DID SOLINSKY JUST RUN 3:35?

iloveunderdogs wrote:

I believe Solinsky just placed 2nd to R. Brown with Batty in 3rd, in 3:35!!

THATS FASTER THAN WEBB HAS GONE IN LIKE HALF A DECADE, LOL.

SOLINSKY MEDALS IN THE 5K AT DAEGU. CALLING IT NOW.

I would love him to medal, or even win, but before you get all excited about his prospects, realize this:

Moorcroft (in 82) ran

3:49 Dream Mile

7:32 3000m (WR was 7:32.4)

13:00 WR in 5k (previous was 13:06)

had previously run 3:33 for 1500m

He had been running seriously for 12 yrs or so. That year year couldn't even win the Euro Champs.

Did you doubt that a 12:56 / 26:59 guy could run 3:35? That is NINE secs off the WR. Back in the time of Coe/Ovett/Cram that kind of time would translate to a 3:40 1500.

Good for Solinsky. I hope he can get PRs at 1500, 3000, 5 and 10 this year. But that does not surprise me nor does it make me think he will be a top-three threat.

arent we forgetting someone in this entire thread? i mean i love solinsky and all and he's a great runner, but what about russel brown? he was the guy who one the race after all. the dude not only pr'ed in his season opener but he's been having one hell of a year so far. i mean, yeah good for chris and all, but shouldnt this be a little bit more focused on the guy who won? the guy who pred in his season opener 1500m (correct me if im wrong on that)? the guy who has been flying under the radar for the last three years due to injury and is now having these breakout performances (mt sac win in a pr, boston indoor games win over nick willis in a pr)? should we start speculating on the potential of this guy who finally seems to be getting things right for himself?

before the race i thot russel would be the dark horse to win it, after the win should we be thinking myabe we have another 1500m hopeful on our hands? im placing my bets down now that if russel gets the A standard, he'll be the dark horse for the world team in the 1500m, with wheating, lomong and manzano being the other contenders. russel gets it over manzano

"Russell"

"Aren't"

"won"

"shouldn't"

"pr'ed"

"I'm"

"thought"

kartelite wrote:

I was thinking the same thing. I can't think of anyone who's medalled in the 5k who hasn't run 3:26 - low 3:30's (or been capable of it anyway).

26mi235 wrote:

Awfully short memory.

kartelite wrote:

Who?

malmo wrote:

Not only a short memory, but a glutton for punishment too.

Aw, give poor kartelite a break. He's obviously a young guy, not thinking way back to, say, the 2008 Olympics, where Edwin Soi won a bronze with a 1500m best of 3:44.76. Much less the 2007 WCs (ancient history!) when Moses Kipsiro picked up bronze with a 1500m best of 3:42.40 -- though to be fair, he did improve to 3:37.6 the next year.

And yes, I realize that kartelite will argue that those guys were both "capable" of 3:26 - low 3:30s. That's known as "circular reasoning": to win a major 5000m medal, you need 3:30 speed --> anyone who wins a 5000m medal therefore must have 3:30 speed even if they haven't shown it --> that proves that you need 3:30 speed to win a 5000m medal.

2009 Bronze James Kwalia best 3:37

2008 Silver Kipchoge 3:33.2, Edwin Soi 3:44.76

2007 Bronze Moses Kipsiro 3:37.6

2005 Gold Benjamin Limo 3:37.6 Silver Sileshi Sihine NT Bronze Mottram 3:33.97

2008 Bronze Kipchoge 3:33.2

2003 Gold Kipchoge 3:33.2

2001 Gold Richard limo 3:40.2 Silver Million Wolde 3:39.15 Bronze Mo Mourhit 3:36.14

2000 Gold Wolde, Bronze Lahlafi

1999 Gold Hissou 3:33.95 Silver B Limo, Bronze Mourhit

1997 Silver Boulami, Bronze Nyruiki 3:59 (mile)

1996 Silver Bitok 3:31.96 Bronze Bayisa 3:35.35

You should take Bitok, Kipchoge, and Mottram out of that list, to be fair - the guy said low-3:30s, I think that means at least through the 3:33s.

elton wrote:

You should take Bitok, Kipchoge, and Mottram out of that list, to be fair - the guy said low-3:30s, I think that means at least through the 3:33s.

I suppose that we'll have to take your word on it?

It does? Not 3:30 or 3:31? 3:33? What about 3:30 - 3:34? is that low? IS 3:35 - 3:39, the high 3:30s? But your sure 3:33 means 'low'? Is that below 3:33 or up to 3:33.99?

Bitok didn't run 3:31.96 until he hit that on-off race in 2001, years after his last 5000 medal. His best time until then was 3:35.8 and generally he was running in the high 3:36s to low 3:40.s during the years in which he earned medals.

That's interesting that Bitok made a huge improvement in his 1500m PR five years after earning a medal at a longer distance. If one were so inclined, as I imagine kartelite might be, one could point to that as evidence that many of these 5000m runners with 1500m PRs of 3:36-3:40 had "low-3:30s" capability without ever posting a time in that range.

I've wondered what Paul Tergat might have been capable of for 1500m at his prime. His listed PR is 3:42.3, but that was an en-route split time from a 7:28 3000m performance. I suppose it would be too ventolin-y to posit that he was a "low-3:30s" guy in all but the record books?

My brother sucks.

elton wrote:If one were so inclined, as I imagine kartelite might be, one could point to that as evidence that many of these 5000m runners with 1500m PRs of 3:36-3:40 had "low-3:30s" capability without ever posting a time in that range.

Of course. The thing is, the guys who've ACTUALLY run 3:31 (as opposed to being notionally capable of it) would all tell you that, if they'd managed to get into the right race with the right weather at the right time in their training cycle during that one year when everything was going well, they're pretty sure they could have gone 3:28. Under the right circumstances.

There's ALWAYS a gap between what someone is capable of and what they actually manage to run. Of course the gap is bigger for some than others -- we can all agree that Geb came closer to his "ultimate" 1500 potential than Tergat. But at the end of the day, when you start throwing around times, you have to decide whether you're talking about times that people actually run, or times that they think they could run.

The reason we're having this discussion is because of the claim that Solinsky's 3:35 is no big deal, because every 5k medalist is capable of going much faster. But why do so many of them NOT run faster, as Malmo demonstrated? Presumably because they don't run many 1500s, and the few that they do run are early season when they're not in peak shape, and not in big European GPs where they might get dragged to a super-fast time. Which, when you consider it, is precisely Solinsky's situation: his 3:35 in April is no different than, say, Soi's 3:37 as a representation of his "ultimate" abilities -- except that it's two seconds faster.

RUSSELL BROWN WAS NOT THE F*CKING UNDERDOG IN THIS RACE, LOL!!

SOLISNKY SAID IN THE INTERVIEW "MAN IF I'M DUKING IT OUT WITH ONE OF USA'S BEST MILERS, THATS PRETTY GOOD"

THIS WAS RUSSELL'S RACE TO LOSE, IF YOU WANT HIM TO GET RESPECT, HOW ABOUT YOU GIVE HIM RESPECT. D*MB C*NTS.

everyone here is missing one important point, you have to be able to run well in a tactical race. fastest does NOT always mean that you can always win. solinsky does not need to be the fastest seed going into the race to have a shot at a medal, he needs to have the best race mentality/strategy.

iloveunderdogs wrote:

RUSSELL BROWN WAS NOT THE F*CKING UNDERDOG IN THIS RACE, LOL!!

SOLISNKY SAID IN THE INTERVIEW "MAN IF I'M DUKING IT OUT WITH ONE OF USA'S BEST MILERS, THATS PRETTY GOOD"

THIS WAS RUSSELL'S RACE TO LOSE, IF YOU WANT HIM TO GET RESPECT, HOW ABOUT YOU GIVE HIM RESPECT. D*MB C*NTS.

Please provide evidence as to how Brown is that favoured over Solinsky. They both ran the same mile time indoor didn't they? Combine that with Solinsky's experience and age , and its not hard to see how Solinsky could be perceived as the favorite.

Note, I don't agree with this, I called Brown for the win - he seems to have developed a knack for beating big names - I'm just playing devil's advocate.

hold the phone wrote:

Aw, give poor kartelite a break. He's obviously a young guy, not thinking way back to, say, the 2008 Olympics, where Edwin Soi won a bronze with a 1500m best of 3:44.76. Much less the 2007 WCs (ancient history!) when Moses Kipsiro picked up bronze with a 1500m best of 3:42.40 -- though to be fair, he did improve to 3:37.6 the next year.

And yes, I realize that kartelite will argue that those guys were both "capable" of 3:26 - low 3:30s. That's known as "circular reasoning": to win a major 5000m medal, you need 3:30 speed --> anyone who wins a 5000m medal therefore must have 3:30 speed even if they haven't shown it --> that proves that you need 3:30 speed to win a 5000m medal.

Well, I do think you can make the case that some of these guys were capable of running "low" 3:30s based on their 3k times. For example:

Mourhit, 7:26.62

Kipchoge, 7:27.72

Bitok, 7:28.41

B Limo, 7:28.67

Hissou, 7:28.93

Soi, 7:29.75

Yes I know that 3k is different than 1500, but anyone that can run 7:26 should be able to run faster than 3:36.

Left a couple of sub 7:30s off...

Kwalia, 7:28.28

Lahlafi, 7:28.94

Sihine, 7:29.92

malmo wrote:

Bronze Mottram 3:33.97

Don't play dumb malmo (or don't be dumb), Mottram ran a 3;48 mile in 2005. That's worth 3:31.

Brown is sharp now, whereas Solinsky is not. But Brown did walk him down and give him credit for beating Willis indoors and now running 3:35. Solinsky did not look like he has had the speedwork yet. But he did look fit (and lighter than last year) and he looked to me like he is capable of holding a pace not too much slower than this one for a long time now. Is he running the 10 at Payton Jordan? 3:35 in April is very, very good for an American. Remember that the best ever American mile in April is Webb's 3:51, and 3:35 high is worth about 3:53, plus it is obviously not Solinsky's best event. He should have a very good year. Maybe in July, he'll run 3:32 when he's in top 5000m shape, and break 12:54 the next race (in July or maybe after Daegu). Teg back at 3:40. Not a bad result for him.

one point wrote:

everyone here is missing one important point, you have to be able to run well in a tactical race. fastest does NOT always mean that you can always win. solinsky does not need to be the fastest seed going into the race to have a shot at a medal, he needs to have the best race mentality/strategy.

Really? Gee!

elton wrote:I've wondered what Paul Tergat might have been capable of for 1500m at his prime. His listed PR is 3:42.3, but that was an en-route split time from a 7:28 3000m performance. I suppose it would be too ventolin-y to posit that he was a "low-3:30s" guy in all but the record books?

asked nicely & you shall receive

trying

a prelim estimate for him ( remember, just prelim ) is off

53.50 / 1'51.25 ->

3'35.9

7'27.6

12'45.6

26'24.2

so, my impression was that tergat was no "low-3'30" guy ( whatever that means )

more pertinently, i don't think he couda broken 3'35