Perfect, ready made excuse.
Perfect, ready made excuse.
2:10:31
Ritz was usually better then Hall
i.e., High School , University , the Olympics
Hall ran faster at the a time trial marathon {London}
and came first in the trials
which you shouldn't win if you can help it
Again Ritz is usually better then Hall
The difference is that Hall would go with Wanjiru/Lel and company at WR pace and hang for as long as he could. Ritz is not going out with that pack so he will probably go with the 2:08ish pace group and run 2:08ish. If he has a great day he might run a mid to high 2:07 but he will likely have to do it alone and in no-mans land except for the occasional casualty of the lead pack coming back to him.
I would love to see Ritz go out with the leaders and try to hang on. Sure he might die, but he might also make it to 23miles and then fall apart and still run 2:06. From what I've seen in his interviews leading up to London he isn't planning on doing this.
Hall has great ability obviously, but he seems to be one of the few Americans who has realized that to win a race you need to be up front. The cost of being up front is fading badly and running much slower than you were in shape for, the benefit is that one day everyone else might fade first and you take it. Ritz might have better ability than Hall, but it doesn't matter if he is running in a second pack a mile behind the leaders.
Some coked up Brit wrote:
He's going to get wet and cold - gusts of up to 32 mph!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/london_forecast_weather.html
If this is seriously the case, then time predictions are foolish.
2:11.16
Sagarin wrote:
Some coked up Brit wrote:He's going to get wet and cold - gusts of up to 32 mph!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/london_forecast_weather.htmlIf this is seriously the case, then time predictions are foolish.
lohalloran wrote:
The difference is that Hall would go with Wanjiru/Lel and company at WR pace and hang for as long as he could. Ritz is not going out with that pack so he will probably go with the 2:08ish pace group and run 2:08ish. If he has a great day he might run a mid to high 2:07 but he will likely have to do it alone and in no-mans land except for the occasional casualty of the lead pack coming back to him.
I would love to see Ritz go out with the leaders and try to hang on. Sure he might die, but he might also make it to 23miles and then fall apart and still run 2:06. From what I've seen in his interviews leading up to London he isn't planning on doing this.
Hall has great ability obviously, but he seems to be one of the few Americans who has realized that to win a race you need to be up front. The cost of being up front is fading badly and running much slower than you were in shape for, the benefit is that one day everyone else might fade first and you take it. Ritz might have better ability than Hall, but it doesn't matter if he is running in a second pack a mile behind the leaders.
Hall would not go with Wanjiru. Remember the olympics? He let that front pack go. I hope Ritz doesnt go with that WR pack. I rather see him run a 2:06.
Mr. met wrote:
I hope Ritz doesnt go with that WR pack. I rather see him run a 2:06.
I'm going to steal a line from another thread: "You will see Fabio rocking a crew cut before you see Ritz run 2:06!"
hall wouldn't make that mistake again.
anyway if there are really gusty winds forget my 2:08 prediction.
Any more predictions? Also, does anyone know where and when the race is being broadcasted online?
2:06:58
5th place
2.07.30 for a very solid run.
Solid???????????? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, here's the list of Americans under 2:09:1. 2:05:38 - Khalid Khannouchi - London (2002)2. 2:06:17 - Ryan Hall - London (2008)3. 2:08:47 - Bob Kempainen - Boston (1994)4. 2:08:51 - Alberto Salazar - Boston (1982)5. 2:08:53 - Dick Beardsley - Boston (1982)6. 2:08:56 - Abdi Abdirahman - Chicago (2006)Only two guys have broken 2:08:30. Shorter's PR is 2:10:30. We should not be jaded by African magnificence into thinking of 2:07:30 as anything other than great. And additionally, the weather forecast is shaping up nicely for excellent conditions, at least in terms of temperature--low 50s--and precipitation--20-30%. The wind will be under 10 mph. Let's hope it comes out of the southeast. "And if you want to know just how fast 2:07:30 is, go out to your local high school track and . . . ."
uk runner wrote:
2.07.30 for a very solid run.
2:13:22
From Mary Wittenberg's twitter feed a few minutes ago:
"With Dathan and Meb at dinner. Dathan's first trip to London. Both ready to run. Different weather forecast every five minutes"
2:07:10.
And how does one get to read Mary Wittenberg's twitter feed?
orbitboy wrote:
From Mary Wittenberg's twitter feed a few minutes ago:
"With Dathan and Meb at dinner. Dathan's first trip to London. Both ready to run. Different weather forecast every five minutes"
If the latest forecast holds, it looks like near perfect weather.
From all indications Ritz has been training better than ever and fairly confident in his fitness
hall went with the lead group last year in london but before that he had a year where he started more conservatively and ran 2:08
he needed that first run to give him confidence that he could stay strong over the full marathon distance and enabled him to go out more aggresively...
I think ritzs shape and ability is comparable to halls (nothing in their early careers has indicated otherwise and ritz has shown more prowess over shorter distances) but ritz has never run a full out time trial marathon and I think hell need a more conservative approach and next time...assuming he stays healthy and trains well, weill be able to go out faster, hopefully with the lead group...
I say 2:07 mid-high as he does have more experience with the marathon than hall did...just not this type of marathon
in no way its ritz ready to go through the half on pace to run faster than anyone in history has before...which is what the lead pack is likely to do