Narve Nordas on Niels Laros: "We're talking about a talent the size of Jakob - No doubt about it."

Nordas doesn't have any relevance to Niels Laros. As described, Laros ran the perfect race. That's the way a prodigy will think. He's not going to concede or settle.

Nordas ran an American style race, the same type of garbage I've watched for a half century. Hocker is merely the latest off the assembly line. Yeah, it works once in a while for a cheap bronze. Who cares? There is no foundation or upside. Just lots of kidding yourself, which I'm sure Clayton Murphy and Raevyn Rogers have done, among others.

Laros definitely has some showboat and extreme self confidence. But unlike Jakob it doesn't rub competitors the wrong way, at least not yet.

Witness the European U20s this year. Laros entered 4 events but only ran 2 of them. A Swedish guy Grahn won the 3000 that Laros skipped. When they met in the final of the 5000 on the final day, it was a tight race before Laros pulled away late. During the final meters Laros played to the crowd and largely emulated the celebration that Grahn had used during the 3000. He knows darn well Grahn is seeing it first hand, from meters back.

Initially it looked like there might be some tension after the race. Then Laros smiled and shook Grahn's hand, as if to say it's all in fun.

Jakob and Laros were probably both watching YouTube videos of Ovett when they were in their early and mid teens. That's where they got their self-belief that they could destroy the best of Africa.

Maybe Narve would've won or been 2nd if he had better position at the bell. He was 8th, half a second back of Kerr and 1.2 back of Jakob. His final 100 was 12.85. Hocker was even a bit further back -- he had the 3rd fastest final 100 in the field. The highest position he ever put himself in was 8th. Even he said before the race he hoped to not be kicking from the back.

My point was that I liked that Laros ran like he belonged in the final and did the things (positioning, following moves, etc.) that he will have to do later when he has a bit more fitness and can hang with the leaders longer. That's a lot cooler, particularly when you're in the final and nobody is really going to remember who came in 4th - 12th, than hanging out from 8th-10th all race.

Only on LetsRun can someone find a contrarian position to "it's smart race tactics to put yourself in good position, even if you're not totally sure you can hang with the pace."

Ummmm..........no.

Yes, but the level is MUCH higher than in 2018 with Jakob on top. But also Kerr, Wightman, Garcia, Katir, Nordås, Habz, Coscoran, Gourley, Giles and Mills in the 1500m and Katir, Gressier and a number of runners between 13 and 13:10 in the 5000m.

Jakob was faster and more accomplished as a teen than Laros has been.

No put down on Laroa. He is phenomenal. And runs with courage

But unless he explodes next year, my statement will stand

I dont understand why everyone assumes Jakob runs the same 1:46.44 he did in 2020, despite having run a 4:43 2000m since then.

You are not completely right Nick.

Reynold has a better time in the 2000m.

But Jakob ran 3:30.16 at 18; Reynold 3:30.30.

At 18 Jakob Ran 13:02 in the 5000m. Reynold didn´t run a 5000m but a 5km road in 13:04.

But I agree: Reynold is absolutely comparable to Jakob as Laros is.

With both Laros and Jakob showing this confidence and showmanship the t&f audience might learn to appreciate it. When asked about Jakob, Laros said that he is motivated by him, but hopes to surpass him. I love it.

We are getting them everywhere. In the last couple years the US had 2 guys chase a 800m record that no one was close to in 20 years, 2 guys break a 5000m record, the 1500m record set, a zillion guys run sub 4 and so on. Internation has been every crazier with Laros, the Japanese 5k and so on.

Some of it is people rising to meet the competition now that you need a 4:05 to be a national level runner versus a 4:15 20 years ago. A lot of it is better training. We can talk about 80+mpw, double threshold and so on but a lot of it is just low hanging fruit like running 60mpw instead of 40. And it feels like we have more kids starting to train seriously at like 12/13 so that by the time they are 16, they can do that mileage and by the time they are 18 they have a couple of years of solid training in. They might not improve as much later but who cares when you are fast already.

No, that's not how it works in Kenya. You cannot get representation to get out of the country to compete in Europe without already being really, really good. It takes years of gradual development to get to 3:34 level. He had to get noticed and if you represent your age as multiple years younger than it actually is, you seem like a much better prospect. He was cranking away at it for years, I am sure, before he got good enough to get picked up. But seriously, look at some pictures of the two guys and tell me seriously you think they are the same age.

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pulsesports.ug

Youngster Cheruiyot fires warning shots to senior athletes after successful transition

Pulse Sports

Cheruiyot, 18, shocked the senior athletes when he took top honours after clocking a new Personal Best time of 3:32.01 over the 1500m race.

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He ran 1:47 this year.

Great talent but don’t discount the fact that one of the main reasons jakob is in this spot right now is that he never gets hurt. I think a lot of that is because he does have those years of methodical, high-level training behind him. So to me, Laros throttling up on intensity and volume could be high reward but also maybe more risk if his body isn’t quite ready. That’s really what makes the difference at this level.

So you think he has gotten slower in the 800 since 2020?

What you’re missing is that 6, 7 and 8 months ago Reynold Cheruiyot was running 13:04, getting second at World Juniors XC and getting second at Kenyan Juniors XC Trials. This was off the back of running 7:38 in a tactical 3K a year ago. These are all data points that show excellent strength which is merely a projection for Laros. Again I think Cheruiyot is basically a season ahead of Laros developmentally but he was really strong last year based on his race in Zagreb.

No, sorry man. That is the case for some athletes but Kenyans have a school system, and plenty of athletes could reasonably be identified at a young age competing locally. Especially if both parents were athletes and they come from a talent-rich area. Your assumptions about Cheruiyots age are merely assumptions. Why would it take him “years” in his early-20s to grind to a 3:34? How would you explain if he was in school until 2021 which we have no reason to disbelieve. Because the other way to get notice is to win in the AK weekend meets. If you run under 3:37/13:40 you get signed like Brian Komen did this year.

Basically this is blatant confirmation bias from you. You start with the notion that he is 23 let’s say. You work backwards to say the reason he doesn’t have results going back to 2018 is because he’s a mediocre talent who grinded for years while weirdly avoiding showcasing his talent. You operate under the assumption that the only way one gets out of Kenya is lying about your age to find management. But the honest truth is he got into the Kip Keino meet in 2021 and immediately got mgmt because his talent/youth was evident. By 2022, he was having a go at the senior level and was a fraction from making the Kenyan team which is a level the journeyman grinders may never achieve. With the opportunities he’s gotten this year he’s progressed a huge amount which belies that this is some stagnating mid-20s guy. And no those photos of a straining Cheruiyot vs a relaxed Laros don’t reveal a whole lot.

I bolded the part that shows you can’t be reasoned with on this topic.

Rogers has a couple of medals to thank for it. I guess you prefer she ran like Reekie/Goule? The 800 is a silly comparison anyway.

But to your point, I agree Nordas ran a race not suited to win. Much like Nick Willis often did. I’d say the same for Hocker. And yes Laros ran more of a race to win. But you asserted that Hocker could do no better than mid-pack with his tactics which we seemingly agree is false. Nordas got 3rd and Hocker could’ve too.
To be clear I have no issues with how Laros ran. But I also don’t with Hocker.

You call it confirmation bias but he does not look 18 or 19 at all. There is a long history of age cheating in Kenyan athletics. There is only around a 50% rate of hospital births and legal registration of birth certificates, as I showed very recently here, is still very limited. He had every incentive to identify as 17/18 because that got him the ticket to Europe and talent alone doesn't get you to 3:34. That takes years of training. Even Hobbs Kessler had been running throughout high school before his 3:34 and he was a sub-4:10 miler type the previous year, in a time trial. You can go back and look at phenom after phenom in Kenya and see their best times within two years of making it internationally because they have to be close to a peak to get out if they're track runners.

Noah Ngeny, 20 when he ran 3:28.73 and 21 years old when he ran his 1500 pr and won the Olympic gold. Out of the sport by 2001-2.

Ronald Kwemoi, still lasted at 18 when he ran his pr 3:28.81.

Daniel K. Komen, 21 when he ran his pr of 3:29.02, ran 3:29.72 at 20.

Silas Kiplagat lasted a few years but he was listed at 20 when he ran his second best time of 3:29.27 (he eventually ran 3:27.64 at 24). The IAAF lists a 1500 in Kenya of 3:39.1 at altitude at 5,000 feet for the previous year at 19 and that is it. At 27, he ran 3:32 and then never broke 3:40 again. How many people at the top are done by 28 years old?

Daniel Komen, 3:29.46, his lifetime pr, at age 21.

Augustine Choge 3:29.47, his lifetime pr, at 22.

Caleb Ndiku, 3:29.50, his lifetime pr, at age 20.

Nixon Chepseba, age 21 when he ran his lifetime pr of 3:29.77.

Need I go on? There have been some Kenyan athletes who had reasonable listed ages when they ran their top times, guys like Timothy Cheruiyot, who ran his best in his mid 20s, and Laban Rotich ran his best at 29. But there are a lot of guys like Reynold Cheruiyot who burst on the scene at almost unbelievable ages with no track record of performances leading up to that point and indeed many are older than they say. So, we can't just predict a host of major improvements for them. As seen above, all of the Kenyan 1500m prodigies under 3:30 fizzled out early.