does anybody know if he has lost weight over the last two years? how much difference can gray area stuff make, if you are on something that sheds that 10 pound layer of useless weight?
Can you imagine this Armstrong clown at one of these LetsRun meetups and he tried to pull off this shtick in person? I might even show up if I knew this clown would appear.
Lol, you'd be fighting an elderly person. There is no shtick, he's just senile.
The thought of being assailed by a group of skinny old runners is terrifying. Well, maybe not.
It was likely a 1:49 last 800 with 56/52pt splits. You can say lactic all you want, but running a 52 last 400 in a 3:29 race is a skill few have ever achieved.
52 is still within his wheelhouse. He openly admits he was rather surprised when he first broke 3:30. He very well may have been astonished how well the system finally worked.
He actually said was going to call it quits last year, after plateauing. But his coach said “give it two more years.” That last point I found rather curious.
After training under the system since his teens, why would his coach be so sure it just needs a couple more years to prove out? For example, was there some lactate data, projected out in time (in conjunction with more training volume) that showed he would eventually be a contender?
I don´t think he has been in the system since his teens. I think he started with the Ingebrigtsens in 2019 or 2020. Does someone know exactly when?
But it possibly takes some years to accustom to this kind of training. So the benefits will come later.
I just wrote what was incorrect. 5000? He did not improve at 5000 from -21 to -22. Still 13:15. Yes, and then we have the progress from may -22 to this year: 3:35 - 3.34 - 3.32 - 3.29 (first time he ran in a field with high speed). I also think he might get close to 12:50 next year. He is worth approx. 12:55 this year. And may well run sub 3:28.5 later this year. So what? Other than mechanical reasoning. No other empirical evidence than his times. And from there this strange reasoning of yours. But sure you are free to speculate. But that's all you got: your own personal specultations. Though not a very credible hypothesis; not even a null hypothesis.
There is an "hypothesis", you pompous ass. It is the kind of highly-questionable progression that Houlihan showed, a confirmed doper.
I enjoy your characterization and your "logic". And even if there might be a legitimate comparation, you can't conclude like you do. Logic again.
He actually said was going to call it quits last year, after plateauing. But his coach said “give it two more years.” That last point I found rather curious.
After training under the system since his teens, why would his coach be so sure it just needs a couple more years to prove out? For example, was there some lactate data, projected out in time (in conjunction with more training volume) that showed he would eventually be a contender?
Don't need to overcomplicate things - give it two more years means "you still might have a shot at making Paris so might as well hang round to see if you can make that team. Then you can say for the rest of your life that you're an Olympian."
Did you read what Nordas actually said,
“Gjert said that I have been going this far and if you’re this far just give it two more years. He guaranteed me the results will come just give it at least two more years and he guaranteed me.”
Does the not “overcomplicated” rationale you provided line up with what Narve actually said?
It makes a lot more sense that he switched to the 1500 because Gjert was no longer coaching Jakob more than anything. Either way the system is designed for an athlete to thrive at 1500 and up, and Nordas is way better at 5,000 too.
The reason that a 1500m in the heat is not as taxing as a 5000m is not reasonable?
As I was saying earlier, here is the reason for the switch to the 1500m, per Nordas’ own words:
LRC: When and why did you make the decision to focus on the 1500m?
Narve: Maybe half a half year ago because I’ve run the 5K in the Olympics 2021 and in the World Championships in Eugene last year as well, and to be honest I thought it was a bit too warm to run a 5k so I thought maybe the 1500m sounds a bit better to run when it’s warm and humid as it is in the summers everywhere you’re competing in the big championships.
Some have invoked Mo Katir, but Shelby is the correct answer and the similarities are undeniable. Once you see it, you can not unsee it. To whit: Misplaced Early-Career Focus: Both started with an event far from their ultimate home. Shelby was an 800m runner, Narve was messing around with Half Marathons/10Ks early on.
Age: Shelby was age 25 in her breakthrough season, Narve is 24 but turning 25 in a month. These are late ages for such a breakthrough in the 1500.
Early Pro Career/Background: Both were mildly successful 5,000m runners at age 22-23 with a coach they'd had for years. Shelby ran ~15:00 in 2016 and 2017 and made two global finals but was not competitive in her races on the DL/World level. Narve ran 13:16, missing out on global finals, and was not competitive in his races on the DL/World level. They had improved to this level, but seemingly stagnated.
Coaches: Both Gjert and Jerry Schumacher are ferociously loyal to their system (my way or the highway), and believers in very high volume relative to their athlete's event. They're of course both Western coaches with a track record of success, and to the point of these breakthroughs not involved in any athlete ever busted. However, both had an athlete show up as "Likely Doping" in the Fancy Bears hack (Jager and Henrik).
"Found New Event in the 1500": Both broke through in the 1500 after semi-mediocrity in the 5000, flashing huge kicks that stood out vs. the competition while setting massive PBs. Narve 3:36 to 3:29 and a medal. Shelby 4:03 to 3:57 with a huge kick in multiple DLs. Both went from also-rans on the DL to contenders for the win.
The Myth of the New Event Thesis: Sure both had newfound success at 1500 in their breakthrough year, but it wasn't merely finding their event. Nordas just advanced in the gauntlet 5,000 prelim on less than one day's rest as numerous fresher sub-13 runners got bounced. Shelby set an American record and ran 14:33 for the 5K in 2018. Both athletes made gigantic strides and would have been factors in their old event of the 5,000 had they stuck with it as primary event. We can reject the new event notion.
Explanations Behind Their Success: Both credited the accumulation of hard work most of all. Otherwise, they'd talk about marginal improvements in diet, more altitude, slightly more mileage and making their coach's system work better for themselves. Narve has talked about not feeling pressured to run with Jakob, more Gjert focus. There was no talk of anything radically different being done from one season to the next or overcoming major injuries etc. This is unlike a Mo Katir (younger, got a new coach, finally had support, affected by pandemic etc.) or Ciara Mageean (injuries, new coach etc.) for a couple of examples.
Conclusion: There is probably more I am missing, and I want to be clear I don't 100% know/think Nordas is doping or anything like that. But I think if you examine every aspect of it, there is no more comparable situation out there. Pretty much every aspect of their rise and breakthroughs is identical. I like Nordas' personality and would like to believe his breakthrough is 100% clean. I felt the same with Shelby, but was always dubious of it at the time.
I´m surprised that you THL as one of the serious posters here now begin to accuse specific athletes of doping. I´m also surprised that John Wesley Harding is doing the same.
I am never accusing named athletes of doping and this is for 2 reasons:
1. I can´t know with certainty that an athlete is doping. I think it is the same with you and all other posters here.
2. An athlete CAN´T PROVE THAT HE IS NOT DOPING SO IT IS UNFAIR TO ACCUSE HIM.
-------------------------
When this is said I will, however, try to put your accusations into context (AND REMEMBER I AM NOT ACCUSING ANYONE OF DOPING).
You compare Nordaas to Shelby Houlihan. BUT HAVE YOU EVER SCRUTINIZED HOULIHAN´S AMERICAN TEAM MATES´ IMPROVEMENTS (NEITHER THE TEAM MATES NOR THE TRAINER HAVE EVER BLAMED HOULIHAN FOR HER DOPING OFFENCE). Don´t you think that would be more relevant?
Houlihan´s close training partner Karissa Schweizer improved with 8.5 sec in the 1500m from 2019 to 2020 and with more than 17 seconds in the 5000m from 2018 to 2019 and with further almost 19 sec to 2020.. In 2021 and 2022 she ran much slower. (She was one of my favorites).
Mo Ahmed improved in his high twenties with almost 11 seconds in the 5000m from 2019 to 2020.
Grant Fisher improved in the 5000m with about 15.5 sec from 2021 to 2022. This year he has lost his good shape.
These 5000m improvements seems to be more dramatic than the 10 sec explosion Nordaas according to you have made in the 5000m from last year.
Disclaimer: As in every serious "scientific" investigation I will declare that I have no relation to any of the parties. I origin from a Nordic country other than Norway but have lived in the south of Europe for many years.
When this is said I will, however, try to put your accusations into context (AND REMEMBER I AM NOT ACCUSING ANYONE OF DOPING).
You compare Nordaas to Shelby Houlihan. BUT HAVE YOU EVER SCRUTINIZED HOULIHAN´S AMERICAN TEAM MATES´ IMPROVEMENTS (NEITHER THE TEAM MATES NOR THE TRAINER HAVE EVER BLAMED HOULIHAN FOR HER DOPING OFFENCE). Don´t you think that would be more relevant?
LOL
Thoughtsleader also said he didn't accuse anyone. Observations are observations. For sure no objective observer trusts any BTC runner anymore, if they ever did.
But consider this: with 20 - 50% at the global championship level doping, and athlete X being one of those select few with an especially suspicious progression, pointing out 3 - 6 other, partly more, suspicious athletes, doesn't really help athlete X.
More food for thought: look at the 1500 at the current WC with its 58 runners. Now the math: 20 - 50% dopers means 12 - 29 dopers. Who do you think are the most suspicious 12 - 29 athletes? There were 3 medalists among the 12 finalists...
It was likely a 1:49 last 800 with 56/52pt splits. You can say lactic all you want, but running a 52 last 400 in a 3:29 race is a skill few have ever achieved.
52 is still within his wheelhouse. He openly admits he was rather surprised when he first broke 3:30. He very well may have been astonished how well the system finally worked.
To add, per the words of Nordas:
“I can guarantee you I’m the slowest sub-3:30 guy in history. I think I’m not able to run faster than 1:47 for 800m.”
Per the WA 1500m Championship race analysis, Nordas’ last 800m was 1:48.77.
52 is still within his wheelhouse. He openly admits he was rather surprised when he first broke 3:30. He very well may have been astonished how well the system finally worked.
He actually said was going to call it quits last year, after plateauing. But his coach said “give it two more years.” That last point I found rather curious.
After training under the system since his teens, why would his coach be so sure it just needs a couple more years to prove out? For example, was there some lactate data, projected out in time (in conjunction with more training volume) that showed he would eventually be a contender?
I don´t think he has been in the system since his teens. I think he started with the Ingebrigtsens in 2019 or 2020. Does someone know exactly when?
But it possibly takes some years to accustom to this kind of training. So the benefits will come later.
Per the words of Nordas in the LRC interview:
“…it’s also correct that I started as a half marathon runner when I joined the group back in 2014, that was the main goal, just running half marathons locally.”
And elsewhere in the interview: “…I have been working this hard for 10 years”
52 is still within his wheelhouse. He openly admits he was rather surprised when he first broke 3:30. He very well may have been astonished how well the system finally worked.
To add, per the words of Nordas:
“I can guarantee you I’m the slowest sub-3:30 guy in history. I think I’m not able to run faster than 1:47 for 800m.”
Per the WA 1500m Championship race analysis, Nordas’ last 800m was 1:48.77.
What could Nordas run for an all-out 800m right now? That would tell you something.
Don't need to overcomplicate things - give it two more years means "you still might have a shot at making Paris so might as well hang round to see if you can make that team. Then you can say for the rest of your life that you're an Olympian."
Did you read what Nordas actually said,
“Gjert said that I have been going this far and if you’re this far just give it two more years. He guaranteed me the results will come just give it at least two more years and he guaranteed me.”
Does the not “overcomplicated” rationale you provided line up with what Narve actually said?
So does he mean the results are going to come in 2025?
Disclaimer: As in every serious "scientific" investigation I will declare that I have no relation to any of the parties. I origin from a Nordic country other than Norway but have lived in the south of Europe for many years.
Oh, so you downvote my answer? Containing facts, to answer your question, yet you want to come on here and lecture the board when it is apparent you have not done basic research on the topic?
What could Nordas run for an all-out 800m right now? That would tell you something.
What is more telling is what Nordas can run at the end of a 3:30 race, which he just showed us.
Sorry to be glib, but he is repeatedly trying to say his open 800m is probably not much faster; that instead, he is just slowing down less, at the end of the race, than the other 1500m ‘faster’ guys.
What is more telling is what Nordas can run at the end of a 3:30 race, which he just showed us.
Sorry to be glib, but he is repeatedly trying to say his open 800m is probably not much faster; that instead, he is just slowing down less, at the end of the race, than the other 1500m ‘faster’ guys.
Per Nordas,
“I’ve always looked at running 3:29 as you have to have some sort of talent. I’m not sure, I think I’ve been doing the best training possible. However, [28] people can run faster than me, and if they would have done the exact same things as I’ve done the past couple of years, they would be better to be honest.”
What is more telling is what Nordas can run at the end of a 3:30 race, which he just showed us.
Sorry to be glib, but he is repeatedly trying to say his open 800m is probably not much faster; that instead, he is just slowing down less, at the end of the race, than the other 1500m ‘faster’ guys.
Gee, I wonder how he does that, when most of them will be doped?
Sorry to be glib, but he is repeatedly trying to say his open 800m is probably not much faster; that instead, he is just slowing down less, at the end of the race, than the other 1500m ‘faster’ guys.
Gee, I wonder how he does that, when most of them will be doped?