That's simply not true. At least, no credible questions about progression come up just because someone runs a fast time.
Running significant outlier times after years and years of training and racing at the top level, with great coaching, and access to altitude training, nutritionists, etc., at an age that would generally correlate with slowing down... that's a different story in terms of eye-popping progression.
Years and years of training and racing at the top level with great coaching?
Are you joking? SHe went to cal (sea -level) had was AWFUl with Shelby H's sister as her coach. Then she got a job.
I should have been more clear, but look at the post I was responding to.
I didn’t mean this accusation specifically. I meant that not all accusations of a suspicious progression are bogus. Some are legitimately interesting if all the variables suggest the person should have already been maximizing performance then have a massive improvement late in their career.
All these letsrun kids think early 30s is "old", but you are still practically at your peak physiologically until late 30s (a bit of variation depending on race distance here). The reason we don't see as many 30+ setting records or winning championships is mostly because it's very hard to stay that healthy and motivated for that long rather than being about physiology.
Why This Looks Suspect Age and development curve Normal female middle-distance progression: peak often between ages 23–28, with gradual improvements and occasional breakthroughs. Here: stagnation/regression through prime years, then sudden elite breakthrough in 2023–2024 (athlete would likely be late 20s or 30s by then). This is highly atypical. Magnitude of improvement Dropping ~20 seconds in the 1500m within two years after years of stagnation is unprecedented without external factors. The 800m drop from ~2:09 to 1:55 (14 seconds) after years of flatlining is equally extraordinary. Comparative context 1:55–1:56 (800m) and 3:52–3:54 (1500m) are medal-level times in World Championships / Olympics. To reach that after years in the 2:07–2:12 and 4:18–4:50 ranges is not consistent with natural progression. Pattern The "step-function" nature of the jumps (sudden elite performances after mediocre years) is something that anti-doping experts often flag as suspicious. Conclusion Yes — this progression is very suspect. The sharp, late-career breakthroughs after years of stagnation/regression are not consistent with normal physiological development. Times in 2024–2025 put the athlete among the fastest in history, despite no indication of being near that level before. This kind of jump typically raises questions about doping, medical intervention, or record irregularities.
Why This Looks Suspect Age and development curve Normal female middle-distance progression: peak often between ages 23–28, with gradual improvements and occasional breakthroughs. Here: stagnation/regression through prime years, then sudden elite breakthrough in 2023–2024 (athlete would likely be late 20s or 30s by then). This is highly atypical. Magnitude of improvement Dropping ~20 seconds in the 1500m within two years after years of stagnation is unprecedented without external factors. The 800m drop from ~2:09 to 1:55 (14 seconds) after years of flatlining is equally extraordinary. Comparative context 1:55–1:56 (800m) and 3:52–3:54 (1500m) are medal-level times in World Championships / Olympics. To reach that after years in the 2:07–2:12 and 4:18–4:50 ranges is not consistent with natural progression. Pattern The "step-function" nature of the jumps (sudden elite performances after mediocre years) is something that anti-doping experts often flag as suspicious. Conclusion Yes — this progression is very suspect. The sharp, late-career breakthroughs after years of stagnation/regression are not consistent with normal physiological development. Times in 2024–2025 put the athlete among the fastest in history, despite no indication of being near that level before. This kind of jump typically raises questions about doping, medical intervention, or record irregularities.
Nope. It's all about achieving your potential. Obviously something you never did.
I was lolling at this, which didn't show in my reply for some reason.
Yeah Froome and Wiggins were two of the greatest cyclists of all time. Having Lance conquer France for 7 years in a row was bad enough, but the French were simply unable to accept the toughness of the Brits in cycling who had a long history of dominating big Tours before Froome and Wiggins. Besides, as Wiggins honestly reported in his biography, the British Sky team had a no needles policy so none of their cyclists ever took an injection or infusion. How are you going to take any useful PEDs without injections? Froome was probably one of the toughest cyclists who ever lived. He pushed himself so hard in the Vuelta that his kidneys went into failure and started producing asthma drugs thereby artificially producing off-the-charts drugs tests results. But there was no real positive drugs test for anyone to see there.
As another testament to their toughness, is worth noting that both of these guys overcame dangerously life threatening asthma and they had to take high doses of steroids just to be able to get out of bed in the morning which did not give them any advantage against their competitors.
Why This Looks Suspect Age and development curve Normal female middle-distance progression: peak often between ages 23–28, with gradual improvements and occasional breakthroughs. Here: stagnation/regression through prime years, then sudden elite breakthrough in 2023–2024 (athlete would likely be late 20s or 30s by then). This is highly atypical.
She didn't stagnate or regress in her 'prime years', she simply wasn't competing as a middle distance athlete.
She didn't do a single race for 4 years between 2018 and 2021.
Why This Looks Suspect Age and development curve Normal female middle-distance progression: peak often between ages 23–28, with gradual improvements and occasional breakthroughs. Here: stagnation/regression through prime years, then sudden elite breakthrough in 2023–2024 (athlete would likely be late 20s or 30s by then). This is highly atypical.
She didn't stagnate or regress in her 'prime years', she simply wasn't competing as a middle distance athlete.
She didn't do a single race for 4 years between 2018 and 2021.
All the UK athletes are sus, and somehow don’t get popped? Unless I missed some news.
2022 4:03.02 (mile time. He had no 1500 results in 2022. This roughly converts to a 1500 of 3:45.01)
2023 3:48.35 2024 3:38.63 2025 3:29.75
Hoey was a 1:47-1:49 800 runner from 2017-2023. At some point you are who you are. Idk as much about Bell but I am more inclined to believe a talented junior who took some time off can come back to the sport and do well. She ran 2:08 as a U-15. I know Hoey ran fast as a junior but he tried his hand at running faster for several years & couldn't, until he suddenly became a world beater. Bell did a bunch of duathlons in between. Idk.
I'll say the same thing I say on all of these threads. Top athletes are usually super talented to begin with. That said, whereabouts/TUEs/supplements/etc should all be public. A lot of top athletes take designer drugs that haven't been banned yet. A lot of top athletes microdose because they're told everyone else is & that they're not doping if their tests keep coming back clean. I think that stuff is doping but that's where we are. The general public just wants to sit back & watch someone do something they can't. PEDs are present in every major (& minor) sport. Would people be ok seeing someone run a 3:5x mile instead of 3:4x? The problem is that we've made 3:4x the standard.
Its amazing how many commenters have not bothered to take the time to learn about her background. She was a phenom from her early days who was nearly ruined by NCAA meat grinder. Surely not the first time that has happened...
She wasn't running any other sprint races. Would not have been sprint training. On vdot a 27 secs 200m converts to a potential of a 1.53! This is someone who is clearly fast twitch. Over trained in the US and fell out of love with running.
Then in her 20s starts biking building the aerobic engine and then back she returns to running longer distances and only then returns to 1500m and 800m.
There is nothing suspicious about any progression. It is all possible on Letsrun. If dopers exist they are never the most successful athletes or the fastest and certainly not those who make off the charts gains in a very short period. It's all "talent, training, nutrition, motivation, shoes" and even "God". No fast athlete would dream of doping.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
There is nothing suspicious about any progression. It is all possible on Letsrun. If dopers exist they are never the most successful athletes or the fastest and certainly not those who make off the charts gains in a very short period. It's all "talent, training, nutrition, motivation, shoes" and even "God". No fast athlete would dream of doping.
Most posters are sceptical about many progressions.
Why This Looks Suspect Age and development curve Normal female middle-distance progression: peak often between ages 23–28, with gradual improvements and occasional breakthroughs. Here: stagnation/regression through prime years, then sudden elite breakthrough in 2023–2024 (athlete would likely be late 20s or 30s by then). This is highly atypical. Magnitude of improvement Dropping ~20 seconds in the 1500m within two years after years of stagnation is unprecedented without external factors. The 800m drop from ~2:09 to 1:55 (14 seconds) after years of flatlining is equally extraordinary. Comparative context 1:55–1:56 (800m) and 3:52–3:54 (1500m) are medal-level times in World Championships / Olympics. To reach that after years in the 2:07–2:12 and 4:18–4:50 ranges is not consistent with natural progression. Pattern The "step-function" nature of the jumps (sudden elite performances after mediocre years) is something that anti-doping experts often flag as suspicious. Conclusion Yes — this progression is very suspect. The sharp, late-career breakthroughs after years of stagnation/regression are not consistent with normal physiological development. Times in 2024–2025 put the athlete among the fastest in history, despite no indication of being near that level before. This kind of jump typically raises questions about doping, medical intervention, or record irregularities.
Not to mention the dramatic and obvious changes in her physical appearance the past three years….