FERNANDEZ - 3:55.02 at Big 12

I'm just quoting Daniels' tables. And, frankly, I'm inclined to agree with you--the 5,000m predictions from 3,000m times seem slow to me.

P.S. Please learn the difference between "then" and "than."

Hey, Err.., you dumb dbag, use your head man. I was responding to a guy that said something about if German runs 3:53, then that puts him at 13:25. He said his 3K aligned up with that as well. Clearly that table is not the best indicator. Point is, he can go faster for 3K, and he can go faster for 5K too. Let's be real here, if he was in Rupp's Boston 3K, he would've been right there.

Ritzenhein ran 13:27 as a freshman outdoors (freshman record?). Why would you think GF can barely beat that time? At the same time in their careers, GF is about 5+ seconds faster over a mile, and about 10+ seconds faster in a 3K/2 Mile. Realistically, this guy is very capable of going mid-high 13:teens in the right race.

Hell, maybe not in 'the right race' even. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go 4:20-4:20-4:10, solo, if he needed to.

Thank you haha, YO. Some people apparently have just picked up running.

Have you noticed me twice saying that I suspected the 5,000m predictions on Daniels' tables to be slow? Or that I went to Daniels' tables in the first place because a previous poster had checked the 5,000m equivalent from GF's 7:47, and another said, Well he's probably in low 7:40s condition--look that up it's probably like low 13:1X. So I did, and reported Daniels' table equivalent. And for this I'm a dbag? You guys are class acts all around. Maybe read people's posts before tossing names around.

Oh. Ha. Apparently it was you. Well, sorry for calling you lazy. I still think his 5k potential is between the two tables right now--Daniels' equivalent is too slow and the IAAF is too fast.

You think a 13:22 is too fast? If he gets in a rabitted race at Mt. Sac or Stanford there is no reason why he couldn't go run that time given what he has done this season. He will probably run faster because it is outdoors and he will be in better shape.

The problem with both Germans and Rupps 3K's is they were competetive races where I believe each 1K was faster than the previous. Rupp nearly didn't race as he was recovering from illness and german clearly had come down with something.

The iaaf outdoor tables look at top mark where guys run in rabbited european races where the pace is generally spot on from the beginning.

Both German and Rupp did not hit what they were capable of in terms of PR's in those 3K's so to speculate from those is hard.

Rupp's 5K was at 13:25 pace at 3-4K and then dropped in the last 1200-1600.

All I think we can really say is that they are both faster than what they have already run indoors so far.

No, I think 12:55 is too fast for someone who's run 7:32. 13:22 sounds about right to me for GF--going through 3k in 8:01 and maintaining that pace seems doable for him. The question is, as someone just noted, will he find himself in a race where they're running 64s from the start to maximize the likelihood of running his fastest time possible.And with today's tracks I think the difference between indoor (the 200m banked variety, not the old 160y wood) and outdoor is far less than people suggest it is.

haha, YO wrote:

You think a 13:22 is too fast? If he gets in a rabitted race at Mt. Sac or Stanford there is no reason why he couldn't go run that time given what he has done this season. He will probably run faster because it is outdoors and he will be in better shape.

Bob Kennedy ran 7:30.84 and went 12:58 a few times. Matt Tegenkamp has run 7:34.98 and gone 13:04. Mottram has run 7:32 and (gasp) 12:55. The IAAF guys don't just pull this shit out of their ass, this is based on years and years of data from real life elite athletes. I'm sorry you don't believe it but it's pretty damn accurate.

He's probably near his lifetime peak already. Another bright star who will fizzle out early.[/quote]

Imagine if they had said this about crammy back in 1980 at the Olympics. Too much pessimism nowadays.

haha, YO wrote:

Bob Kennedy ran 7:30.84 and went 12:58 a few times. Matt Tegenkamp has run 7:34.98 and gone 13:04. Mottram has run 7:32 and (gasp) 12:55. The IAAF guys don't just pull this shit out of their ass, this is based on years and years of data from real life elite athletes. I'm sorry you don't believe it but it's pretty damn accurate.

12:45flat=7:25.5=3:27.3 all about the 8th fastest ever

12:50flat=7:28flat=3:28.4 all about the 20th fastest ever

12:55flat=7:31flat=3:30flat all aboutthe 80th fastest ever

13:00flat=7:34.5=3:31.2 all about 216th fastest ever

13:05flat=7:38flat=3:32.5 all about 480th fastest ever

13:10flat=7:41flat=3:33.4 all about 828th fastest ever

13:15flat=7:44flat=3:34.4 all about 1350th fastest ever

13:20flat=7:47flat=3:35.3 all about the 2050th fastest ever

Those are all for outdoor times. Germans solo mile cracks the indoor mile list top 65. Indoors is typically worth about 3-5seconds/mile-the 800 is 1.5 seconds slower, the 1500 is 5 seconds slower, the mile is 5 seconds slower, the 3000 is 5 seconds slower and the 5000 is about 12 second slower. So indoors is worth about 3 seconds per mile minimum-I consider the 800 and 3000 world records just about on par with the outdoor records. German could definitely be around the 13:10 bar given his times thus far and rate of improvement.

first, I am a German fan, but not a bandwagoner (I am pretty much a fan of all running). And second I am more so a Brent Vaughn as I watched this young man develope since his soph yr of hs when he first started.

so Vaughn ran 13:18 this year, at stanford. Compare his mile and 3k Pr's to fernandez's. As much as I want to be "realistic" and say be okay with a 13:25 AJR, 13:teens may indeed be doable

statesticians are cool wrote:

12:45flat=7:25.5=3:27.3 all about the 8th fastest ever

12:50flat=7:28flat=3:28.4 all about the 20th fastest ever

12:55flat=7:31flat=3:30flat all aboutthe 80th fastest ever

13:00flat=7:34.5=3:31.2 all about 216th fastest ever

13:05flat=7:38flat=3:32.5 all about 480th fastest ever

13:10flat=7:41flat=3:33.4 all about 828th fastest ever

13:15flat=7:44flat=3:34.4 all about 1350th fastest ever

13:20flat=7:47flat=3:35.3 all about the 2050th fastest ever

Where did you find these?

J.R. wrote:

statesticians are cool wrote:

12:45flat=7:25.5=3:27.3 all about the 8th fastest ever

12:50flat=7:28flat=3:28.4 all about the 20th fastest ever

12:55flat=7:31flat=3:30flat all aboutthe 80th fastest ever

13:00flat=7:34.5=3:31.2 all about 216th fastest ever

13:05flat=7:38flat=3:32.5 all about 480th fastest ever

13:10flat=7:41flat=3:33.4 all about 828th fastest ever

13:15flat=7:44flat=3:34.4 all about 1350th fastest ever

13:20flat=7:47flat=3:35.3 all about the 2050th fastest ever

Where did you find these?

...

And with today's tracks I think the difference between indoor (the 200m banked variety, not the old 160y wood) and outdoor is far less than people suggest it is.

Note that most of the top marks are set on the 300m+ tracks, which implies that the 220banked ovals are slower by two (possibly modest) steps: 200mi -> 300mi -> 400 outdoor

haha, YO wrote:

Bob Kennedy ran 7:30.84 and went 12:58 a few times. Matt Tegenkamp has run 7:34.98 and gone 13:04. Mottram has run 7:32 and (gasp) 12:55. The IAAF guys don't just pull this shit out of their ass, this is based on years and years of data from real life elite athletes. I'm sorry you don't believe it but it's pretty damn accurate.

This is true. But these marks are made by guys far into their running careers with a lot of good attempts at these destances in Europe. Bob Kennedy has 2 marks under 13:00, but if you look at his top 10 performances he more often ran around 13:05.

So with someone improving as fast as German it doesn't really work to use these tables. The tables are great for guys who have been at the top of their game for several years. Guys who p.r. once every year or two or possibly not for 3 or 4 years because they are near the top of their capabilities.

Doesn't work that way for Rupp and certainly doesn't work that way for German. Guys like this are improving too rapidly.

Glad to see so many people excited by Germain's recent performances. Yes, this guy's potential is stupendous. But, BY FAR, the most important thing for this season and next season is to stringently limit this guy's training in order to keep him healthy and build for the long-haul.

He has a long history of injury, including during most of his high school running career. The man who coached him during his senior year (NOT his high school coach), realized Germain was a unique thoroughbred who was also highly susceptible to injury. This coach intentionally backed-off on his training (basically following J. Daniel's Running Formula but with NO speed workouts), and Germain stayed relatively healthy, and started breaking records.

This means Germain DOES NOT have the years of base training of even decent high school runners. Combine that with his known history of injury. His long-term interest would require that this unique talent be brought along VERY slowly and patiently (as has been necessary for Andrew Wheating, who started running only at 17).

Otherwise, there is a high risk of Germain's stupendous potential being ruined by a parade of injuries.

I just hope he has wise handlers. And over the next 18 months, his race times and race accomplishments are relatively unimportant.

Is German Fernandez update?

neanderthal dream wrote:

Is German Fernandez update?

No, no... no, no, no... no he is not... not update at all.