TYD wrote:
...im pretty sure most of us dont agree with you.
If a sole criterion were established for assuming that an argument made here is legitimate, this would be it.
Chances are pretty good that if you're hounded by the usual gang of half-literate, shoot-from-the-hip, emotion-over-reason ape-people for posting something, you probably nailed it.
Keith is at least basing his disupting Avocado's assertions on something tangible. The rest of you appear to be fans or friends of the unfortunate subject of the thread who, on that basis or owing to inherent factors, cannot or will not do simple math. There is probably also the usual smattering of ultrarunners who perceive anything coming from outside the ultramarathon crowd as both unfounded and harsh.
Avocado is right. Road 50Ks don't come around nearly as often as marathons do, so the claim that someone could probably run X given her time at Y by definition becomes that much more of a hypothetical exercise than saying someone could run such-and-such a marathon based on this or that 10-mile time. You can look at the marathon times of the top American women 50K (like Dana Parrot and Nikki Kimball) if you need hard data, and I assure you these data support exactly the premise Avocado posits. Additionally, Alex Tilson is one decent American male I know of who gave 50K a serious crack, and he ran 2:51:47 with a marathon PR of 2:22:45. I know of few others who ran 50Ks at the time they were still fast at the marathon, but know that some pretty ordinary marathoners, men and women, have moved up and pretty much toyed with some everyday 50K fields. Big deal. There's no real incentive for good runners to make a habit of running 50Ks.
People realy need to understand that it is not a criticism to note that someone is not world-class and never will be, any more than it is pessimistic to point out that we're all going to be dead soon. Avocado may have his own detached admiration for someone who runs 25 miles a day for any reason, but this is distinct from his evaluation of such a person's abilities. And even if he doesn't, this doesn't detract from her efforts. Ironically, it's the blind loudmouths here who are coloring these.