Texas Pete wrote:
There haven't been all that many 6th years competing and most of the 5th years would have had 5th years anyway. The extra COVID runners in NCAA can't come close to accounting for the improvements in time.
The NCAA data is actually pretty clear. For a good-but-not-great NCAA runner, it's about 1 second per 400m for the mile, 3K, 5K. Take any point of comparison of this level of runner--100th best NCAA time, last outdoor regional qualifier, etc. That's what you get.
So, I think a 4:00 miler at BU last week was the same caliber athlete as a 4:04 miler at BU in 2019.
Personally I don't buy the Covid senior arguments anymore. Yes, there are Covid 5th and 6th years. I just personally don't think that can be the main reason why there's a drastic increase in fast mile times when the timeline perfectly corresponds to the release of an insanely innovative piece of footwear technology.
It would be interesting to see someone figure out how many of the sub 4 mile times in the NCAA in the last couple years were Covid seniors and compare it to pre-covid years.
How many more years are we going to have Covid seniors anyway? Current 4th years were freshman in spring 2020... They'll have eligibility for outdoor, and maybe XC? So, at least a couple more years?
Also, I don't really get the idea about people being eager or antsy to race because of Covid carrying all the way to 2023. Like, yeah I get it for 2021 maybe, but by now we've had a couple of years of competition, I don't think that logic still works.