Rounds could be an issue, no doubt about it. The US is strong up top, but it does fall off.
You have:
sub-144 guys: Hoppel, Hoey, Koech, Miller, Brazier Solidly sub-145 guys seemingly: Whitmarsh, Cohen, Alvarado Past It? : Harris, Kidder, Jewett College Dark Horse: Christian Jackson, Matsatsa, McCarthy Can't Rule It Out But Major ? Marks: Sumner, Wes Ferguson
I'd say that first 8 is pretty solid, but I'd be a little wary of anyone else out of that group.
Forgetting Kessler, no? He made the Olympic team last year after running 3 rounds of the 1500 and two of the 800. I know he didn't look great in the 800 at GST Philidelphia, but he definitely deserves a mention.
Rounds could be an issue, no doubt about it. The US is strong up top, but it does fall off.
You have:
sub-144 guys: Hoppel, Hoey, Koech, Miller, Brazier Solidly sub-145 guys seemingly: Whitmarsh, Cohen, Alvarado Past It? : Harris, Kidder, Jewett College Dark Horse: Christian Jackson, Matsatsa, McCarthy Can't Rule It Out But Major ? Marks: Sumner, Wes Ferguson
I'd say that first 8 is pretty solid, but I'd be a little wary of anyone else out of that group.
Forgetting Kessler, no? He made the Olympic team last year after running 3 rounds of the 1500 and two of the 800. I know he didn't look great in the 800 at GST Philidelphia, but he definitely deserves a mention.
There's zero chance Kessler will run the 800 at USAs. It's only 4 days.
i would like to learn about his training during the latest injury periods
who did the surgery?
and speaking of the 800 and the prior conventional wisdom to split 2 seconds plus for the first 400m? i never understood that beyond bro science explanations, and especially the fact that it was almost done at the elite level for best time. which kind of made it a fact... which apparently it is not.
it is looking like even splits is the best for time, back in the day there was a precedent, but rare.
like the ovett russian love child ran, and wottle ran in 72, in a race that i can watch again and again, and get excited every time ,also symonds ran his 142 this way as well. rudisha ran 52 and 50 in africa at his peak ...
my favorite athlete secretariat ran belmont, they say in an all time one off, all time record, running each quarter faster than the previous one, for a record, i think stands today, in a win 31 lengths ahead. and this implies that the horse could have run faster ... as he was still accelerating.
actually in horse racing, given they have like a million data points, negative splits for best time , the odds are almost zero... which makes it "face".
things get interesting when a solid theory has holes blown in it.
There’s all kinds of reasons why the 800m is a positive split race.
Physiologically, it’s a lot like the 400m. The faster you get, the more anaerobic aka closer it gets too. The 60/40 aerobic to anaerobic figure came from study patients who were running nowhere near a world class time, not even national class 5000m pace. The 400m certainly isn’t run best on even or negative splits, and anecdotally you will see an 800m feels much more like a 400m than even a 1500m if you were to race all 3.
As far as race strategy goes, you only get one move in the 800m, because you are running at a sub maximal sprint and will need to speed up to a maximal sprint to get around people, which is very energy demanding. In the mile/1500 and above, running the race wire to wire usually doesn’t benefit you, this is why Jakob loses a lot in championships despite being the fastest miler in the world right now. In the 800m, because it’s so hard to pass people, you are benefited by keeping yourself out of traffic and not giving anyone the opportunity to pass you until they are hopefully too tired to pass you. This means getting out as fast as you can without having a complete meltdown over the final 200m.
Do you have this study? I am interested in reading it. The 60/40 figure is almost universally cited by most when it comes to 800m training.
I'll be honest, I'd written him off completely. This comeback is unreal.
I have a pocket theory: the negative splitting we're seeing by many pros and high schoolers is a sign of bicarb use. Not a scientific theory, just a guess. Have the event tactics changed permanently now?
I sort of wondered the same thing, though my best—vastly inferior—times in the 800 were also even or negative splits way before it was cool.
re: bicarb, I listened to Brazier’s citius interview after his first race, which was a couple days before yesterday, and he said he (1) hadn’t used bicarb yet and was nervous about it, so he wanted to try it in a workout first; (2) had been training for two months before deciding to do that first race and is at about 25-30mpw; and (3) was either still getting used to or hadn’t tried the newer super spikes yet, I forget which. So who knows what happens next, but that suggests a lot of potential improvement if he stays injury-free. Also said no pain in the achilles.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Autocorrect doesn’t like citius
Cooper is about a year off of having the ability to navigate the rounds. Even if he could right now, I don't think he runs faster than 1:44 high, even in a one off (am I really saying that about a high school sophomore?!)
No championship next year but 2027 Cooper will be a force to be reckoned with. Gonna steal some contracts for sure.
I'll be honest, I'd written him off completely. This comeback is unreal.
I have a pocket theory: the negative splitting we're seeing by many pros and high schoolers is a sign of bicarb use. Not a scientific theory, just a guess. Have the event tactics changed permanently now?
I sort of wondered the same thing, though my best—vastly inferior—times in the 800 were also even or negative splits way before it was cool.
re: bicarb, I listened to Brazier’s citrus interview after his first race, which was a couple days before yesterday, and he said he (1) hadn’t used bicarb yet and was nervous about it, so he wanted to try it in a workout first; (2) had been training for two months before deciding to do that first race and is at about 25-30mpw; and (3) was either still getting used to or hadn’t tried the newer super spikes yet, I forget which. So who knows what happens next, but that suggests a lot of potential improvement if he stays injury-free. Also said no pain in the achilles.
Besides the no pain factor, bicarb and the shoes will make Brazier even faster than pre-injuries.
The mental fortitude to stick with it during this epic lay off is what most impresses me.
I sort of wondered the same thing, though my best—vastly inferior—times in the 800 were also even or negative splits way before it was cool.
re: bicarb, I listened to Brazier’s citrus interview after his first race, which was a couple days before yesterday, and he said he (1) hadn’t used bicarb yet and was nervous about it, so he wanted to try it in a workout first; (2) had been training for two months before deciding to do that first race and is at about 25-30mpw; and (3) was either still getting used to or hadn’t tried the newer super spikes yet, I forget which. So who knows what happens next, but that suggests a lot of potential improvement if he stays injury-free. Also said no pain in the achilles.
Besides the no pain factor, bicarb and the shoes will make Brazier even faster than pre-injuries.
The mental fortitude to stick with it during this epic lay off is what most impresses me.
Champs:
1. Brazier
2. TBD
3. Hoey (who will be overcooked by July.)
If Howy were doped like Brazier he could avoid worrying about being overcooked.
Holy Cow! After watching the video of the race, Donavan is easily in 1:42 low shape! This is one of the greatest comebacks in USA Track & Field history!
I have a pocket theory: the negative splitting we're seeing by many pros and high schoolers is a sign of bicarb use. Not a scientific theory, just a guess. Have the event tactics changed permanently now?
re: bicarb, I listened to Brazier’s citius interview after his first race, which was a couple days before yesterday, and he said he (1) hadn’t used bicarb yet and was nervous about it, so he wanted to try it in a workout first; (2) had been training for two months before deciding to do that first race and is at about 25-30mpw; and (3) was either still getting used to or hadn’t tried the newer super spikes yet, I forget which. So who knows what happens next, but that suggests a lot of potential improvement if he stays injury-free. Also said no pain in the achilles.
If true (I suppose DB could be bluffing) this is the most interesting post so far in this thread. What do we reckon the two (shoes + bicarb) are worth?
re: bicarb, I listened to Brazier’s citius interview after his first race, which was a couple days before yesterday, and he said he (1) hadn’t used bicarb yet and was nervous about it, so he wanted to try it in a workout first; (2) had been training for two months before deciding to do that first race and is at about 25-30mpw; and (3) was either still getting used to or hadn’t tried the newer super spikes yet, I forget which. So who knows what happens next, but that suggests a lot of potential improvement if he stays injury-free. Also said no pain in the achilles.
If true (I suppose DB could be bluffing) this is the most interesting post so far in this thread. What do we reckon the two (shoes + bicarb) are worth?
This is crazy. How has a pro 800 runner in 2025 not at least tried bicarb in a training session? It's not a secret, and it's not prohibitively expensive. It's likely he's leaving time on the table by not using it.
Hoey, Miller, and Hoppell won't let it go easy. Rounds might also play a factor. Regardless, I'm just as happy as anyone to see his return. What a talent!
