So… for how long will Joshua’s 5000/1000 WR stand?

When Aregawi ran 12:40 in Lausanne, I recall that he led most of the last two kilometers, although he had Cheptegei on his heels to push him. I think out of all of the current crop of athletes, he has the best chance at the 5,000m WR, considering the historical trend of 5,000m records being set by men who were 10,000m specialists, with the exception of Daniel Komen, although he never ran a 10,000m in his prime for one reason or another so there is no data there.

He has a very good shot at it. Maybe not at worlds but definitely in the next few years.

Aregawi did do that, and he also closed in 55 the last lap despite having to lead the last 2k. 12:35 with the same setup as Cheptegei was probably feasible that day.

Kejelcha and Kiplimo were also close at one point, that same season they both ran 12:41 in Oslo closing the last 2k in 4:54.

Gebriwhet was likely in 12:33 shape when he ran 12:36 behind Kejelcha closing in 54, but given his age and recent form, doubt he ever gets back to that fitness again.

It's a shame we've never managed to get ALL of the best 5000m runners in one race at their very peak fitness with perfect pacing.

Happy to read there are others out there besides myself who believe Cheptegei's 5000 WR is not some Beamonesque performance which will last for generations.

Joshua broke Bekele's record by only 1.99 seconds, just a 0.26% improvement. And has been approached by two runners since, both under 12:40.

Probably because Kenenisa is considered the world's all-time greatest distance runner, as well as his record having lasted 16 years, is why most self-appointed distance experts cannot accept that Joshua's time is not some transcendent mark of Biblical proportion unobtainable by anyone running today.

Men's 5000 track racing has exploded the past 2 years.

Here are the numbers for sub-13 performers since "super spikes" were introduced (per WA top lists):

2019: 10 (0 under 12:50)

2020: 8 (4 under 12:50)

2021: 15 (2 under 12:50)

2022: 15 ( 3 under 12:50)

2023: 18 (8 under 12:50)

2024: 31 (8 under 12:50)

2025: 38 (12 under 12:50)

2026: 5 (thru May)

With so many being so fast, expecting more than 12 under 12:50 who likely will push a few under 12:40.

Who then might push someone under 12:35 for a new WR.

Not likely . . . but the numbers are trending in that direction.

Another "who may have the edge" factor heading into the Oslo 5000 involves the Stockholm 1500 just 3 days earlier.

In that race, Almgren and Young will be racing. Will this race give these two any advantage at all heading into Oslo? If they run really fast . . . say, 3:33 or under . . . would this give them a mental confidence boost the others who haven't raced in awhile may not have?

Similar to the recently completed Sound Running LA Track Fest, distance runners Abdilaahi, Gressier, Almgren, Young vs the rest of the field of true milers in Stockholm will be the race-within-the-race.

Just wanted to re-emphasize the Graham Blanks thread started today (6/2).

Sure appears he's expecting to run 61.0/lap (12:42.5/5000) . . . or faster:

8 days and counting . . .

Kejelcha could possibly break both records if he trained specifically for them.

He tried, last year & years past . . . and was not close.

At last year's Paris DL 5000, the pace was 2:32/kilo through 3000 in 7:36 which yields a 12:40. Yomif actually was slightly faster at 4000 in 10:07.36 . . . and then blew up real bad the last couple laps, just holding on FTW in 12:47.84.

When he set his 12:38.95 or at the 2024 Olso DL meet, he finished second to Gebrhiwet's 12:36.73. That race went out much slow than the above-mentioned Paris race, splitting 7:41 thru 3000 with Yomif in the lead at 10:11 thru 4000. His fantastic 2:27 final kilo still left him more than 3 secs off the WR . . . and in 2nd place.

Yomif's 2nd best time was 12:41.73 from the 2023 Oslo DL meet.

He had raced a 5000 at least once/year since 2014 when he burst onto the world scene, winning the U20 WCs in Eugene in 13:25.

Similar in the 10,000, with several sub-27 performances but with a 26:31.01 pr nowhere near Joshua's WR.

Despite being a fan favorite with many bestowing on him God-like powers since his recent sub-2 marathon debut, Yomif simply did not have the ability to break a Joshua record, coming reasonably close only one time.

However, seeing all these fast Oslo 5000 times from recent years should leave everyone even more excited for this year's race next week.

In that 2024 race where Gebrhiwet & Kejelcha had the races of their lives, 5 guys broke 12:50. None are running next week. However, 7th place Lobalu & 8th place Almgren are.

In 2025, 9 guys broke 12:50 -- and none were named Berihu or Grant who sit 7th & 11th, respectively, on the a-t list with their 12:40.45 & 12:44.09 prs.

11 guys w/prs under 12:50 are on the Oslo entry press release from two weeks ago.

If just one of them has the perfect day like Gebrhiwet & Kejelcha had in 2024, then yeah, I believe Joshua's 12:35.36 can be broken.

New 12:56.80 world lead just set today at the Paavo Nurmi Games/Finland by unknown-to-most Florian Bremm. Prior pr was 13:09.17 last year in Belgium. Still in his mid-20s in so large jumps in fitness not unexpected.

Newly minted sub-8 steepler Frederik Ruppert 2nd in 12:57.61. Prior pr was a 13:21 roadie last year. Just turned 29 yet still making massive leaps in performance.

3rd place finisher Egide Ntakarutimana/Burundi in 12:59.45. His prior pr was 13:93.61 dating back to 2023. Turns 29 in October.

Temps were around 70 deg F but breezy . . . yet, still great times for these guys.

Which now leads to another cool-climate Scandinavian country, Norway, where the Oslo Bislett Games 5000 awaits in 6 days. Projected race-time temp there is currently forecasted to be 60 deg F and breezy. However, the partially enclosed stadium will likely mitigate wind effects.

Still no official start lists posted, but early entrant Graham Blanks's coach just revealed to LRC, Graham is healthy & fit and in better shape than at this time last year when he ran his 12:48.20 pr for 5th at the Bislett Games.

If 2 unknown 5000 guys & a steeple specialist can break 13 minutes, what awaits us on June 10th when the world's best 5000 guys toe the line?

I feel like calling him a steeple specialist is a bit unfair...it's clearly his best event but he ran sub 8. WA says the equivalence is 3:28.33 and 12:44. Every sub 8 steepler should be able to comfortably go under 13 imo.

(On a side note, here is what chatGPT says - note the inaccuracies: The biggest uncertainty is the conversion from steeplechase to flat running. At the world-class level, an 8:00 steeplechaser is often capable of roughly 7:30–7:35 for a flat 3000 m, depending on strengths and racing background. Using that as the starting point gives:
1500 m: around 3:36
5000 m: around 13:00
10,000 m: around 27:00
For context, Soufiane El Bakkali (Olympic and world champion) has run 7:56 for the steeple and 12:50 for 5000 m, while Lamecha Girma (former world-record holder) has run 7:52 for the steeple and 12:42 for 5000 m. So a sub-8 steepler being around 13:00 flat for 5k is very realistic.)

Ok, you presented some good references & statistics, so agreed on the latter bolded comment.

Nonetheless, fact remains, Ruppert's focus & primary event is the steeplechase. Maybe he could be one of the world's best 5000 guys if he wanted to. But he's chosen not to train specifically for that event.

The point of the prior post remains: if those 3 can do what they did in Turku, what can 11 guys w/prs under 12:50 do in Oslo in similarly favorable, if not ideal, conditions?