I admire Elon's engineering and business skills. And I'm very concerned about the environment so I'm glad that Elon and JB Straubel turned the world on to EVs.
There is a lot I don't like about Elon, but since he became the world's richest man he has become the target of a lot of misguided criticism from the left. And that is unproductive if your goal is to save the planet for our grandchildren.
I agree with this. Musk was pretty well liked until he started voicing his political opinion. He’s clearly a genius, maybe even on the spectrum.
You can’t really look at EV sales today. Ford has been at it really less than 2 years, and the supply chain issues will be resolved. The F150 Lightning and eventually an EV Bronco will eventually get to Tesla numbers.
GM has the hummer which is out of reach for most buyers, but the Silverado will be their mass production EV truck.
Tesla is an amazing success story. However, it has its issues. You failed to mention the Tesla Q2 numbers missed expectations and were significantly below Q1 numbers. The Cybertruck and Semi are both late to production and still nowhere to be seen. Many owners complain about overall quality (panel gaps, interior creaks, and general build quality issues).
That said Teslas get great overall reviews from car magazines. The speed, range, and driving experience are all best in class. However, the big guys are catching up quickly and the other niche EV players are giving consumers some real good alternatives to Tesla (Rivian and Lucid). Everything will have to meet or exceed expectations for Tesla to remain the most valuable car company in the world.
I admire Elon's engineering and business skills. And I'm very concerned about the environment so I'm glad that Elon and JB Straubel turned the world on to EVs.
There is a lot I don't like about Elon, but since he became the world's richest man he has become the target of a lot of misguided criticism from the left. And that is unproductive if your goal is to save the planet for our grandchildren.
I agree with this. Musk was pretty well liked until he started voicing his political opinion. He’s clearly a genius, maybe even on the spectrum.
You can’t really look at EV sales today. Ford has been at it really less than 2 years, and the supply chain issues will be resolved. The F150 Lightning and eventually an EV Bronco will eventually get to Tesla numbers.
GM has the hummer which is out of reach for most buyers, but the Silverado will be their mass production EV truck.
Tesla is an amazing success story. However, it has its issues. You failed to mention the Tesla Q2 numbers missed expectations and were significantly below Q1 numbers. The Cybertruck and Semi are both late to production and still nowhere to be seen. Many owners complain about overall quality (panel gaps, interior creaks, and general build quality issues).
That said Teslas get great overall reviews from car magazines. The speed, range, and driving experience are all best in class. However, the big guys are catching up quickly and the other niche EV players are giving consumers some real good alternatives to Tesla (Rivian and Lucid). Everything will have to meet or exceed expectations for Tesla to remain the most valuable car company in the world.
Yeah. I don’t think anyone here is arguing that the legacy car manufacturers WON’T pass Tesla in EV sales. It’s just a matter of when will they. Will it be 2-3 years like a lot of experts are now saying or will it be 5, 10 or longer.
I admire Elon's engineering and business skills. And I'm very concerned about the environment so I'm glad that Elon and JB Straubel turned the world on to EVs.
There is a lot I don't like about Elon, but since he became the world's richest man he has become the target of a lot of misguided criticism from the left. And that is unproductive if your goal is to save the planet for our grandchildren.
Hope you got in early. I feel bad for all the bag holders who bought TSLA over $1200. This is a $300-400 stock IMO. Model Y is so uncomfortable in the back, I don't know how anyone can sit in it. You feel every little bump in the road, it's like there's no suspension. My used RAV4 is more comfortable. That's ridiculous that a 67k vehicle has horrible seats. All that talk about saving the planet is BS. Lithium mines and BTC mining destroy the planet and it takes fossil fuels to produce the EVs. I would have more respect for Tesla bulls if they were honest and stopped hyping the planet saving BS. What will happen when all these used Tesla are off the road, will the batteries be recycled or will they rot and pollute the Earth?
I'm not a huge fan of Musk's politics, but we should set the record straight.
The idea that he hates his workers is just silly. He pays them better than union wages and gives them stock options on top of that, even for hourly workers. He does demand that everyone work very hard and exhibit tremendous dedication. And he sets an example by working harder and longer than anyone else.
As to how he got his fortune, he made is first millions when he helped to create PayPal. Then he put every cent he had into Tesla and SpaceX. He went from having something like $180 million to being completely broke. Tesla did take some government loans and then paid them back early, with interest.
In contrast, GM still owes the taxpayers billions.
You forgot the part about shafting the founder of Tesla after investing a majority stake.
Elon is one of the founders of Tesla.
Eberhard was removed from the company by unanimous vote of the board.
Tesla faces billions of dollars in losses from its new plants, supply chain problems and Covid lockdowns — enough for CEO Elon Musk to mention the possibility of bankruptcy in a recent interview.
Maybe legacy automakers overtake Tesla in total annual EV sales.
But that may only happen by them selling fewer gas cars as the market changes and EVs outsell gas cars.
If Tesla has a smaller share of a bigger market, that’s still potential growth and they could be doing well.
Would you rather have 75% of a million or 25% of a billion?
Tesla's market share will definitely get smaller. That's just simple math. As more EVs sell in the market, Tesla's EV market share can only go down.
For instance, say in the first year Tesla sells 100 EVs and the rest sell 0. Then the next year, Tesla sells 1000 EVs and the rest sell 100. Tesla sold 10x the number of EVs but its market share goes down from 100% to 90%.
As you point out, EV market share is not what's really important. Automobile market share is the big kahuna.
I looked up the top selling models of vehicles in the US. The top three were pickups. The #4 was the Toyota Camry. The base Camry has an MSRP of $27k. The cheapest Tesla has an MSRP of $47k.
EVs need to close this gap to become attractive to the typical US car buyer.
The big question is whether EVs are scalable. Right now, based on battery limitations... cost, size, time to charge, range... EVs are not scalable. They are niche vehicles. EV advocates say new battery technology will solve these problems. I'm not so sure... at least not for the next 20 years.
Batteries are a mature technology, just like the ICE engine is mature technology. Advances in the future are likely to be incremental, not disruptive breakthroughs.
The Tesla Model 3 has approximately the same total cost of ownership of a Camry. The only problem is the initial cost of the Tesla is higher, so some can't afford that initial cost.
All the technical limitations of batteries have been broken, including cost. That's why EV sales growth is through the roof. Tesla's profit margin on vehicles is over 25%. So there is plenty of room to lower prices when supply finally catches up with demand.
The only thing left to solve is production capacity. And battery factories are popping up everywhere all over the world.
Batteries are not mature at all. I hear about new breakthroughs every day. But the internal combustion engine is close to its limits.
I admire Elon's engineering and business skills. And I'm very concerned about the environment so I'm glad that Elon and JB Straubel turned the world on to EVs.
There is a lot I don't like about Elon, but since he became the world's richest man he has become the target of a lot of misguided criticism from the left. And that is unproductive if your goal is to save the planet for our grandchildren.
I agree with this. Musk was pretty well liked until he started voicing his political opinion. He’s clearly a genius, maybe even on the spectrum.
You can’t really look at EV sales today. Ford has been at it really less than 2 years, and the supply chain issues will be resolved. The F150 Lightning and eventually an EV Bronco will eventually get to Tesla numbers.
GM has the hummer which is out of reach for most buyers, but the Silverado will be their mass production EV truck.
Tesla is an amazing success story. However, it has its issues. You failed to mention the Tesla Q2 numbers missed expectations and were significantly below Q1 numbers. The Cybertruck and Semi are both late to production and still nowhere to be seen. Many owners complain about overall quality (panel gaps, interior creaks, and general build quality issues).
That said Teslas get great overall reviews from car magazines. The speed, range, and driving experience are all best in class. However, the big guys are catching up quickly and the other niche EV players are giving consumers some real good alternatives to Tesla (Rivian and Lucid). Everything will have to meet or exceed expectations for Tesla to remain the most valuable car company in the world.
I agree with most of what you said, except you have mis-characterized the Q2 numbers.
The Q2 numbers only missed initial expectations because the Shanghai factory was closed for much of the quarter due to the covid lockdowns. Once back up, Tesla had its highest production month ever in the month of June.
Cybertruck and Semi will rely on Tesla's new 4680 batteries. The ramp for 4680 cells is going slower than expected, but I think you will see both vehicles go into production next year.
IMO, the big guys are not catching up. They are falling further behind.
Ford and VW are doing a decent job trying to make the transition. They might avoid bankruptcy.
Hope you got in early. I feel bad for all the bag holders who bought TSLA over $1200. This is a $300-400 stock IMO. Model Y is so uncomfortable in the back, I don't know how anyone can sit in it. You feel every little bump in the road, it's like there's no suspension. My used RAV4 is more comfortable. That's ridiculous that a 67k vehicle has horrible seats. All that talk about saving the planet is BS. Lithium mines and BTC mining destroy the planet and it takes fossil fuels to produce the EVs. I would have more respect for Tesla bulls if they were honest and stopped hyping the planet saving BS. What will happen when all these used Tesla are off the road, will the batteries be recycled or will they rot and pollute the Earth?
I started investing in Tesla at $86 per share (split-adjusted). So I've done pretty well.
There is no way to justify a $300 stock price without a global depression. Tesla makes far too much money and its growth prospects are astronomical.
I don't understand your problem with the seats. It's something most people rave about in the Tesla. The Model Y has a lot more rear seat leg room than the ID4 your ordered. Are you sure you weren't sitting in a Model 3 when you decided you didn't like the back seats? That I would understand as the Model 3 is a little cramped back there.
The batteries will indeed be recycled. According to Tesla, 100% of the battery material can be recovered, and they are already doing this.
Yeah. I don’t think anyone here is arguing that the legacy car manufacturers WON’T pass Tesla in EV sales. It’s just a matter of when will they. Will it be 2-3 years like a lot of experts are now saying or will it be 5, 10 or longer.
I am. I'm arguing legacy car manufacturers will never pass Tesla in EV sales. If anyone does it, it will be the Chinese.
In the next few years, the company that has the most market share will, for the most part, be the company with the best supply of batteries.
So if you want to know what market share will look like in the future, check out the capacity of their battery procurement.
And if you look at the rosy projections by the automakers themselves, nobody expects to make as many as Tesla. It's not even close.
For instance, there have been recent articles about how VW's CEO says they will catch Tesla in EV sales by 2025. But VW also says only 20% of their sales will be electric by then. That would be about 1.8 million EVs in 2025. Tesla will sell almost that many in 2022.
Batteries are a mature technology, just like the ICE engine is mature technology. Advances in the future are likely to be incremental, not disruptive breakthroughs.
1) Lithium ion batteries have dropped 97% in price over the past three decades. That won't continue indefinitely, but prices are still dropping quickly.
2) Lithium ion batteries are currently at about half of their theoretical capacity.
3) There exists a prototype battery technology that allows charging to 80% capacity in under 10 minutes.
4) Supply chains for battery materials and production capacity are increasing at a crazy rate.
It is absurd to say we are anywhere near "mature technology" status for battery technology.
Many owners complain about overall quality (panel gaps, interior creaks, and general build quality issues).
This is one of the most significant issues that could ultimately doom Tesla. Currently, they are the major player in the market. Once other car manufacturers enter this market, Tesla cannot produce $70K cars with so many quality issues and expect customers to purchase their products when a comparable product is available without all the issues. .
It is a difficult issue to fix, but must be fixed if Tesla expects to remain competitive.
Many owners complain about overall quality (panel gaps, interior creaks, and general build quality issues).
This is one of the most significant issues that could ultimately doom Tesla. Currently, they are the major player in the market. Once other car manufacturers enter this market, Tesla cannot produce $70K cars with so many quality issues and expect customers to purchase their products when a comparable product is available without all the issues. .
It is a difficult issue to fix, but must be fixed if Tesla expects to remain competitive.
I think the panel gap issue is way overblown. And to a large extent this is being addressed through gigacastings, which no other automaker has started using yet.
You are correct that there is no comparable product available at present.
Many owners complain about overall quality (panel gaps, interior creaks, and general build quality issues).
This is one of the most significant issues that could ultimately doom Tesla. Currently, they are the major player in the market. Once other car manufacturers enter this market, Tesla cannot produce $70K cars with so many quality issues and expect customers to purchase their products when a comparable product is available without all the issues. .
It is a difficult issue to fix, but must be fixed if Tesla expects to remain competitive.
This is also a limitation of their “no dealership” strategy. There is no incentive for Tesla to deliver a quality, clean car to a customer who had been waiting for months or years for delivery. As screwed up as the dealership model is, a person is far less likely to buy a car from a dealership that didn’t have brakes, was unclean/scuffed up, or poorly built - especially if they test drove and inspected that vehicle.
Unless Tesla fixes those issues, it will be sooner rather than later when the other car manufacturers relegate Tesla to a niche car manufacturer. It’s inevitable they they will be surpassed, but fixing those issues would push it further into the future.
This is one of the most significant issues that could ultimately doom Tesla. Currently, they are the major player in the market. Once other car manufacturers enter this market, Tesla cannot produce $70K cars with so many quality issues and expect customers to purchase their products when a comparable product is available without all the issues. .
It is a difficult issue to fix, but must be fixed if Tesla expects to remain competitive.
This is also a limitation of their “no dealership” strategy. There is no incentive for Tesla to deliver a quality, clean car to a customer who had been waiting for months or years for delivery. As screwed up as the dealership model is, a person is far less likely to buy a car from a dealership that didn’t have brakes, was unclean/scuffed up, or poorly built - especially if they test drove and inspected that vehicle.
Unless Tesla fixes those issues, it will be sooner rather than later when the other car manufacturers relegate Tesla to a niche car manufacturer. It’s inevitable they they will be surpassed, but fixing those issues would push it further into the future.
"A car that didn't have brakes"? What are you smoking?
When you go to Tesla to pick up your car you do an inspection. If it's not satisfactory you don't have to take delivery.
Buying a car from Tesla is about 1000 times better than getting it from a sleazy dealership. You just order your car on the internet and pick it up when it's ready. No haggling. No pressure. No BS.
The only problem with buying from Tesla is the wait. Tesla's cars are so popular that the waiting list is very long. But if you were right and the "no dealership" strategy was turning buyers away then the waiting list would not be an issue.
This is one of the most significant issues that could ultimately doom Tesla. Currently, they are the major player in the market. Once other car manufacturers enter this market, Tesla cannot produce $70K cars with so many quality issues and expect customers to purchase their products when a comparable product is available without all the issues. .
It is a difficult issue to fix, but must be fixed if Tesla expects to remain competitive.
I think the panel gap issue is way overblown. And to a large extent this is being addressed through gigacastings, which no other automaker has started using yet.
You are correct that there is no comparable product available at present.
What is not overblown is Tesla's reliability problems. Consumer Reports ranked 29 automobile manufacters as far as reliability and Tesla came in 28th. In other words Telsa is the second worst car maker in terma of reliability. They just are not reliable. Far from it.
The reliability issues with Teslas are the cabin electronics.
They have fewer moving parts with the power train, which is good, but all of those computer systems leads to more areas that can wrong in that area.
In general, a car with fewer bells and whistles will have fewer things that can wrong. If you want reliability get a car without power windows, locks, sunroof, navigation, touch screens, etc.
But all new cars are trending to have those even if they are gas powered.
I think the panel gap issue is way overblown. And to a large extent this is being addressed through gigacastings, which no other automaker has started using yet.
You are correct that there is no comparable product available at present.
What is not overblown is Tesla's reliability problems. Consumer Reports ranked 29 automobile manufacters as far as reliability and Tesla came in 28th. In other words Telsa is the second worst car maker in terma of reliability. They just are not reliable. Far from it.
It is way overblown. Otherwise, it would effect customer satisfaction.
But Tesla is ranked #1 in customer satisfaction by Consumer Reports, JD Power, and Zutobi.
The reliability issues with Teslas are the cabin electronics.
They have fewer moving parts with the power train, which is good, but all of those computer systems leads to more areas that can wrong in that area.
In general, a car with fewer bells and whistles will have fewer things that can wrong. If you want reliability get a car without power windows, locks, sunroof, navigation, touch screens, etc.
But all new cars are trending to have those even if they are gas powered.
Toyotas and Hondas come with power windows, locks, sunroofs, navigation, touch screens, etc., and they are extremely reliable.
What is not overblown is Tesla's reliability problems. Consumer Reports ranked 29 automobile manufacters as far as reliability and Tesla came in 28th. In other words Telsa is the second worst car maker in terma of reliability. They just are not reliable. Far from it.
It is way overblown. Otherwise, it would effect customer satisfaction.
But Tesla is ranked #1 in customer satisfaction by Consumer Reports, JD Power, and Zutobi.
Should be "affect". Wouldn't want the grammar police to haul me away.
Anyway, Tesla makes the best cars you can buy. A Tesla does things no other car can do. The ultimate measure is customer satisfaction.
