Sub 2 Hour Marathon

I don't want to disagree too much but has 3 resulted in any changes to training? yeah people now throw around neuromuscular coordination a lot but as far as I can tell it hasn't changed training much.And given 1) can we safely say that we have seen the fastest possible womans 800m?:)

sthm wrote:

How long do you think it will be before we see a sub 2 hour marathon? Is the first sub 2 guy alive today?

NEVER, if I achieve my goal. But you could still hear it, I suppose.

unlikely wrote:

wellnow wrote:

Yes it will. The record will go a long way under 2 hours this century. And that can be done without drugs and by someone with normal genetics.

The thought of much faste times makes you feel very insecure doesn't it. Well get over it.

Yeah, about as insecure as your silly assertions about "neuromuscular coordination" with zippity doo dah to back them up and no practical application whatsoever besides.

Which is to say, not at all. Thank for playing.

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You are either stupid, or trolling. I never made any silly assertions about Neuromuscular coordination. I actually know what those words mean. Perhaps you don't?

rekrunner wrote:

What? A sub-2:00:00 marathon discussion? Again?

If we look at past performances, there was 24 years between 2:04 and 2:08, and 20 years between 2:08 and 2:12.

Given this kind of mathematical progression (a good a basis as any for this kind of brown-tinged speculation), a guess of 20-40 years, if seemingly optimistic, doesn't seem too crazy.

Then the one who will do it will be born in about 10 years or so.

This progression may seem too linear, and under-estimate an "exponential decay" model, so one could mathematically argue larger numbers like 50-80 years. I won't here.

You can't project the rate of improvement mathematically, it doesn't work like that. Improvements can just as likely be large as they can be small, and have been so in recent years.

This is a rough but a 1:59 marathoner will have to be capable of the following level of performances.

25:30 for 10K

12:18 for 5K

3:33 for the mile

So when we start to see someone who can run one or more of those times, we can start planning on seeing a sub 2 hour marathon.

What's the best approach to prepare for a 1:59 marathon? Become a 3:33 miler, then move up? Or go straight to the marathon and bring your time down?

I would say that the knowledge gained through the relatively recent revelation in the importance of neuromuscular coordination has changed training. More and more athletes are doing short, very intense repeats in prep for longer events and the results are slowly becoming evident. Solinsky and other Salazar coached runners are an example of this. Alberto does have his athletes do a lot of shorter faster work than many coaches. Even Ritz, after he left Hudson (who's famous for short fast hill work in his own coaching) commented that Alberto had him doing more intense short work.

As for the women's 800 record, you have to look at the big picture and have a long timeline in mind. I would speculate that we are getting closer to the end range than we were 15-20 years ago. But, it could simply be something like more athletes gravitating to the money events like marathon as the women's mnarathon boom happened around the time 800 times stagnated...

ATHiker07 wrote:

I would say that the knowledge gained through the relatively recent revelation in the importance of neuromuscular coordination has changed training. More and more athletes are doing short, very intense repeats in prep for longer events and the results are slowly becoming evident. Solinsky and other Salazar coached runners are an example of this. Alberto does have his athletes do a lot of shorter faster work than many coaches. Even Ritz, after he left Hudson (who's famous for short fast hill work in his own coaching) commented that A.

Are you an idiot? There's nothing new about speedwork. FYI, Ritzenhein only started doing more speedwork because he training for marathons under Hudson.

Are you an idiot? There's nothing new about speedwork. FYI, Ritzenhein only started doing more speedwork because he training for marathons under Hudson.

What I was referring to wasn't traditional speedwork dipstick... maybe your' the idiot.

Umm you really don't think drugs(and maybe gender testing) are the #1 reason the woman's 800m has stagnated.People were recommending short sprints in the 60s/70s. My impression is that ritz is doing more short stuff but it is more along the lines of what guys in the 70s/early 80s where doing rather than something new. But I have only seen a workout here and there. Long fast runs (10 miles @ mp) seem a lot more invoge these days but people were definitely do them in the 70s also.

Lopes was the first to break 2:08 in 1985 and Haile was the first to break 2:04 in 2008. So about 23 years for between those 2 things happening. With the ability of Haile and all of his tremendous leg speed and "gifts", why would one not think in 23 more years we will see a sub 2 hour marathon with someone of his talents? Because there "are" limits!

A 3:33 mile comparison? Come on now. Hicham ran 3:43 11 years ago and no one has come close since. Someone is going to run 2, that's 2, sub 1:47's in a row? If any of us reading this ever see a sub 3:40, I personally would consider it an amazing feat, and I'm in my 30's. But a 3:33? No, not gonna happen and nor is a sub 2 hour marathon in any of our lifetimes.

Dasfasd is quite respectful and has posted some valid points to get one to think, but I just happen to respectfully disagree with his points, that's all. There are some very amazing athletes currently on the marathoning scene who have the amazing gift to take in large volumes of air and get them to the right places rather quickly. But.....I don't see any of them running faster than perhaps a low 2:03 in perfect conditions and I can't imagine how training will change or athletes will be any more gifted 50-60 years from now.

Yobes went under 27 for 10,000 17 years ago and no one has broken 27 since, with Bekele still being 17 and a half seconds short......5 years ago! That's almost 3 seconds a mile more to improve. I don't know if it was his world record race or a world championship race, but he ran one of them and closed with a 4:01 mile (IIRC), what more can a guy do? There are limits and when records like that drop, they don't drop by much whether it's the 5, 10 or even the marathon.

Haile was on the edge when he ran that time and he knew that he had very little to anything left in the tank and admitted there might be 30 more seconds of improvement there, and no more. To say that Bekele will run faster is not even a sure thing. Possible, sure, but he's never run one so at this point it is an unknown. Let's see him run a half and see how well he holds up, then we'll talk.......but a sub 2 hour race, I personally don't believe it.

60 followed by a sub 60? Only Lindgren could pull that off, in his mind that is.

Yobes went under 28 17 years ago.....obviously that's what I meant.

Did you sleep through the 90s when the records dropped more in 4 years than the previous 20? If you asked some in 1970 if they could image a guy lapping Viren or Clarke in a 10k (or running 10k faster than those guys could run 5k) you would have been laughed at. No one thinks Bekele, Haile, or anyone else around today is breaking 2 hours. In 40 years there will be some 26:20 guy that moves up because there are 7 other guys running 26:10. It will turn out he can run the marathon with a Radcliff 10k:marathon ratio and drop a 1:59.Now maybe the 90s+2000s are all about epo and we never find a drug as good. That seems to be what happened to the woman's 400+800.

solinsky is not coached by salad bar

2030, yes

Fastest 5th fastest

10000m.

2006. 26.35 27.03

2007. 26.46 26.49

2008. 26.25 26.57

2009. 26.46 26.59

2010. 26.59 27.11

Half marathon

2006. 58.55 59.29

2007. 58.33 59.16

2008. 59.15 59.29

2009. 58.52 59.09

2010. 58.23 59.39

Marathon

2006. 2.5.56 2.6.44

2007. 2.4.26 2.6.51

2008. 2.3.59 2.5.36

2009. 2.4.27 2.5.18

2010. 2.4.48 2.5.23

I don't see any indication it will be happening anytime soon. 40 years, well I'll be 90 by then so I might not be around.

Thank you....it's not going to happen.

The limits are being pushed and Viren being lapped and it sounding crazy is one thing, but it's not where we are at now. Viren was not Haile and the 70's aren't the 21st century friend. What next, a guy who literally runs a sub 25 10,000 averaging 13 seconds faster per mile than Bekele? Nope.

Right now we are seeing something special in distance running and as I stated, no one has touched his 10k time in almost 5 years. Things will plateau and the records will be harder and harder to come by....unless you're Gerry Lindgren:) Then we will see the coveted 1:45 half marathon run in a sub 50. Again, things will plateau and a sub 2:03 will be hard pressed to happen even under perfect conditions, but of course IS possible. Sub 2 hours..............nope.

Have you guys seen gattaca?

If we alter the human genome of babies being born. We can scientifically create suprior athletes.

no doubt

I think Dean K can do it if he tapers.....then he will have a oly trials qualifying time, no?