19 minutes.
19 minutes.
5YearNcaa wrote:
It’s 15:59. If you can break 16 you are a lock for sub 3 even if you didn’t run the proper mileage or long runs. The caveat to this is that you can’t ever get greedy and would have to swallow your pride during the race which is hard for a lot of people. You would be racing with people much slower than you (think 17:30-18:30 5k guys) but they put in the time on their feet so they would be getting the most out of their bodies that day to run the time while the sub 16 guy would have to play it safe. The reason why a sub 16 guy wouldn’t break 3 would be that they went out too hard since it feels ridiculously easy in the beginning and they would probably think they are leaving seconds out there but aren’t. 2:59:59 is 6:52 pace, a sub 16 guy would casually run that on a training run. As long as they robotically stuck to that pace and didn’t go faster they would easily do it.
I agree with a lot but if the question is about guarantees then NOTHING about PBs does so. Sure MANY fast enough in 5K have broken and can break 3. But fitness is very specific. If a hypothetical runner no longer trains at 6:30-7:00 min/per mile pace in any of their training runs there is always a chance that suddenly trying to run in that pace frame for 3 hours might see them ending up injured, cramping badly or running out of some part of the proverbial steam before the finish line. Not so much because they will be out of breath. But the muscles used will work differently, their gait will change, their foot strike likewise. There is even a different level of upper body (as in shoulder and deltoid exhaustion) that get added to the mix after a while. Mentally, running slower than normal for much longer than usual requires a different kind of focus (and can be very tedious for some people). Some physically quite capable might after 2 hours of slogging of concentrating on doing so suddenly feel there's no point to continue (mind games are more and different, and which can be quite unpleasant, even more so in ultras). Especially if one would otherwise in no way be interested in racing distances longer than 5k (or in running for longer than one hour). Then even the act of walking for 3 hours at a decent clip or even slowly might be more uncomfortable than it sounds. Of course, I cannot generalise, so this will not apply to everyone. But it's ONE of the ways of looking at why there are no guarantees.
Sheikh Yaboutii wrote:
Jakob and Hocker could roll out of bed tomorrow and run a 2:59 marathon despite focusing only on the 1500/5000, with the latter running probably close to 50mpw.
Those are the elite of the elite though, could any 15:00 college runner drop a sub-3 marathon in the middle of XC training? What about a 16:00 runner? Where is the cutoff?
A 3hr marathon is super slow. Make the time 2:30 nobody cares about 2:59 I ran a 17min 5k in highschool and could run 2:50 marathon any day of the week. What slooow time
here’s 1:43 guy adam ksczcot struggling for a 2:50 lol
snowdays wrote:
here’s 1:43 guy adam ksczcot struggling for a 2:50 lol
Wow, this puts things into perspective. The guy ran a 3:38 1500 just a couple of years ago. I wonder what his training looked like the last couple of months. Did he train properly (which I suspect for a European running the NYC Marathon) or did he do it off just running once in a while?
Guy I ran with in HS had a 19 min PR in HS mid 18 5k PR in his 20s he’s run a few 2:58s