NCAA DIV 1 X COUNTRY PREDICTIONS

Iona

oregon

wisconsin

colorado

Utep

Iona will easily put 4 in the top 20-25

Shadrack Songok A&M for the win - SERIOUSLY

here's what I see...

1. Withrow. he's finally not coming off of an injury

2. McDougal

3. Vaughn

4. Eagon

5. Lomong

6. Rupp

one of those 6 won't be there.

teams

1. Iona

2. Colorado

3. Wisco

4. Oregon

5. NAU

6. Stanford

7. Arkansas

8. OK State

9. UTEP

10. Louisville

UTEP bombs again. I'd bet that at least 9 of these teams are in the top 10 at nationals, but I doubt the order's right.

Lomong's going to win. That's the only prediction I'm going to make

Even though Arkansas only has 5, their 5 can run with anyone in the country.

Forrest 13:48i

MacPherson 13:49i

Hill 14:02i

Barnicle 14:02

Munoz 14:03

I think Georgetown will beat Louisville. In a more crowded race, Louisville's 5th will hurt them more, plus Georgetown's 4th man dropped out at Big East after the 4 mile. That could make the difference at Nats.

1)Rupp

2)Withrow

3)Lamong

4)Kiptoo-Biwot

5)McDougal

6)Eagon

1)Oregon

2)Colorado

3)Wisconsin

4)Iona

5)NAU

6)Stanford

There is no doubt or reason (pending illness) that these top 5 will be running for the win the entire way until they just start to fall off.

Rupp can win it if he runs within himself and throws in a move or two like he did at Stanford 10K. I know Rupp may seem a better track than cross runner, but his improvement last spring was so huge it suggests that he is also another level up in his cross country running. He's only raced once so far and was not trying to kill it so this is based more on speculation than results this season. Kiptoo-Biwot is a darkhorse for the win, but if he's still in it coming into the last half mile I would say he becomes one of the favorites, along with Lamong if he's still around. Withrow by all means will be running for that win, but he will need something special to shake all of these guys. McDougal may try to throw something down in the middle (and will need to if he wants a chance to win) but history suggests it won't work for him. Eagon is probably just not fit enough to beat this classy field.

In terms of teams, if either of the both of the Mercados come back around by nationals I think Oregon will be murdering people. And even if the twins don't, Oregon is in it for the win. Because of Colorado's history and the chance that this course could be muddy / sloppy I see them slipping up through that field and having enough guys in the top 25% of the field to get second. Although I think Wisconsin could run out of their heads and win it, it is likely that they are just a little too you and lacking in depth to get Oregon or hold off Colorado in the last 1/3rd.

I see Oregon and Colorado running in groups which will help them a lot, and most other teams getting lost in the madness that is the show.

teams

1) Iona

2) Oregon

3) Colorado

4) Wisconsin

5) NAU

individuals

1) Rupp

2) Withrow

3) Lemong

4) Kiptoo

5) Mcdougal

I think that Wisconsin might put up numbers like:

Withrow 13:25

Eagon 13:30

Bethke 13:50

Lacy 13:55-14:00

Peacock 14:00

Wagner 14:00 (depending on foot)

Bolas 14:05

Miller 14:10

If this is at all accurate, I do not think that they match up well at all 1/2/5/6/8 vs 3/4/7/9/10 => 22/33 and the tail end is 1) not deep (Wisconsin goes pretty solid through 7 or 8) and the ones at the end are going to score high points.

There are too many good teams like UTEP, NAU, Oregon, and Colorado for Arkansas to get into the top two or three. Even Wisconsin is going to have a fight to get on to the podium and they have not gone lower than #2 in quite a while.

26mi235 wrote:

I think that Wisconsin might put up numbers like:

Withrow 13:25

Eagon 13:30

Bethke 13:50

Lacy 13:55-14:00

Peacock 14:00

Wagner 14:00 (depending on foot)

Bolas 14:05

Miller 14:10

If this is at all accurate, I do not think that they match up well at all 1/2/5/6/8 vs 3/4/7/9/10 => 22/33 and the tail end is 1) not deep (Wisconsin goes pretty solid through 7 or 8) and the ones at the end are going to score high points.

There are too many good teams like UTEP, NAU, Oregon, and Colorado for Arkansas to get into the top two or three. Even Wisconsin is going to have a fight to get on to the podium and they have not gone lower than #2 in quite a while.

Any team that has two guys who could finish top 5 individually AND has any amount of depth behind it has to be considered a factor. Oregon and Wisconsin both have this. Iona has a solid group, but their top man was 8th in the blue race at pre-nationals.

Kiptoo and Withrow both controlled Alabamas Bor, who finished 22 seconds ahead of Iona's top man and placed 3rd in that pre-nat. race. Bor was also the SEC champ. Just something to consider. Eagan and Rupp did not race at the Dellinger invite against Bor but they certainly top 10 national guys.

Here are some interesting results to look at:

Pre-Nationals Blue Race

Team Scores Pl. Team Pts. Rnk1. Northern Arizona 124 152. Iona College 136 43. California 157 NR4. Virginia 203 295. Alabama 207 8

1. Lopez Lomong Northern Arizona 23:02.32. Robert Curtis Villanova 23:09.43. Emmanuel Bor Alabama 23:18.84. Jeremy Johnson New Mexico 23:26.15. Wesley Korir Louisville 23:28.36. David McNeill Northern Arizona 23:28.67. Siomo Kiplagat Louisville 23:30.68. Abraham Ng'etich Iona College 23:30.89. David Kinsella Portland 23:32.610. Edwin Henshaw Tulsa 23:33.811. Andrew Ledwith Iona College 23:34.612. Augustus Maiyo Alabama 23:35.113. Mohamed Khadraoui Iona College 23:36.014. Matt Clark Clemson 23:36.215. Austin Ramos UCLA 23:38.116. David Torrence California 23:38.917. Michael Coe California 23:39.118. Harbert Okuti Iona College 23:39.519. Kiel Uhl Iowa State 23:39.520. Mark Korir Wyoming 23:40.1

Dellinger Invite:

1. Oregon

2 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott, Oregon 23:24

9 Carlos Trujillo, Oregon 23:46

12 Kenny Klotz, Oregon 23:49

15 Danny Mercado, Oregon 23:53

16 Diego Mercado, Oregon 23:53

26 A J. Acosta, Oregon 24:01

29 Scott Wall, Oregon 24:02

Time = 1:58:43 Places = 54

2. Wisconsin

1 Matt Withrow, Wisconsin 23:20

11 Andrew Lacy, Wisconsin 23:48

14 Brandon Bethke, Wisconsin 23:52

23 Craig Miller, Wisconsin 23:59

24 Christian Wagner, Wisconsin 23:59

32 Landon Peacock, Wisconsin 24:04

43 Ryan Gasper, Wisconsin 24:20

Time = 1:58:56 Places = 73

3. Alabama

3 Emmanuel Bor, Alabama 23:26

4 Augustus Maiyo, Alabama 23:30

17 Andrew Kirwa, Alabama 23:54

25 Abraham Kutingala, Alabama 23:59

62 Titus Koeh, Alabama 24:43

95 Paul Guevara, Alabama 25:48

Time = 1:59:30 Places = 111

PLACE PLACE FINISHER TIME

1 Matt Withrow, Wisconsin 23:20

2 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott, Oregon 23:24

3 Emmanuel Bor, Alabama 23:26

4 Augustus Maiyo, Alabama 23:30

5 Austin Ramos, Ucla 23:37

6 Jeremy Johnson, New Mexico 23:39

7 Stephen Samoei, Utep 23:42

8 John Moore, Portland 23:45

9 Carlos Trujillo, Oregon 23:46

10 David Kinsella, Portland 23:47

11 Andrew Lacy, Wisconsin 23:48

12 Kenny Klotz, Oregon 23:49

13 Troy Swier, Cal Poly 23:51

14 Brandon Bethke, Wisconsin 23:52

15 Danny Mercado, Oregon 23:53

16 Diego Mercado, Oregon 23:53

17 Andrew Kirwa, Alabama 23:54

18 Michael Kilburg, Portland 23:54

19 Jeremy Freed, Colorado St. 23:55

20 Mat Ashton, New Mexico 23:57

21 Kelly Spady, Washington 23:57

22 Laef Barnes, Ucla 23:58

23 Craig Miller, Wisconsin 23:59

24 Christian Wagner, Wisconsin 23:59

25 Abraham Kutingala, Alabama 23:59

26 A J. Acosta, Oregon 24:01

27 Jon Harding, Washington 24:01

28 Nicodemus Ng'etich, Utep 24:01

29 Scott Wall, Oregon 24:02

30 Patrick Mutai, Utep 24:02

If Wisconsin and Oregon have their top to runners totallying 10-15 points and Iona's top to guys total 30-40 they have a lot of work to make up. I agree that Iona is a very good team, but I don't think their top two even compare to Wisco and Oregons top two, and I'm not sure that from 3rd man down they can even match up. Which makes me wonder why so many people are picking them to win.

J.C.

Nice post JC. I do not think that there is much difference at all across Wisconsin's 3/4/5/6/7 runners (although the difference might grow at 10k). If Iona's #3 is not better than Wisconsin's #3, then 4/5/6 are not going to make up any gap at all. At Big Tens Wisconsin had a 29 second gap, most of it in 1/2 to 3. Also, Oregon and Wisconsin both have little to lose between 3 and 7 and hence are more protected form the inevitable off-race for one of their projected scorers. This will matter more if the conditions are sloppy.

The individual field as one might expect is shaping up as somewhat of a rerun of '03 Footlocker (with 5th year seniors Nef and Bobby C. thrown in for good measure) along with an interesting mix of African collegians. Bottom line: this shapes up (just like '03 Footlocker) as one of those epic showdowns (that only come along every few years) for both the individual and team results. Weather and course variables will play a huge roll. Just like no one expected Withrow to win '03 Footlocker, look for a darkhorse to emerge through all the favorites and take the individual title!

I don't think Withrow was so much of a dark horse back in '03 when he won FL. After he murdered the Midwest field including Deak (who was good back than)people had to be looking at him as at least a top 4 guy with his kick.

A dark horse could win it but I feel with so many top known names that one of them such as Lomong, McDougal, Rupp, Vaughn, Kiptoo or someone else has to win it.

Glad to see someone finally mentioned Shadrack Songkok, TxAM-CC, as top individual. He is ncaa 10k track champ, won Chile Pepper 10k, and will have an easy regional.

I still think Rupp will win (unless he holds back to pace Kiptoo-Biwott) like he did at Pac10.

I think someone mentioned it above but I think that Iona finally have the talent to take the top spot.

They had 4 guys right up there at Pre Nats and with Matthew Kiplagat back it would have been 5.

Recently the Iona guys have tended to improve their position from Pre NC's to Nats so if they all do that this time they could have 5 guys in the top 30. Not sure if they will have the low scorers in teh top 10 needed to win but we'll see.

coachkritter wrote:

Glad to see someone finally mentioned Shadrack Songkok, TxAM-CC, as top individual. He is ncaa 10k track champ, won Chile Pepper 10k, and will have an easy regional.

I still think Rupp will win (unless he holds back to pace Kiptoo-Biwott) like he did at Pac10.

He also has the advantage that he can throw caution to the wind as he has no real team complications to worry about. McDougall might be in that same boat.

Team

1. Oregon

2. Colorado

3. Wisconsin

4. NAU

5. Arkansas

Indiv.

1. Withrom

2. Shadrack

3. Lomong

4. Rupp

5. McDougal

The only way Rupp will win is if he chokes Withrow with his Breathe Right stip.

The_Big_Mazungo wrote:

Team

1. Oregon

2. Colorado

3. Wisconsin

4. NAU

5. Arkansas

Indiv.

1. Withrom

2. Shadrack

3. Lomong

4. Rupp

5. McDougal

The only way Rupp will win is if he chokes Withrow with his Breathe Right stip.

Man! You need to learn. There is a guy with 1:46 speed... that will dominate. His name is Lomong. No way does anyone touch him!

Yes, Shadrack Songok might put these guys in their place. He may be the most under-rated runner in the field, assuming he makes it to nationals, but he should be as much of as shoe-in as anyone. Just look at what he did to Naimadu and the rest of field at Chile Pepper:

1 Shadrack Songok 29:22.1

2 Nicodemus Naimadu 29:34.9

3 Elkanah Kibet 29:36.1

4 Julius Bor 29:40.8

5 Shawn Forrest 29:44.5

Don't forget he outkicked Rupp at NCAA outdoors in the 10k as well. Nothin' like the outdoor and the cross title to solidify yourself as a great future prospect.

As a matter of fact, I should revise my predictions now that I think about it:

1. Songok

2. McDougal

3. Lomong

4. Withrow

5. J. Korir

6. Rupp

7. Vaughn

8. Curtis

9. Kiptoo-Biwott

10. Bor