Athing Mu-Nikolayev looks much better - Runs 2:00.42 for 6th at Ed Murphey Classic, Akins 2:00.76 for 8th.

I don't think this is a "temporary funk". It's just the way the cards were dealt to her. There are still three weeks to go. Believe it or not, that's a long time, especially when you're talking about someone who stats are far above her peers.

I'd rather be the hunter than the hunted.

Took 3 mins off in 1 week. That's pure talent. She will make the team. Mark my words.

I believe she still can break the WR one day, if she can fix her mental game.

Kipyegon's PB is 4:07. Mu's PB is 1:54. It's a lot easier to run in the territory you used to do. (and a lot tougher to run in unknown territory)

That's never stopped you before.

And 2:00.42 is objectively "not good." Heck, two high school girls just ran faster than that. Jonathan didn't say "Mu can't make the team" he simply said her time wasn't good which is a true statement.

He's wrong. He's the same guy who said that Pre wasn't a competitor. He, and you, have no real historical perspective when it comes to competitive athletics. Mu is the real deal. Your "two high school kids" are not. (yet)

Malmo:

1. I have worked for LetsRun.com for 11 years. My JOB is to make assessments about professional runners' trajectories. I don't have a perfect track record in my predictions, but does anyone? What are the qualifications for someone's "personal athletic background" to weigh in on such matters?

2. It would be pretty boring if I wasn't allowed to speak about the readiness of anyone who has won a gold medal or set an American record. And if you read my entire post, you'd know that I tried to put the performance in perspective.

3. Perhaps you should familiarize yourself more with Mu's results and interviews over the last three years before weighing in. You've seen this before? You've seen one of the world's greatest-ever combination 400/800 women go to a renowned sprint coach who had her focus more on the 800/1500, then open up her season by running a 5k and dropping out 3k in? Then run a 1500 against DII kids? Then another 1500 before finally running her first 800?

4. Who has the bigger hubris? A guy who has covered Mu's entire professional career? Or the guy who thinks that because he ran one slow steeple and one fast steeple 50 years ago that he knows exactly what's going on with a women's 800 runner in the year 2025?

I may not be as old as you, but I've been around long enough to see super-talented athletes have a bad race and follow it up with a good race. I know it happens and it could well happen here with Mu.

But I stand by my point that 2:00.42 in a race where she ran out of gas in the last 100 and lost to four Americans three weeks out from USAs is not a good result for a woman who ran 1:54 less than two years ago.

I have to side with Jonathan on that one. He didn't just say the 2:00 was not good, he also went on to paint it in a positive light and even said she absolutely could shave another 2-3 secs off to make the team. If anything, I think his post was cautiously optimistic.

If she goes on with her recent trajectory, she can make the team of course, but let's be real, things sometimes just go off the rail in 3 weeks. She can get sick, food poisoning right before trial, or god forbid, injured again. No one can say for certain despite my previous very optimistic post (as I'm a fan), those who claim so are either lying or ignorant .

She took off 3 secs b/c she jogged the last 150m at pre. I don't view this as any substantial improvement from pre, other than that she probably realized that she at least needs to look like she's trying out there. Maybe that's a marginal improvement mentally. But I'm not impressed at all by this performance.

fair enough. The good thing is we will see in a few weeks. Ngl kinda excited about it. :D

I think you are right. It seems to end the question "is it mental or physical." This looks like a honest effort from a runner who is a long way out of shape.

Could she have taken longer to get over the hamstring problem than we knew? Have they over-extended the base and she's short of speed endurance, or lactate tolerance?

Some of response to training is genes turning on, which is why response can be so fast (for example in the "out of shape Rono story" in a week he went from a first session of 1000m reps where I'd have hammered him, to where he'd have destroyed me, in the space of a week. That's not cardio-vascular or muscular, that's genes turning on.

Mu could have benefited immensely from tonight's effort and 1:58 isn't out of the question in three week's time.

Absolutely agree.

Personal example: in my mid-50s, I had been focused on the 5000m both road and track (USATF Masters). I decided to run a road mile with the goal of getting the state age group record.

I decided at the start of the process, I'd do a 1200m time trial at 5:00 mile pace. The result, I came to a grinding lactate (actually hydrogen ion) filled halt at 800m. With that under my belt, and one mid-week session of 8x400m and I successful ran 1200m at 5:00 pace - that's an extra 400m at the same pace in the space of a week.

Particularly with hypoxia, genes turn on and adaption is very fast - every felt a burn in the arms and legs on the first rep of the session and the felt OK for later reps? That's genes turning.

Athing can get a huge upside from just this one race.

I don't know if Malmo agrees with my explanation from a science/physiology standpoint, but the experiences we're describing are very real.

The assessment of Brazier seems off to me. His first race stunned almost everyone, then the next race extended that. At that point he knew it's feasible and trains for 1:42 I'm guessing. He has a tough set of competitors (although one of them didn't look great tonight). There are so many 1:44 guys that making it through the rounds will be tough and I expect more of a race than a fast 1:42. If Brazier is ready his racing background gives himan advantage. Also. We don't know if he used bicarbonate etc.

As for Mu I saw this as much different than Pre. Here if she had a bit more stamina for the last 80m she runs well to the tape. Last week almost everyone looked better 3her the whole race. Here only one quality athlete looked clearly better for most of the race where she would be better off time wise being a bit slower the first lap.

You're responding to your own post. I think you have tried hard enough for this Kersee the chemist thing to catch on, but it hasn't. So maybe it's time to move on to the next hobby.

That's a pretty good defense. However, I never said I know exactly what's going on with Mu, I said that YOU don't know what's going on with her. The only thing I said is that I've been there before. Your gross mischaracterization is insulting to me.

I used my example to illustrate that only the athlete knows the behind the scenes details, and the rapid turnarounds that happen often in our sport. In my example, it wasn't some random slow race then two weeks later an AR. It was my first steeplechase in almost a year due to a stress fracture. I didn't even qualify for nationals.

If you were around back then you would have written "8:48, he ran out of gas that last 100m. His teammate beat him, that doesn't look good. He didn't even qualify for Nationals" Even though you never talked to me or my coach. See my point Jonathan?

A journalist has to have a curious mind.

The point of your lack of athletic qualifications isn't to insult you, it's to point out your lack of perspective, a lack of empathy. You would have understood the nuance, the ebbs and flow that occur during an athletes career. But you don't.

What you see is 2:00.42 three weeks out from USAs is not good.

What I see is 2:00.42 three weeks out from USAs is pretty good. I'd rather be the hunter than the hunted.

I didn't say anything about Mu, or anyone, having a bad race then having a good one. Her races are less than great, but they are moving in a positive direction. But they are what they are for a reason. From a purely speculative place, I would guess an injury set her back that hasn't come around as fast as it could have. But if I was a journalist, I would ask her about that. Did you?

Since you've covered Mu's entire professional career, don't you think you should be the one to tell us what's going on? When was the last time you interviewed her? What did she tell her? What did her coach tell you? Do they talk to you? It seems that there are a few athletes that won't.

Jonathan, I like you. You're the glue that keeps the entire operation together. You don't make unforced errors.

A good improvement from last week. Just the fact she raced again a week later seems to be showing some urgency in racing / training.

Trials are soon and remember it won't be just one race but rounds and a final. My money is on her not making the team.

Remember the famous story of Henry Rono who went from 15:40 to a WR 13:06 in the space of a 2 months in the 5km?

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/04/when-henry-rono-went-from-1540-to-a-1306-world-record-in-two-months/

Why all the talk of potential progression in the coming weeks, and why not "how the hell is she still this far off her best having been apparently healthy and training consistently all winter long?".

It's scandalous that someone with this level of talent is so far off her best for no reason whatsoever. If she does miraculously appear in 1.57 form in a few weeks time then you'd have to ask what the hell happened that she was so far off it in the build up.

If she'd been sidelined for months with an injury, then this kind of "will she be ready in time" talk would make sense. But it's not the cases and that's the bigger issue here.