Why can't Ritz run sub 13?

the real question should be, when is ritz going to run sub 12:30?

i mean, that should be no problem, right?

cause ritz is DA MAN. YEAH!

There are lots of reasons I believe Ritzenhein to have more talent than most of the people mentioned, and lots of reasons I believe he will break 13:00 while I don't think Tegenkamp will or even Goucher will. Certainly Ritz is more talented than Tegenkamp or Hall or Dobson or even Broe (who's better than the others just mentioned).

Here are some reasons why.

1) Even though injured a lot the last few years, Ritz comes back and performs at a very high level, sometimes at an insanely high level based on the training he's been allowed. He really had no business winning that NCAA CC meet a few years ago, but I knew he would and said so at the time. Outkicking Hall at the end was just gravy. He runs a 13:25 as a "rust buster". I believe it was a rust buster too, becasue not too long after than he runs 13:16 in a non-perfect race. He's nowhere near his peak fitness level, and he's still got several years of improvement in him.

2) Once Ritz enters a new level, he pretty much never goes backward. Hall runs 13:16 and then recently ran in the 13:40s (in a race he was destroyed by Ritz by the way). Tegenkamp doesn't race often enough, and the same is true for Goucher and Broe.

3) Ritz has better victories than Hall or Dobson or Tegenkamp. There's just something about that guy that makes him a winner. Sometimes it's the intangibles.

No way Jose wrote:

BTW, does anyone else think running NYC is the dumbest move Ritz could have evere made? It's almost like he wants to do everything he can to screw himself over. I don't understand it.

Read Peter Snell's interview in "Bannister and Beyond." He mentions his marathon before the 1960 Olympics where he won the 800m.

Murray Halberg was a sub-4 miler and ran a good marathon before his 1960 Olympic 5000m victory, too.

Even this year, Gabe Jennings ran a good marathon (an OT qualifier, right?) before his performance at USATFs.

No, I don't think that racing a marathon is a bad idea for Ritz. Best of luck to him.

I think Goucher has more potential than Ritz to break 13. Hall will most likely never do it. Honestly, what has Hall done since USATF XC. In my opinion, which I know does not matter, Hall ought to call it a day in the 5,000 and go up to the 10,000. He proved that he can handle a longer race in the 12k in XC.

Ritz may run sub 13, but I think he would probably rather have the AR in the 10,000. I honestly would rather see Ritz as the first sub 27 American than the 3rd sub 13 guy. Either way, I think he has the potential to go sub 13 in the next two years if he focuses on it. I also believe that this summer we will see Goucher go sub 13, probably Lagat again, and maybe Teg.

You can't say, "I knew when Ritz . . . that he would eventually break 13:00. You could only say that if he had already broken 13:00. What you want to say is, "I first came to believe . . . ."

The people on this board seem to love to banter about with Sub-13, Sub-2:08, Sub-27 for Ritz. Does anyone on here know how fast those times are? A 13:30 person loses by half a lap to a sub-13 guy. Half a lap. People on this site almost never show the respect that these times deserve. White men don't run these times without pharmalogical help or they're talented guys who are very smart and their body is tough as nails. Even that isn't enough most of the time.

With Ritz, you've got a guy with below average speed and really bad injury problems. Ritz's potential is less than Webb's in the 5K and I think Webb will have to train perfectly for a few years in a row to grab 12:59.9. And Ritz isn't THAT much better than Meb, I don't think there is much of a chance that Ritz will retire with better PB's than Meb in the marathon or 10K. Ritz is Alan Culpepper v2.0 and there's nothing wrong with that.

Ritz will retire with PB's in the range of 13:11, 27:25 and 2:09:30. (I'll give the lead-pipe-lock that he'll never get under 13:06, 27:08 and 2:08:20, those times are out of his reach without "help".)

I agree with everything you said Silverback, although I think possibly Ritz could go sub2:09 but that's a big if being that he's never run a marathon before, but when people throw around times like sub13 and him running sub2:07 it seems crazy.

After reading through this thread, the only sane conclusion one can draw is that Flagpole Willy is a conceited know-nothing.

I just await the day that Ritzenhien hops on these boards, and informs Willy where he can put that Pole of his

Ritzenhein

Broe has shown more talent than Ritz. Broe actually has an American record in something and he's had a lot more impressive performances than Ritz despite being on the shelf for a great deal of time. It seems over the past few years he is able to win the 5000m at usatfs just off his talent.

Talent, of course, is not quantifiable. It's just a word people throw out there. What you mean by "talent" is "I hope". You hope he runs well and you use the talent excuse as a reason when it's based on jack shit. As I and others have shown if you think Ritz will break 13 then you ought to think about a half dozen other guys will too. The difference is not "talent", the difference is you "hope" he will, and it's not based on anything concrete at all, despite whatever you say.

Flagpole, here is what I think.

IF Ritz could stay healthy and IF he focused on the 5k, I believe he has the TALENT, as you say, to run low 12:50s. I believe if he focused on speed work for a few years he could be as fast as Goucher... 1:50low, 3:36, 7:33'ish, 12:52-3, 26:45-50. BUT, he won't run ANY of these times unless he hooks up with guys like Bekele, Kipchoge, Songok, etc and does the necessary sprint training and mile/3k race pace training. BK was soo good because he would do things like miles, 1200s, 1000s, and 800s in training all at a pace that was faster than 4:00 mile pace! Bekele and Geb are/were so good because they do an insance amount of sprint training in addition to their threshold work. If Ritz never does this type of HARD work, while staying healthy, he will not break through the 13:00 barrier. He could, though, based on his TALENT.

As an fyi... trained CORRECTLY, and with some luck/the biomechanics to remain healthy, I believe we have quite a few people who have the POTENTIAL and TALENT to break 13:00.

Goucher

Ritz

Webb

Bernie

Broe

Teg

Dobson

Hall

Solinksy

And probably several others who can't even imagine it.

I only think Webb and Bernie will definitely do it and possibly Goucher.

BTW, everyone should look at the pre 2-mile results and then look at some Euro results. You'll see how good guys like Goucher, Lincoln and Teg really are if they can get their head into it in Europe.

Untrue. Ian Dobson will NOT break 13 minutes. Doubtful that Hall or Goucher or Broe or anyone (current US guys who haven't yet) other than Ritz or Webb will either.

The arguments made against Ritz are contrary to other arguments made as to why Kennedy supposedly had more talent than Ritz even in high school.

Example time:

What is said all the time here is that Kennedy ran 60 MPW max in high school while Ritz ran 90-100. The theory is that this proves Kennedy was more talented then. If that's true, then the same rationale MUST be afforded Ritz when coming back from injury. When coming back from injury, a person can't be near full potential, and even so, Ritz has trounced Hall, Dobson, Torres, etc.

To look only at current 5,000 times and say that anyone within reach of Ritz will break 13:00 is silly. What the hell has Ian Dobson ever won? Ritz is a HUGE winner compared to him. I can't believe some of you put Dobson into the same category as Ritz. Dobson is a fine runner. He ran 13:15, so he has a faster PR RIGHT NOW than Ritz. Good for him. He ain't Ritz though, and the thing is that even he knows that. Sorry that too many of you can only look at current times to predict what a runner will run.

"I see that Ritz has run 13:16. That means he's capable of 13:16, and I won't entertain anything else until he runs faster than that." Ok then.

The biggest I told you so in the history of Letsrun is coming when Ritz breaks 13:00.

He's not just some highschool phenom who has fallen since. He's arguably one of the best US high school runners ever who has continued to get better and better.

Sub 13:00 is a comin'.

You're right about one thing, Bernard Lagat does have the "potential and talent" to break 13:00 seeing has how he already has.

You know what your whole group has in common, Lagat excluded? None of those guys have ran faster than 13:10. People act like Sub-13 is something that almost all our top guys are on the cusp of. It's not. They aren't that good and will never be that good. I can count on one hand the number of guys that have a better than 1 in 500,000 shot at sub-13. Lagat (obviously), Webb, Broe and Goucher. And including Broe and Goucher is being very, very generous. You people have no respect for the accomplishment that sub-13 is.

By the way, our guys get whipped in Europe because they're not good enough. It has nothing to do with their mindset during the race, it has to do with their mindset during training and genetics. A 13:15 runner in a race where 3rd is 12:58 isn't missing out on a medal because he "can't get his head into it."

Has there ever been anyone in the history of letsrun who could babble on like FW? I know for the most part this is a little game for you, baiting people with the hyper Ritz talk. But, dang, you are so full of crap and hot air it is almost unbelievable.

i like how FW speaks with such certainty that Ritz will break 13. Just like he was so certain that there was no way Webb could take Ritz down in a 10k.

I also wonder what FW will say when Ritz focused more on the marathon and abandons the 5000. Will he keep saying "well he COULD have broken 13 if he wanted to, I am certain about it" as if anyone can prove that.

What amazes me is this guy actually has children and is over 40.

To throw in some comment on the sub 13 thing.

The seconds down from 13.10 are extremely tough. Trust me. It is relatively "easy" to get down to around 13.10-11, but it is from there on the "trouble" starts - or at least it seems for us mzungos. Not impossible, but somethings else than clipping sec down from 13.30 to 10.

Bob Kennedy was an extreme talent. And if you look at his 1500 meters, he did 3.38 several times but was never in a 1500 meter race while in top shape. With his 7.30 I would guess him at around 3.35flat if raced that day.

As for Americans, there is (in my mind) absolutely no doubt that Alan Webb is the one closest out there. In Berlin when he did 13.10 he passed the 3k in 7.45-46 before going at a very slow lap right thereafter. If he, that day, had gone pass the 3k at 7.51-52 ; done an ok 4th km before finishing with his 1500 m speed at 2.28+/- (he ran that speed out of himself in the first part, takes away his 1500 advantage in the 5k) I would guess 13.02-03 in Berlin. The second on the list (but not close to Webb) with a hope of a sub 13 would have to be Adam Goucher. 7.36, plus good milespeed and many races around 13.10-15. But again, it is far down from there to sub 13. Remember, it took the talent of Said Aouita to break 13.

Just my thoughts.

Marius

LOST wrote:

i like how FW speaks with such certainty that Ritz will break 13. Just like he was so certain that there was no way Webb could take Ritz down in a 10k.

I also wonder what FW will say when Ritz focused more on the marathon and abandons the 5000. Will he keep saying "well he COULD have broken 13 if he wanted to, I am certain about it" as if anyone can prove that.

What amazes me is this guy actually has children and is over 40.

1) I've long said that Ritz will not break 13:00 if he focuses on the marathon. That's a fair statement. He can't break 13:00 if he doesn't run it now can he?

2) I'm not over 40.

3) Regarding Webb, yeah I was wrong there, but so what? All Webb did there was prove how much better he was at 10,000 than I thought he was. It did not diminish the greatness that is Ritz. I get one wrong now and then, and I always own up to it. So what if I'm wrong? Will the world come to an end? Not my world. What does Webb beating Ritz in a 10,000 have to do with Ritz eventually breaking 13:00 anyway?

4) You "like" (meaning you are bothered by) my certainty that Ritz will break 13:00, and yet you are are certain he will not. What makes your certainty right or at least not worthy of being considered bothersome? The fact that you are bothered by an opinion of mine regarding a runner says more about you than it does about me. So you disagree with me. Fine. To get "bothered" by it is odd.

1. First off, you only started saying that when some initital posters wrote that sub13 would be possible if he didn't focus on the marathon. You went back and qualifed your statement further. Inititally you were saying that regardless of marathon he could break it. Pick a point and stick with it.

2. I could care less.

3. It is a big deal. I am just showing obstinate you can get about someone's performance. You are the only one on these boards who consistently makes predictions as if you can see the future. I am just hoping you realize that you can't. Once again, this has nothing to do with Ritz in sub13 shape, it just has to do with your arrogance.

4. FW brush up on your reading comprehension skills. Maybe your wife can help you out on that. I NEVER said that it was certain Ritz would not. I just said you can't say with 100% certainty what someone will do in the next ten years. You on the other hand feel this is totally appropriate, which is pretty ridiculous.

Finally, I still am bringing you to task on this whole "talent" business. it's four or five pages into it and you still will not (or cannot) define why Ritz has more talent than anyone else, or why this makes a big difference. Define talent. And just a little reminder, there have been a LOT of talented people that never fully blossomed on the world scene - such as Lindgren - lot of potential, lot of talent, but never went all the way with his career. That is why predictions such as yours are always dangerous.

As for me. DO I believe Ritz has a shot at sub13? Sure. He is young and if he gets a few years of consistent health it's doable. But not a certainty for the reasons that others, (and most eloquently put, Marrius) posted before. But if you think Ritz can do it, we have a whole other crop of young guys that are running a little faster than Broe or BK did at the same age, and having a lot more national competition to make things more cometitive just in the country, so I feel Hall and Dobson, SOlinksy, etc etc has just a good a shot as Ritz does (or maybe very close). But I am not sayign it is certain they will get it. The cards are lined up for all these 21-24 yr old guys we have running sub 13:20 right now to get it in the next 8 years.