If properly coached, the average relatively fit college male could run a ___ 8K

26:07 after 4 years

note the restriction, "if properly coached." so, citing a road race result is not going to prove anything.

To illustrate what proper training can accomplish for young guys that have already been running with teams for a number of years, check out what a local college team has done this year. They had one guy under 28 last year (way under 28). By the beginning of October this year, the same guy was way under, one guy was at mid 27 and the third guy was just under 28, while the others were at 28 to 30. They then got 7 under 28, with four under 27. Last week, they averaged 26 for their top five, with three under 26 and five under 27, with two more at mid 27. This team was ready to do brutal training sessions this year, with some easy days to recover, and proved that it is in fact possible for college runners to improve by 2 to 3 minutes in under a month, toward the end of the season.

You are not an average college age male as far as running goes. Most people can not run 8K under 30 min! The average guy training for a year or so would probably have trouble dipping under 35 min. Of course some small percentage would go under 30...but they're not the average guy.

I'm a college male with average motivation and I don't run at all. I sure I could pull like a 35 as a tempoish run now, I have a hard time believing my overweight counterparts could beat that even with high motivation. Average motivatoin? Try 45 minutes

I find your comment very funny. I realize that 5:05 takes talent. The 18:15 5k time, was a race I ran last year. I was 22 at the time. So keep your beliefs to yourself kid.

Lots of opinion and anecdote but little data. Here are 8K data from four large road races (Feaster 5 in Andover, Brea in LA, Shamrock in Portland OR, and Seafair in Seattle). These are the median times. Even though they are large races, there are clearly large sampling errors.

Age Feaster Brea Shamrock Seafair

M18 45:23 34:35 39:37 37:54

M19 41:09 39:02 46:57 38:18

M20 39:05 39:21 47:50 36:02

M21 37:50 45:04 39:00 37:51

M22 42:50 42:54 41:18 38:28

The road 8K data are probably overestimates since they don't reflect a pool of "properly coached" runners, so here is a different empirical data set. I took a large (730 finishers) high school 5K xc race in Maine (Festival of Champions) and found the median time of the seniors only. These kids are "properly trained" and represent a pretty broad spectrum of athletic ability (including very low end). I used McMillan's calculator to convert to 8K. The result is 32.46. I assume a similarly sampled set of college students would run slightly faster, but not much, and maybe none with only "4 months" of training.

Ray L wrote:

This entire post can be debated forever, but most of the anecdotal evidence would make even a junior high science student shudder. In the case above, how can anyone call a college athlete (regardless of sport) "an average fitness level". Have any of you seen the slobs walking around the average college campus???? The average college student hasn't done any exercise in the last 4 years.

sorry someone pissed in your lemonade this afternoon, dude. it's a stupid question to begin with; no fitness level was ever pre-determined, i just gave a real-life scenario that may shed light on the discussion. aside from a few other posts, it's about as accurate as we're going to get. get over yourself.

Another real life situation: I went to a small private college when I competed. At the top, we had some great talent (2 sub 14:30 5k's, me at sub 15; and the top 4 were 24:30-25:45 at 8k xc). Our #7 we found on campus. we needed a 7th guy, and he was a friend of the #4 guy. Real funny guy-- a farmer. He was 20 years old, had never run before, but loved the concept of XC. He gave it a try, and after 2-3 weeks he was hooked. He ran 30-45mpw that fall, and finished our conference meet running 31:29 for 8k. Moderately challenging course, won by a kenyan in 24:55. Here is another real-life example of someone who had barely exercised his first 2 years of college, and with a bit of training, managed 6:05 pace.

Alright Mr. Ray, go ahead and criticize that, i know you will... come to think of it, every Ray that I've ever known has always been self-righteous and thinks they're better than everyone else. What's up with that?

Ray L wrote:

This entire post can be debated forever, but most of the anecdotal evidence would make even a junior high science student shudder. In the case above, how can anyone call a college athlete (regardless of sport) "an average fitness level". Have any of you seen the slobs walking around the average college campus???? The average college student hasn't done any exercise in the last 4 years.

You know, it is losers like you with bad attitudes and negative expectations that hold back running in this country. You think Kenya and Ethiopia are dominated by clowns like you?

Look, I ran a 21:19 8k on an XC course and probably could scare 20 min on the track. And I am definitely nothing special talent-wise. If you think the right answer is over 21 min you are both out of your mind and part of the problem.

SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS; taking a set of runners as typical of a set of moderately athletic guys in terms of how they would do at running. This might be an ok sample for doing something non-running but for running you have selected out most of those that do not run well and do not have the mental set for training and racing. Particularly troubling is this "(including very low end"; maybe athletically not not in the running domain. Few of these guys weigh 220 pounds, which a significant subset of your moderately athletic guys will. I could say the same thing with 200 pounds but there would be a much larger set of the college guys in the group. Now down to 180; still few in this set but now you have included a significant number of the athletic guys. These guys train for five months, but they train as typical runners, not in a York boot camp; and in the five month exercise you have to count all those who could not cut it and include them in the average.

middle professor wrote:

The road 8K data are probably overestimates since they don't reflect a pool of "properly coached" runners, so here is a different empirical data set. I took a large (730 finishers) high school 5K xc race in Maine (Festival of Champions) and found the median time of the seniors only. These kids are "properly trained" and represent a pretty broad spectrum of athletic ability (including very low end). I used McMillan's calculator to convert to 8K. The result is 32.46. I assume a similarly sampled set of college students would run slightly faster, but not much, and maybe none with only "4 months" of training.

Excellent - at least we're hand waving about actual data and not anecdote! I have no dog in this fight and have offered both high (~38 min based on road 8K) and low (~32 minutes based on HS xc 5K) estimates. Both these estimates are quite a bit higher than opinions of many runners here who think anyone can go out and run a sub 28 minute 8K with little training or effort.

That said, while my sample of Maine HS xc runners doesn't include the large kids playing football it also doesn't include the very athletic kids playing soccer and (yes) golf. I'd also disagree that the set of HS xc runners samples out "those that don't run well and do not have the mental set for racing". HS xc teams in maine don't have tryouts and in many schools there is some pressure to participate as a sport (the schools are small enough that most kids play sports). As a consequence many kids that perceive themselves as not having the athletic ability to perform well in the glamour sports do xc/indoor/outdoor instead. As a consequence every xc race has a few kids whose times are at about that required of a brisk walk. While my data are statewide, my interpretations are biased by living in an affluent town in coastal maine where parents tend to be hyper fit and obesity rates among kids are very low. This also means that the "answer" for a college with a high percentage of urban/suburban high SES kids (say an Amherst or Williams) will be very different than the answer for a college with a large percentage of rural and/or low SES kids.

1 second per lap faster than if they were poorly coached.

Which comes out to 20 seconds for an 8k.

Obviously!

It all depends on what kind of talent the guy has. Andrew wheating for example or just a guy who wants to run. I have seen guys run sub-30 8k on their first time out and finish a season with 28. I knw guys that can run everyday and never brake 32min.

It all depends on how well the guy is built for running.

I think the question you are all wondering is whether Jared could break 30 minutes?

we are missing the main factor what course.A hilly one flat and fast or one with uneven footing.

He said his fitness was slightly above average, not his intelligence

you're not getting the point. being coached for years does not qualify as "properly coached." certain coaches achieve dramatically better results for hs and college athletes than others. So, if you want data, maybe you should compare, say, The Woodlands or York or Fay/Man to comparably sized schools. Great programs get the guys who come out to run 3 or 4 minutes faster than typical high school programs (like mine, a team in the middle of our ordinary league, worse than some, better than others) OVER 5k.

If you can do 8k in 24 minutes, that's a wining time in most small races! So not many can reach that level even after years of training!

If 24 minutes 8k is as easy as some of you makes it look like, then that will make a 15 minutes 5k nothing at all!

Someone who can run a 24 minutes 8k has a potential to go sub 15 minutes 5k!

You are obviously way more of a fast twitch guy than the average person. I can onky run 68/2:34 and can run 33 minute 8k with 3 months at 30mpw.