Do we think it’s likely that the Heartland region will get any at large individuals?
Probably not. I dont know what the other at larges are going to be but it is kind of a fall off after the first 3.
well to be fair the top 3 are incredible so there was expected to be a fall off. I think because of how well heartland individuals have been performing the past few years with Birnbaum, Heidech, Breker in 2022 and Putz, Scott, and Mechura in 2023, it's not impossible. I do think the committee will prioritize at-larges in the northwest and southwest this year. But it's possible. Depends on what other regions have in store.
Sometimes a nationally ranked individual has an off race and misses NXN by 1 spot, and those are the people that get priority. We need to see how other regions play out
Sometimes a nationally ranked individual has an off race and misses NXN by 1 spot, and those are the people that get priority. We need to see how other regions play out
The committee doesn’t look at rankings or speed ratings to determine which runners had an “off race”. Which is quite arbitrary imho.
They look at post season races and how well past runners in that region have done and what times were run on those courses. At least this is what I heard.
Rules for teams is if they beat qualifying teams recently. I wonder about Pleasant Valley or Pella. Looks like Pella was in 2nd early but their number 2 faded to 7th. She has run 17:30 on the year.
Rules for teams is if they beat qualifying teams recently. I wonder about Pleasant Valley or Pella. Looks like Pella was in 2nd early but their number 2 faded to 7th. She has run 17:30 on the year.
There is no way that any boys or girls at large teams will come from this region.
Last year, before NXR, Riverton and Niwot boys never beat any autoqualifying teams and both got an at large and took top 9 at NXN. On the girls side, the Southwest region swept the top 4 spots at NXN. Shows that the Southwest region is that strong.
Last year, the girls teams took 21st and 22nd at NXN. Boys teams took 16th and 18th.
Simply put, I think the committee looks at which 4 at-large teams they think will add to the field the most (which 4 they think will finish the highest at NXN), which is the right thing to do.
I think for boys it will look like: 2 Southwest teams, 1 Northwest team, and the other one is up for grabs
Girls: 2 Southwest teams, 1 California team, and the other one is up for grabs. Maybe another California team. There are at least 5 California girls teams that are highly ranked.
Rules for teams is if they beat qualifying teams recently. I wonder about Pleasant Valley or Pella. Looks like Pella was in 2nd early but their number 2 faded to 7th. She has run 17:30 on the year.
Last year, the girls teams took 21st and 22nd at NXN. Boys teams took 16th and 18th.
Makes more sense but then athey aren't following the posted selection criteria. Better to change the criteria to match what they actually do. Pella girls are ranked 4th in Milesplit. Seems like they add something because their top runner is a favorite to win and the announcers will love that story about a small school in Iowa qualifying with a top contender.
Last year, the girls teams took 21st and 22nd at NXN. Boys teams took 16th and 18th.
Talking about the Heartland teams here
Agree what you wrote about other regions likely getting at larges.
That said, I believe the averages for top girls teams at Heartland are faster than they've ever been. Last year top team averages were #1 Wayzata 18:24 #2. West Olathe 18:32 # 3 Johnston 18:42This year Wayzata 17:50, Johnston 18:13, PV 18:26.
Unfortunately, #2 Pella girl is injured. Our kids were in the box next to her before the race. She was in pain and visibly upset. Looks like she's out. It's always a bummer, but definitely sad this year as the team was so strong. They were already down with one of top 5 w/ stress fracture. Incredible that they still ran that well with 2 of their top 5 out.
That doesn't help the argument though. Wayzata beat nobody last year except the other Heartland team and Pleasant Valley ran slower. Pella's average was 18:08.
Times are dropping everywhere at every level. I doubt that the Heartland teams will finish higher than usual. Shoes have made a major impact on the sport. Current high schoolers grew up with new shoe technology. They have been able to train harder for longer periods of time.
Probably not. I dont know what the other at larges are going to be but it is kind of a fall off after the first 3.
well to be fair the top 3 are incredible so there was expected to be a fall off. I think because of how well heartland individuals have been performing the past few years with Birnbaum, Heidech, Breker in 2022 and Putz, Scott, and Mechura in 2023, it's not impossible. I do think the committee will prioritize at-larges in the northwest and southwest this year. But it's possible. Depends on what other regions have in store.
That was my thought as well. We will see how the other regions individuals fare. I would not be surprised if HL gets 1 or 2 At larges.
well to be fair the top 3 are incredible so there was expected to be a fall off. I think because of how well heartland individuals have been performing the past few years with Birnbaum, Heidech, Breker in 2022 and Putz, Scott, and Mechura in 2023, it's not impossible. I do think the committee will prioritize at-larges in the northwest and southwest this year. But it's possible. Depends on what other regions have in store.
That was my thought as well. We will see how the other regions individuals fare. I would not be surprised if HL gets 1 or 2 At larges.