy like Lemaitre--doesn't run too often, and runs meets close to home, where he can optimize his training and preparation--that is why HIS sub-10 clockings are more believable than others.

USADA informant wrote:

I would add its for a new masking agent that potentially could bust dozens more in the days ahead.

Steve Mullings is based out of the USA just like 98% of all the other Jamaican athletes that tested positive since the 1980's. If I were you I would be more concerned about the members of the USATF.

Smoke and mirrors! I LOVE THIS POST! I said it b4 and I will say it again running ``9.80 is no easy feat, something that no American athlete has been able to do without some serious pharmaceutical help, including Maurice Green(have you ever wonder why Mo Green and Ato Boldon no longer speaks). Tyson Gay is really a 9.79%% athlete no better, as for Steve Mullings, I have one thing to say just come clean and let the world know what is really going on in your camp.

Sprint Geezer wrote:

I don't know about tons of withdrawals, I don't think the IAAF could weather that storm very well.

Remember it was, I think, the Jamaican nationals that were watched by a huge television audience worldwide.

It couldn't have been just for Bolt, since he didn't even run!

My guess is that they picked a fall guy to send a warning shot to everyone else.

Will the fall guy be bitter and squeal?

I hope so. I'd be pissed if I got banned for a 9.8x when some other clown didn't get banned for a 9.58

I doubt much will change but then again I am an old school skeptic who grew up in the Carl Vs. Big Ben era of sprinting in which clearly Ben Was the fall guy. I do recall the fiasco unfolding in (Seoul ironically) at the 1988 Olympics with many top sprinters failed tests and coverups.

alligator epo--

OK maybe not the single most believable of all, but up there with the most believable, Dix and Bolt, IMHO.

I know, that's whacked.

Here are the sub-10 guys this year, in order of uncorrected times:

Powell

Gay

Mullings

Rodgers

Frater

Bolt

Makusha

Carter

Lemaitre

Bledman

Patton

Dix

Blake

Gatlin

Ashmeade

Salaam

Bailey

Padgett

Ndure

Of this list, Gay is out.

Clermont times are suspect, so Bledman and, IMHO Ashmeade, are out.

Eugene times are suspect, so Patton is out.

Mullings is out, for obvious reasons.

Gatlin and Blake are not as believable as Lemaitre, for obvious reasons, so they are out.

Those remaining are:

Powell

Rodgers

Frater

Bolt

Makusha

Carter

Lemaitre

Dix

Blake

Salaam

Bailey

Padgett

Ndure

Lemaitre has 4 sub-10 clockings this year, all very close to each other in time, and all requiring some wind (9.92 +2.0, 9.95 +1.0, 9.95 +1.0, and 9.96 +0.9) His best corrected time this year is in fact only 10.00, and those 4 times corrected are an incredibly consistent 10.01, 10.00, 10.00, and 10.00). He ran at Albi, Stockholm, Lausanne, and Montreuil, all VERY close to his home training base. The realistic times, the consistency, and the meet venues and timing make his performances believable.

Ndure, Padgett, Bailey, and Salaam each have only 1 sub-10 this year and are all just a bit under 10.00 (9.99, 9.99, 9.97, and 9.97 respectively), and required positive wind of 1.0, 2.0, 0.5, and 1.3 respectively, so they are believable with no further details considered, but because they might be less consistent than Lemaitre, they MIGHT be less believable.

In with this group we can put Rodgers, who only has 1 legitimate sub-10 corrected time this year (10.04 -1.6, or 9.94 corrected).

Slightly less believable than these 5 is Makusha, with only 1 sub-10 clocking this year, but well under 10.00 at 9.89--but in his favor he did require a positive wind of 1.3 to do it--however this is coming close to what I believe to be the limits of performance, so it not unbelievable, only less believable than the first 5.

Powell is a toss-up because of his 9.78 (+1.0) (which is too fast unless he is the fastest of all time, of which the chances are slim), and because of his consistency--he has ONLY sub-10's listed on the IAAF chart. To me, that is suspect--this guy runs under 10 no matter how well he slept, no matter what he ate, no matter what the stage of his training, no matter what niggling injuries he has, no matter what. That's not as believable as Lemaitre because that record is just TOO good, unless like I said, he is the GOAT by far, which is just statistically unlikely.

Remaining are Frater, Bolt, Carter, Dix, and Blake.

Bolt is just as believable as Lemaitre, IMHO. He has been pushing hard, and his times look legit.

Dix is also just as believable as Lemaitre, IMHO. He has also been pushing hard, and his times also look legit.

Remaining are Frater, Carter, and Blake.

Frater is having the season of his life and is quietly compiling one of the best seasons of anybody, ever--and the same thing can be said of Carter. I honestly don't know what to think of these 2. Carter has been in my target due to his hypertrophy, his attitude, and his Johnson-esque style. But these 2 are wildcards.

So we have IMHO Lemaitre, Dix, and Bolt who are all equally believable this year at sub-10, with the one-hit-wonders Ndure, Padgett, Bailey, Salaam, Makusha, and Rodgers close behind.

Your dead right on that.... Same goes for the double WR holder who was given the order to only appear in relays after he got caught. IAAF got that one fixed together with Nike's athlete's manager... More stuff going on than we all think...

Makusha ran 9.97 at the ACC Championship meet in North Carolina in late April to make it 2 sub-10s for him.

Who are you referring to stat guy?

Kabayo**

I have it on good word that at least one more major bust is to come. This one is not Jamaican - a fast athlete is all I can say right now.

James Lee said that "running 9.80 is no easy feat, something that no American athlete has been able to do without some serious pharmaceutical help, including Maurice Greene...Tyson Gay is really a 9.79 athlete no better"

James, IMHO NO athlete has ever been able to run sub-9.80 without serious pharmaceutical help, except for MAYBE Powell.

Bailey COULD have done it in 1996 if he had had either a start or a 2.0 instead of a 0.7 wind--but he didn't.

Surin COULD have done it in 1995 if he had had a 2.0 instead of a 0.2 wind--but he didn't.

Fredericks COULD have done it in 1996 if he had had a 2.0 instead of a -0.4 wind--but he didn't.

Boldon COULD have done it in 1998 or 1999 if he had had a 2.0 instead of -0.4 or +0.1 wind--but he didn't.

etc.

The point of this is that to run a sub-9.8, an athlete would need to BOTH run their perfect race, AND have the luck of excellent conditions of wind and temperature. For these 2 things to coincide effectively never happens. We see some guys have essentially their perfect race, but not perfect conditions--other guys we see have excellent conditions, but not their perfect race.

Of the remaining athletes who have done it, or who might have done it if conditions had allowed:

Johnson, Montgomery, and Gatlin got caught;

Carter's 9.78 in Rieti and Mullings' 9.80 in Eugene are bogus times, and it also looks like Mullings is caught;

Gatlin's 9.85 (0.6), Blake's 9.89 (-0.4)and Christie's 9.87 (0.3) were likely drug-assisted given the doping histories of these athletes, and should be removed from the list;

Thompson's 9.89 (0.0) and Obikwelu's 9.86 (+0.6) are right on the line, looked to be excellent runs, and would be 9.80 with a +2.0 wind, but not sub-9.80...

Atkins' 9.91 (-0.5) from 2007 is so far a legitimate contender, and could have been a 9.79 with a +2.0 wind--only just dipping under the 9.80 mark...

The remaining contenders are Bolt, Gay, Powell, and Greene.

Sub-9.8 is one thing, sub-9.7 is another entirely. Bolt and Gay should be crossed off the list, as should Powell--his 9.72 (0.2) is actually faster than Gay's 9.71 (0.9)

Greene is just lucky he didn't get caught, so he should be off the list.

So we have these people who may have been clean and who could have done it, given better conditions: Bailey, Surin, Fredericks, Boldon, Atkins...

And we have 1 guy who actually has done it, and who likely lies somewhere around the limit of performance, if not beyond: Powell.

Powell MIGHT be believable if he is essentially Bailey with a start...his form is so much better than just about anybody else's, that might just be enough to account for his superior times.

That's only 5 believable guys ever who might have done it, and only 1 POSSIBLY believable guy who actually HAS done it.

And people are calling Atkins into question now, and if that inquiry bears fruit, that leaves really only 4+1 guys in the FAT era, with only the +1 guy ACTUALLY having gone under 9.80

So Gay might be a believable 9.79 guy if he gets lucky--but only if, and only just.

Powell and Bolt seem to have played it smartly--Bolt's times this year are believable, as are Powell's, except for his 9.78 (+1.0) lying at the limit of believability. I would be surprised to see either of these guys getting caught for anything this year.

I would not at all be surprised to see Carter or Blake go down, and only slightly less surprised to see Frater go down.

But the bottom line is that if Pharmalita has not yet been caught, EVERYONE in the 100m, men's and women's, is suspect.

Glad to see noone's blind to her ;)

Right, sorry, I forgot about that one.

I like Makusha, and I think he is believable, if not as consistent as some others.

He reminds me of Donovan Bailey.

Capable of a good start, but he hasn't put it together in a race yet.

This guy Makusha, if he can put it all together, will be one of the fastest of all-time. With a start, good wind, good RT, and good fitness, he will go where Bailey COULD have gone, but didn't--deep into the 9.7x's

For him, for all of us, I hope he gets lucky and pulls it off!

Lemaitre is the dirtiest of them all - for obvious reasons.

Sprint Geezer wrote:

Right, sorry, I forgot about that one.

I like Makusha, and I think he is believable, if not as consistent as some others.

He reminds me of Donovan Bailey.

Capable of a good start, but he hasn't put it together in a race yet.

This guy Makusha, if he can put it all together, will be one of the fastest of all-time. With a start, good wind, good RT, and good fitness, he will go where Bailey COULD have gone, but didn't--deep into the 9.7x's

For him, for all of us, I hope he gets lucky and pulls it off!

Well he is primarily a long jumper....