Antidisestablishmentarianism wrote:
Analysis of records:
Men's 100: 9.77
Powell or Gatlin will break this next year. The event had a big slump in 2003 but is back with vengeance. In Athens, a 9.89 by Crawford got him 4th.
Men's 200: 19.32
Probably never. Usain Bolt is a big, big talent, but his Pb is 19.93. Crawford has 19.79. There is no way they will be taking .61 and .47 seconds off their times respectively. I can't foresee anyone beating this for a LONG time unless the equivalent of a 200m running Bekele emerges from nowhere, and even that is unlikely considering Bekele had a mentor in Geb and there is no big figure in the 200 right now.
Men's 400- 43.18
Wariner will get this eventually. 400m also had a slump from 2001-2003 without MJ, but Wariner is unbelievable and will do great things.
Men's 800- 1:41.11
The men's 800 had its slump this year. Borzakovsky has run 1:42 and can't be past his prime. Bucher ran 1:42 but seems past his prime. Bungei and Yiampoy have 1:42's.
Basically you need a race where Khadevis Robinson takes it out in 48.6-49.0 (Kipketer's split was 49.00) and has 4-5 guys up his backside instead of lagging back. Get at least 2-3 to 600 in 1:15-point and the WR goes. Kipketer was so good that he needed no one with him, but no 800 man today is good enough to get it alone. If Borzakovsky stopped messing around with lagging in 8th until the last 800, he'd probably have run 1:42-1:43 this year.
Men's 1500- 3:26.00
Lagat no longer has El Guerrouj to chase, and while he may be a factor until Beijing, I doubt he will go under 3:26.
This record is very, very tough to break. If you need evidence, look at how many times Ramzi, Komen, and Lagat tried for it this summer. In Zurich they went through 400 in 53.42 and 800 in 1:49.78. They were absolutely trucking behind and they hit the bell still on pace at 2:32-point.
But when El Guerrouj ran this record he hit the bell in 2:32.78 and ran 53.22 for his last 400. That's wacko. No one today has that speed off such a fast pace. El Guerrouj went through 1200 in 2:44.75 in Rieti 2002 and MISSED the record. Because of how often this is run, in strength I put this record up there near Komen's 7:20 but a bit below MJ's 19.32. In the near future only El Guerrouj can take it lower.
Men's Mile- 3:43.13
Again, a great record. Ngeny also ran 3:43.40 but he is probably done. Bashir ran 3:47.98 and with guys like Komen, Lagat, Webb, Silva, Ramzi, Baala, and Mottram not quite fast enough for running 54-high for 3.75 laps but fast enough to possibly split a 3:28-high for 1500 and then hold on for dear life for the last 109.344m, this one may go.
Men's 3,000- 7:20.67
El Guerrouj alone can take this, and he tried once and failed the same year he broke the mile (3:43.13) and 2,000m (4:44.79).
Bekele will not break this. He has excellent basic speed no doubt (probably around 48 seconds for 400 based on his 23-point 200 in Lausanne 2 years ago) but he does not seem capable of a 3:29 1500 and a 3:46 mile a la Komen. Bekele is a 10,000m specialist unlike Komen who was perfect at 1500-3K and managed great 5K's as well.
Men's 2 mile- 7:58.61
If you can believe it, compared to the 3K this is "soft" but it would take a 3:45 miler to get it; perhaps El Guerrouj could do it as Komen and Ramzi are not strong enough to run longer and even Lagat running 12:59 was exhausted whereas El Guerrouj cruised a 12:50.24 in Ostrava.
Men's 5,000m- 12:37.35
Bekele takes it next year. He split 7:32 in Paris for 3K and a 2:28.97 (!) suicidal 3rd k, but if and when guys like Kipchoge, Shaheen, and Sihine (and El G) chop 4-5 seconds off their times he will have an incentive.
What made the 90's great were the battles between Geb and Komen in Zurich where a WR was virtually guaranteed provided that they stayed together in the late stages.
The physical dimensions of this record are becoming mind-boggling as the pace is now 4:03 per mile.
Men's 10,000m- 26:17.53
As awesome as this record is, and I think it's even better on a performance chart to Komen's 7:20, Bekele can take it again. He had pacing only until 5K, but if Sihine, Wanjiru, or Kemboi can push him into the later stages as Koech did to Tergat in 1997 (26:27.85) look out.
Men's Half-Marathon: 59:16 (59:05)
This event had a great year with both of Tergat's marks going.
Tergat himself managed a remarkable 59:10 last spring, so I say with Tadesse, Geb, Tergat, and Wanjiru out there, it could go soon enough.
Men's Marathon- 2:04:55
One word: Gebrselassie
Two more: London 2006
Women's records:
Sadly, the 100, 200, 400, 800, 1500, 3,000, and 10,000 will never be broken by clean athletes.
Those 7 records are held by just 4 people: Flo-jo, Koch, Kratochvilova, Junxia, and Qu.
Koch and Kratochvilova are jokes--Kratoch is a she-beast and literally looks like a man.
Koch came from doped up East Germany and there is no chance she ran cleanly.
Not to disrespect the deceased, but if you want to know about Flo-Jo, simply search for pictures pre-1984 and post-1984. You'll see it.
Qu and Wang Junxia are absurd. Renato speculated that they share male chromosomes and therefore are nearly like men physiologically, but even when Wang won OLY gold she NEVER even approached her WR again.
Breaking the 5K WR in the second half of a 10K WR tends to raise eybrows, as does the fact that WR's were broken in HEATS during Chinese nationals and by the same athletes within a 3-5 day period and again in Stuttgart back when drug testing was a bigger farce than it is today (if you can imagine that).
8:06 for 3K? Uh, no. That's 13:30 5K pace. Consider that Wang would be hanging onto Goucher and Broe if the latter two were having a bit of an off day in a 5,000. I don't think so.
The 5,000 run by Abeylgesse (14:24.68) will be broken by Defar or Dibaba.
Dibaba can go sub-30:00 in the 10K, and Paula or Dibaba will take the marathon WR (or perhaps one of the great Asian females who seem to be pounding out 2:19-2:22 times). Deena can certainly go under 2:20 as well, but 2:15:25 is another of those off-the-charts records.