GALEN RUPP entered in 10000m in Portland next week. What's he running?

I think there is a disconnect in this thread about what he could run versus what he will run. Assuming training is going well and he is rested enough, I think he can still time trial 27:15ish if he really wanted to. But I think based on how the race will play out and the context of his training he will go 27:52 for the win

If he's wearing the new super shoes, he'll improve on 26:44 for sure. What's 1%, 16 seconds, looks like a 26:28. 2% and the WR is his.

He will run the Olympic Standard minus a few seconds.

He is going to run the 10k at the trials while in the thick of marathon training, with no intention of running the 10k at the Olympics. And he will absolutely be competitive at the trials:

https://tracktimes.run/times/mens-10k/

...at least until 800 to go.

Slow Bro wrote:

This thread is wack. Rupp isn't entering a 10k to run 28+ minutes.

Will he DNS? Maybe! But if he starts, expect the Oly standard or better. He's not that old. His 2:09 at the trials was on a hilly course on a windy day, and he only did enough to win. He ran close to 60 flat on a bike path in a "race" with no stakes.

If he wants to keep the 10k in his back pocket, he will run the standard at this race. If there was a 10,000 meter race for Americans with a $1MM prize in three months, I'd put my money on Rupp winning it.

And of course you would lose your money. Galen can no longer outkick a runner like Grant Fisher and he sure as hell cannot run away from him anymore (in a 10000m race). Galen ran 26:44...7 years ago. That 28 year old Galen would win your hypothetical but this 35 year old version would not.

wazzu1452 wrote:

Hassan Mead in 2017 was the last American to beat Rupp at this distance.

Because Rupp was a marathoner trying to do a strong 10K with ZERO track work.

Track work is unimportant for the 10k.

hdejn wrote:

And of course you would lose your money. Galen can no longer outkick a runner like Grant Fisher and he sure as hell cannot run away from him anymore (in a 10000m race). Galen ran 26:44...7 years ago. That 28 year old Galen would win your hypothetical but this 35 year old version would not.

Huh, I didn't know Fisher had run 27:11 already. Yeah, he probably beats Rupp at this point in the 10k.

Someone else said they think Rupp can time trial 27:15 and I think that's absolutely the case. Maybe even faster if he really made it a priority to train for that event. But he's not closing fast off that kind of pace, it's true.

Who else is in the neighborhood of 27:00-27:15 in the US right now? I can't name anyone. Maybe Chelimo?

Slow Bro wrote:

hdejn wrote:

And of course you would lose your money. Galen can no longer outkick a runner like Grant Fisher and he sure as hell cannot run away from him anymore (in a 10000m race). Galen ran 26:44...7 years ago. That 28 year old Galen would win your hypothetical but this 35 year old version would not.

Huh, I didn't know Fisher had run 27:11 already. Yeah, he probably beats Rupp at this point in the 10k.

Someone else said they think Rupp can time trial 27:15 and I think that's absolutely the case. Maybe even faster if he really made it a priority to train for that event. But he's not closing fast off that kind of pace, it's true.

Who else is in the neighborhood of 27:00-27:15 in the US right now? I can't name anyone. Maybe Chelimo?

Woody Kincaid ran 27:12 and Ben True ran 27:14 this year.

hdejn wrote:

Slow Bro wrote:

Huh, I didn't know Fisher had run 27:11 already. Yeah, he probably beats Rupp at this point in the 10k.

Someone else said they think Rupp can time trial 27:15 and I think that's absolutely the case. Maybe even faster if he really made it a priority to train for that event. But he's not closing fast off that kind of pace, it's true.

Who else is in the neighborhood of 27:00-27:15 in the US right now? I can't name anyone. Maybe Chelimo?

Woody Kincaid ran 27:12 and Ben True ran 27:14 this year.

Isn't True just about as old as Rupp ? He's always been well-beaten in their H2H matchups as far as I can remember.

Kincaid is interesting. He's got that super fast 5k from a while back. Didn't know he'd run close to 27.

Mobot! wrote:

People predicting 27:30 seem way too optimistic. I'm thinking he runs about 28 minutes.

Agreed. If he runs 27:30 during a training block he's in 2:05 shape....

28:00 would be 4:30 pace and super encouraging . I bet he's got sub 28 in the back of his mind because he's competitive, but anything under 28:30 is solid.

ehehh wrote:

He will run the Olympic Standard minus a few seconds.

He is going to run the 10k at the trials while in the thick of marathon training, with no intention of running the 10k at the Olympics. And he will absolutely be competitive at the trials:

https://tracktimes.run/times/mens-10k/

...at least until 800 to go.

ahhh, this is a smart prediction. good call.

Slow Bro wrote:

hdejn wrote:

And of course you would lose your money. Galen can no longer outkick a runner like Grant Fisher and he sure as hell cannot run away from him anymore (in a 10000m race). Galen ran 26:44...7 years ago. That 28 year old Galen would win your hypothetical but this 35 year old version would not.

Huh, I didn't know Fisher had run 27:11 already. Yeah, he probably beats Rupp at this point in the 10k.

Someone else said they think Rupp can time trial 27:15 and I think that's absolutely the case. Maybe even faster if he really made it a priority to train for that event. But he's not closing fast off that kind of pace, it's true.

Who else is in the neighborhood of 27:00-27:15 in the US right now? I can't name anyone. Maybe Chelimo?

Maybe our best 10000m runner of the last couple years?

Oh Please wrote:

hdejn wrote:

This is NOT going to happen. Galen is not even capable of it.

You really think Rupp is not capable of the Olympic standard at 10000?

The only question is what is the purpose of this race. If it is for the standard, he will get it. No doubt in my mind. If it's just to mix things up and break up the monotony, he will run what he needs to be there the last lap. Can't say he will necessarily win if left to just a 400m kick though.

The purpose would be to get a pay bonus from his employer.

It would be funny as hell if he turns up and drops a 27-flat off of marathon training. I guess he'll run 27:40 but who knows for sure?

What Rupp CAN do and WILL do at this race are two different things. If he isn't tapering for it very much (likely), anything under 28:20 will likely accomplish his goals for this particular workout. I say 28:10 and a good day at the office.

just the fakks wrote:

wazzu1452 wrote:

Hassan Mead in 2017 was the last American to beat Rupp at this distance.

Because Rupp was a marathoner trying to do a strong 10K with ZERO track work.

Track work is unimportant for the 10k.

+1

Ron Clarke obliterated the WR with no track work besides races.

He's going to run the 10,000 my man.

I am with you. The truth is none of us know anything about Rupps training. He does not have an Instagram page where he posts what he’s having for dinner or what particular work out he is doing on a given day. He is not Colleen Quigley.

As a matter of fact, he never does this or is public in anyway. So we have no idea what kind of shape Rupp is in. But I do know this, he has no intention of showing up and placing second.

It will take sub 27:30 to win so bank on Rupp getting the Oly standard.

Underestimate Rupp at your own peril……..

I don't think he'll run the 10k at the Olympics, but I think he'll at least get the standard (27:33) out of the way so he has the option. I don't think he would waste his time on this for a mediocre 28+.

Galen will win this race. He'll get the standard. He may run the Trials. If he does, he'll win.

The real question is, will AlSal be in the stands wearing an oversized mask to disguise his identity?