Hobbs Should NOT have Turned Pro

He lives in Ann Arbor. Pretty sure he can get the college experience there. It’s been 8 months since he turned pro. Chill out. You seem overly invested in the immediate success of an 18 year old. Just chill out.

At least a year or two . I agree here . Kessler a great talent could of used the college scene for a couple of years

This exactly. You're not going to get the offers you would've if you run in college, part of the reason these contracts are so big is so the company can get in on your career early. I know Hunter got 200k a year for 10 years. It is never worth running in college to give up that kind of money. Also I've heard rumors that Adidas pays for college for their athletes separate of their contracts.

He's going to be fine.

Someone mentioned German Fernandez, that has to be one of the most unpredictable careers ever next to Alan Webb. How do you hit a wall that hard so early on. Dude was on fire 18-19 years old by 21-22 he wasn’t half the runner he had been and could never quite recover had some decent runs but way off his potential. German should have been a 3:29/12:50 guy but damn did he just crumble. Injuries just plagued him and he could never recover from it. Damn shame

[quote]holterskolter2 wrote:

Meanwhile: Evan Jager. Does anybody think he made the wrong decision? He transitioned well from high school to pro.

Jager is a great comparison. He’s been around for so long and out of sight that his origin story is forgotten. However, could it be argued that he stepped into a more talented group that fully pushed him and developed him to his potential? Hobbs has jumped into a very nice track club with a masters superstar and some very average fringe pro runners. Will they push him like Solinsky and Tegenkamp pushed Jager? Hobbs doesn’t seem like he needs college bonding. Whatever set up he has between fall and spring semesters, being in Flagstaff and Ann Arbor, will take time to see how it pans out. He seems like a cool, grounded kid. I wish him luck and hope he keeps up his climbing skill level.

My own perspective from my own experience is that the best situation for me is when I'm the best runner in a training group. That allows me to be a lot more relaxed and in control in hard workouts. The ones burning out in most training groups seem to be the ones reaching to try to catch up or make up the difference. Meanwhile runners like Kipchoge, Chelimo, Cheptegei, J. Ingebrigtsen, etc. stay at the top of their groups.

There is an equal or greater amount of pressure to run well in college. Pressure from your coach and team. Pressure to run fast and do well in/win races so you might be able to turn pro after college. Pressure to balance training, classes, social life, sleep/recovery etc. Pressure to survive a loaded race schedule without getting injured.

Hobbs may not be the NOW, but his pro deal is probably long term so he has many years to develop and get there.

He can mature, grow his aerobic strength, bond with his teammates or others, mature as a racer, etc etc etc etc. as a pro, and also get paid while he is doing it.

heres my take wrote:

Someone mentioned German Fernandez, that has to be one of the most unpredictable careers ever next to Alan Webb. How do you hit a wall that hard so early on. Dude was on fire 18-19 years old by 21-22 he wasn’t half the runner he had been and could never quite recover had some decent runs but way off his potential. German should have been a 3:29/12:50 guy but damn did he just crumble. Injuries just plagued him and he could never recover from it. Damn shame

German Fernandez gained weight and lost muscle tone at a young age and nobody mentions it. He either had a nutrition problem or a hormone problem.

Ferlic is 3:35/13:24 and he is 10 years older than Kessler. You are crazy to think that Ferlic can't put in better workouts than Kessler with 10 years of running under his belt.

Going pro before 20 is the most successful strategy globally. The people who win medals almost always are in the Olympic finals by age 21. There is no time to waste jogging heats of conference meets.

Just because he isn’t setting the world on fire in January doesn’t mean he made the wrong decision.

2/10

aztec the moronic wrote:

rojo wrote:

From a development aspect, I'm for athletes staying in college. That being said, this thread is crazy.

False. the rumor is he got north of 500k per year. Unless you come from big family money, getting a guarantee of a couple million bucks is not pocket change.

So let's say he's guaranteed 500k for 5 years, that's 2.5 million. Would you rather have 2.5 million or the opportunity to win 3-4 NCAA team championships?

I think it would be DUMB to take the money. That NCAA experience is priceless. You can make NIL money while in college to cover some of the loss, and if you run well that 500k contract will be there when you graduate.

Now he spends all his time with *****deleted by mods as it was off topic***** Nick Willis and an 80 year old coach. That doesn't sound fun.

Well done with the username

CarlyRaeJepsensMalort wrote:

I think the jury is still out on whether this was the right call **for his running development**. If he actually got the money people are saying then yes, he would be foolish to turn it down. What I don't get is why go down to Flagstaff and take classes at NAU anyway? Isn't it a mediocre/bad academic institution? If he's gonna be training a lot in Ann Arbor anyway why not get a better education at Michigan?

Of course its the right call.

It may not be the call you would make, but it is right for him.

Its his life not yours.

And NAU? Follow distance running and do some research

He is correct about the education. He went pro so why attend a crappy college?

Have to think his pro contract is heavily based off performance and not just a flat $500k.

Kessler could not turn this down if the numbers are real. It is Adidas that took the huge risk. Buying into German at 18 would have looked great for the first 2 years, but long term he was injury prone. Adidas basically said we will get a guy who trained hard only for part of one year and said hey you are the face of our distance brand in America. I have no idea how durable he will be, so it's a risky move for the company. But a no brainer for the runner. A certain percentage of really talented guys cannot stay healthy even as you assess their value by extrapolating their development from 4:20 to 3:50 equivalent based on a limited lifetime training volume. I think he is going to stay relatively healthy. I am sure that Nike was a bit scared about their investment in Evan Jager at certain points early in his career with them, but it paid huge dividends when the team around him figured out how to keep him training for most of his career. The same team could not keep Chris Derrick healthy despite his track record of healthy running being so much better than Evan's pre-Bowerman.

Bump...what ever happened to the Hoey bros?

His bank account says otherwise.