I don't think too much should be read into the fact that this is a DL race. I doubt it means she now thinks she can be a serious contender over that distance.
To Hodgkinson it's probably still just her usual annual early season 400m race serving as preparation for the more important 800s to come. But because she's now an Olympic champion and has that fast indoor 4x400 split, she's able to get a lane in a race at the highest level. Perhaps she could have done the same last year if she hadn't been injured during the first half of the outdoor season.
Oh, and although I appreciate the effort that's gone into collecting predictions from various people, there is an error when it comes to me. I've not made any prediction. At most I may have quoted one.
I am unable to edit my posts so I have to make additions this way:
Updated with additional times:
Douglas Burke: 49.4 -49.8 High Hope: 50.15 ZXCVXZCV: 50.28 John Wesley: 50.80 L Doc: 50.84 Flo'da Boy: 50.89 Kobbs Hessler: 50.99 Bibi Owns: 50.8-51.20 Lkljb: 50+ Mock Tudor: 51.08 Moorest: 51.0 My Prediction: 51.01 Salvitore St: 51.0x Bemkefol: 51.10 Track Chick: 51.26 NYCDCRunner1: 51.5 Miclamlecuhtli: 51.6
Is Anybody considering Hodgkinson ran 50.10 Split in the 4 x 400 less than an hour after she ran 1:55.30 for 800 a 50.10 Split is about 50.8-51.1, but she will be fresh for this 400 the other open 400' for her were lowkey, having fresh legs will put her at about 50 flat and almost all runners are better shape for outdoors than indoors, the 400 runners will likely be close to a second ahead at 200 meters 23 low for 400 runners and 24 low for hodgkinson but at 300 her 800 strength kicks in and she will gain momentum closing on them, hodgkinson will NOT Win She will likely be 3rd to 5th, but this field is so good she will be pulled to under 50 which i see as probable the question is how much under 50 I say as fast as 49.4
Remember the 1:55.30 less than an hour before the relay and her goal is The World Record of 1:53.28, maybe 1:52 but that is for another thread, She will be Fresh and in better shape for the Golden Gala NO SHE WILL NOT WIN, Yes Sub 50 is Likely
Is Anybody considering Hodgkinson ran 50.10 Split in the 4 x 400 less than an hour after she ran 1:55.30 for 800 a 50.10 Split is about 50.8-51.1, but she will be fresh for this 400 the other open 400' for her were lowkey, having fresh legs will put her at about 50 flat and almost all runners are better shape for outdoors than indoors, the 400 runners will likely be close to a second ahead at 200 meters 23 low for 400 runners and 24 low for hodgkinson but at 300 her 800 strength kicks in and she will gain momentum closing on them, hodgkinson will NOT Win She will likely be 3rd to 5th, but this field is so good she will be pulled to under 50 which i see as probable the question is how much under 50 I say as fast as 49.4
Remember the 1:55.30 less than an hour before the relay and her goal is The World Record of 1:53.28, maybe 1:52 but that is for another thread, She will be Fresh and in better shape for the Golden Gala NO SHE WILL NOT WIN, Yes Sub 50 is Likely
Aye, but have you considered there was a mini peak & taper for the World Indoors, and this 400m will be run during an early phase of her summer schedule - no peak, possibly a small taper, but not significant?
I am unable to edit my posts so I have to make additions this way:
Updated with additional times:
Douglas Burke: 49.4 -49.8 High Hope: 50.15 ZXCVXZCV: 50.28 John Wesley: 50.80 L Doc: 50.84 Flo'da Boy: 50.89 Kobbs Hessler: 50.99 Bibi Owns: 50.8-51.20 Lkljb: 50+ Mock Tudor: 51.08 Moorest: 51.0 My Prediction: 51.01 Salvitore St: 51.0x Bemkefol: 51.10 Track Chick: 51.26 NYCDCRunner1: 51.5 Miclamlecuhtli: 51.6
Is Anybody considering Hodgkinson ran 50.10 Split in the 4 x 400 less than an hour after she ran 1:55.30 for 800 a 50.10 Split is about 50.8-51.1, but she will be fresh for this 400 the other open 400' for her were lowkey, having fresh legs will put her at about 50 flat and almost all runners are better shape for outdoors than indoors, the 400 runners will likely be close to a second ahead at 200 meters 23 low for 400 runners and 24 low for hodgkinson but at 300 her 800 strength kicks in and she will gain momentum closing on them, hodgkinson will NOT Win She will likely be 3rd to 5th, but this field is so good she will be pulled to under 50 which i see as probable the question is how much under 50 I say as fast as 49.4
Remember the 1:55.30 less than an hour before the relay and her goal is The World Record of 1:53.28, maybe 1:52 but that is for another thread, She will be Fresh and in better shape for the Golden Gala NO SHE WILL NOT WIN, Yes Sub 50 is Likely
All the runners in that field usually only run sub 50 1 or 2 times per season, usually only at peak form. And you think Keely will run 49.4 and finish 3rd to 5th? If she really runs 49.4 she will easily win the race. The winning time probably won't be sub 50. And you don't need to speculate on that 50.10 split, she ran 51.49 indoors from the blocks this year, on fresh legs and close to her peak form
This post was edited 36 seconds after it was posted.
Is Anybody considering Hodgkinson ran 50.10 Split in the 4 x 400 less than an hour after she ran 1:55.30 for 800 a 50.10 Split is about 50.8-51.1, but she will be fresh for this 400 the other open 400' for her were lowkey, having fresh legs will put her at about 50 flat and almost all runners are better shape for outdoors than indoors, the 400 runners will likely be close to a second ahead at 200 meters 23 low for 400 runners and 24 low for hodgkinson but at 300 her 800 strength kicks in and she will gain momentum closing on them, hodgkinson will NOT Win She will likely be 3rd to 5th, but this field is so good she will be pulled to under 50 which i see as probable the question is how much under 50 I say as fast as 49.4
Remember the 1:55.30 less than an hour before the relay and her goal is The World Record of 1:53.28, maybe 1:52 but that is for another thread, She will be Fresh and in better shape for the Golden Gala NO SHE WILL NOT WIN, Yes Sub 50 is Likely
All the runners in that field usually only run sub 50 1 or 2 times per season, usually only at peak form. And you think Keely will run 49.4 and finish 3rd to 5th? If she really runs 49.4 she will easily win the race. The winning time probably won't be sub 50. And you don't need to speculate on that 50.10 split, she ran 51.49 indoors from the blocks this year, on fresh legs and close to her peak form
Butler under 50 7 times in 2025, pryce 6 times the polish woman Natalia B 4-5 times, 9 times in 2024 the Norwegian Woman Jaeger 4-5 Times, These Woman are under 50 Regularly, not sure if Paulino is running she is sub 50 mostly and under 49 several times.
The conversion from relay split to regular 400m time will be worse for Hodgkinson than for people used to starting blocks. I don't think a 49.xx time is remotely realistic.
The conversion from relay split to regular 400m time will be worse for Hodgkinson than for people used to starting blocks. I don't think a 49.xx time is remotely realistic.
Lots of 800 Runners have run good 400's Mal Whitfield, Alberto Juantorena, Ana Quirot, Caster Semenya (I know DSD Athlete) but similar To Hodgkinson 800 Runner she ran a 400 onRare occasion and Ran 49.6
Is Anybody considering Hodgkinson ran 50.10 Split in the 4 x 400 less than an hour after she ran 1:55.30 for 800 a 50.10 Split is about 50.8-51.1, but she will be fresh for this 400 the other open 400' for her were lowkey, having fresh legs will put her at about 50 flat and almost all runners are better shape for outdoors than indoors, the 400 runners will likely be close to a second ahead at 200 meters 23 low for 400 runners and 24 low for hodgkinson but at 300 her 800 strength kicks in and she will gain momentum closing on them, hodgkinson will NOT Win She will likely be 3rd to 5th, but this field is so good she will be pulled to under 50 which i see as probable the question is how much under 50 I say as fast as 49.4
Remember the 1:55.30 less than an hour before the relay and her goal is The World Record of 1:53.28, maybe 1:52 but that is for another thread, She will be Fresh and in better shape for the Golden Gala NO SHE WILL NOT WIN, Yes Sub 50 is Likely
A 1.5s PB is likely? I think a PB getting her to 50-high is possible if not probable with warm/good conditions. Sub-50 though is a whole different level, and is a pretty lofty expectation in June no less. While there are numerous sub-50 women in it, I think 49.6-8 will be good enough to win it. No Paulino, Naser (though who knows what's up with her). If Keely can get out with Natalia Bukoweicka that might be best. She is a runner who really pushes the last 150 and does a more restrained first 200.
Is Anybody considering Hodgkinson ran 50.10 Split in the 4 x 400 less than an hour after she ran 1:55.30 for 800 a 50.10 Split is about 50.8-51.1, but she will be fresh for this 400 the other open 400' for her were lowkey, having fresh legs will put her at about 50 flat and almost all runners are better shape for outdoors than indoors, the 400 runners will likely be close to a second ahead at 200 meters 23 low for 400 runners and 24 low for hodgkinson but at 300 her 800 strength kicks in and she will gain momentum closing on them, hodgkinson will NOT Win She will likely be 3rd to 5th, but this field is so good she will be pulled to under 50 which i see as probable the question is how much under 50 I say as fast as 49.4
Remember the 1:55.30 less than an hour before the relay and her goal is The World Record of 1:53.28, maybe 1:52 but that is for another thread, She will be Fresh and in better shape for the Golden Gala NO SHE WILL NOT WIN, Yes Sub 50 is Likely
A 1.5s PB is likely? I think a PB getting her to 50-high is possible if not probable with warm/good conditions. Sub-50 though is a whole different level, and is a pretty lofty expectation in June no less. While there are numerous sub-50 women in it, I think 49.6-8 will be good enough to win it. No Paulino, Naser (though who knows what's up with her). If Keely can get out with Natalia Bukoweicka that might be best. She is a runner who really pushes the last 150 and does a more restrained first 200.
49.6 wont win it Little Aaliyah ran 49.78 Completely falling apat she was on low 49 pace for 350 Meters her college teammate ran 48.92 Saturday She knows she can run at least that fast, I am biased but I think she is a rising star, She will get faster as the seasom progresses.
49.4-49.8: Douglas Burke 50.15: High Hope 50.28: ZXCVXZCV 50.4: For Her it is good 50.66: Pissing Vinegar 50.8: John Wesley 50.84: L Doc 50.89: Flo'da Boy 50.99: Kobbs Hessler 50.8-51.20: Bibi Owns 50.+: Lkljb: 51: Moorest: <51.00: Surprise 51.01: My Prediction 51.0x: Salvitore St: 51.1: Bemkefol 51.2: VVV 51.26: Track Chick 51.5: NYCDCRunner1 51.6: Miclamlecuhtli
This post was edited 16 minutes after it was posted.
I have been reading some articles and I am going to revise my prediction (one reserves the right to do so before the meet starts! :-P) I am now predicting 50.1 - 50.2.
Why a big change? Well apparently she has run 49.16 with the usual predictor workout of 250m, short rest, then 150m.
Now, we don't know whether that's a flying start with 1m+ rest (in which case we might add 1.5 secs + ....) or whether it was a standing start with very little rest, in which case it would be a close predictor of capability.
Olg Bryzgina used to do 300m + 100m and it would be 1 sec slower than her 400m time. Keely obviously has better endurance so can cope better with that type of work out, but I am now much more confident she can smash her PB than I was a few weeks ago.
I have been reading some articles and I am going to revise my prediction (one reserves the right to do so before the meet starts! :-P) I am now predicting 50.1 - 50.2.
Why a big change? Well apparently she has run 49.16 with the usual predictor workout of 250m, short rest, then 150m.
Now, we don't know whether that's a flying start with 1m+ rest (in which case we might add 1.5 secs + ....) or whether it was a standing start with very little rest, in which case it would be a close predictor of capability.
Olg Bryzgina used to do 300m + 100m and it would be 1 sec slower than her 400m time. Keely obviously has better endurance so can cope better with that type of work out, but I am now much more confident she can smash her PB than I was a few weeks ago.
To take a whole second off over the 400 is a massive improvement. It is a sprint distance, not a md or distance event where improvements in endurance can make quite a difference. The assumption is that somehow she will get a lot faster than she was - as a sprinter. It doesnt work like that.