Joshua Cheptegei's solo 3000m TT before Monaco. Is he ready to break Bekele's WR?

Notimpressed wrote:

Given how much he drafted behind Joshua, he barely outsprinted him in the last straight. If Barega pushed the pace, the reverse would have happened.

These guys have the kick because they are strong, but if the pace is fast enough, nobody will have anything left, Barega would crack if Joshua goes 60:xx lap after lap for 5000m, simple as that.

Barely? He was clearly faster and the gap only grew.

Barega has run 12:43, his record is better than Cheptegai record so in a fast race he would definitely have a chance and could follow Cheptegai pace and outkick him. It would depend on who has the better day probably but Barega would be favoured most often than not.

In a slower race, something like 13, or in a championship race with only a fast last 1000m, Cheptegai would not be the favourite at all. There are several Ethipians and some other runners who have a better last 400 than him in these conditions. He finished 7th in Shanghai and 4th in Lausanne (would have been 5th if Gebriweth did not miscount the laps)

We don't disagree on most points. Cheptegai is a great racer, the best one in 10 000m today and a serious contender at 5 000, but not the favourite given his qualities and the field he is facing. He is also intelligent and it showed in Doha where he held the lead at the last lap and forced Kejelcha on the outside for 300m.

That being said, championships races are rarely time trials and in the 5000m it often finish as a who has the better kicks of a group of 4-5 fast runners. 10 000m specialists often end up with that difficulty to overcome, because they have also to run the 10 000m and can't burn themselves or have the fresher legs depending on what event is first in the schedule.

I agree with all this. In a fast race, Cheptegei has the finish necessary to beat the best of the best if he hasn't had to do all the work. I wouldn't say his chief rivals (aside from Edris) have as lethal kicks as we might giving them credit for. Barega, Kejelcha, Chelimo, Gebrhiwet and Jakob can all close no doubt, but they're not on the Farah, prime Lagat, and Bekele level where you feel like a 52 is coming even off a good pace. I'd actually say Chelimo has shown the most flashes of it, but hasn't been consistent enough/fast enough to favor over Cheptegei.

seasoned ranker wrote:

j Cobb wrote:

Dumbest post of week. As if no one watched Jakob nearly beat one of the best 5000 kickers in Geb last year. ...in basically just as fast a race as the WC final.

It's Cheptegei that has no chance in a world 5000 final. He has not won a 5000 against intl opposition and most definitely has no kick. Jakob is a 3:30 runner and closes a 5000 in 53. Cheptegei is far behind. Almost like a JV kid compared to Jakob in the 1500. Only way Cheptegei does well in a 5000 is in a time trial.

Cheptegai won the Diamond League 5000m final last year dumb dumb.

Zurich was the DL Final? I just thought it was a regular DL race. Seemed like everyone treated it that way.

He didn't outkick anybody in that race really, but he was super strong and has tons of 5000 potential. I think his ideal range is probably 10,000 - marathon but like all the greats, he can still roll at the lesser distances for sure.

True, in a not so fast race, there are 4-5 guys who can outkick him in a 5000m. However if the pace is really hot, going for the wr, nobody touches Joshua in a 5000m. I think you agree, and if not he will prove it in Monaco

birdbeard wrote:

seasoned ranker wrote:

Cheptegai won the Diamond League 5000m final last year dumb dumb.

Zurich was the DL Final? I just thought it was a regular DL race. Seemed like everyone treated it that way.

He didn't outkick anybody in that race really, but he was super strong and has tons of 5000 potential. I think his ideal range is probably 10,000 - marathon but like all the greats, he can still roll at the lesser distances for sure.

Is that a real question? Yes, for the 5000m Zurich was the DL final. For some events it was Brussels.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

True, in a not so fast race, there are 4-5 guys who can outkick him in a 5000m. However if the pace is really hot, going for the wr, nobody touches Joshua in a 5000m. I think you agree, and if not he will prove it in Monaco

I don't think that he will get the record.

But in a very fast race he can win his chance are much higher than in a slow race, since the kick is not the main factor. But there are as well some other runner who have run very fast 5000 like Barega, Kejelacha, Gebriwhet, T.Bekele and now Mo Ahmed.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

At 2000m altitude, i have to say it's impressive, probably worth 7:27-7:28 at sea level.

I account a second/1k feet over 5k feet so 6560 ft, so around 13 seconds. But maybe around 11 seconds since he lives and trains at altitude. Even with a conservative estimate, you're looking at 7:30, but solo. Competition and rabbiting would put this towards 7:25-7:26, but Cheptegai ran his 12:50 road WR solo so he might just be a good solo runner (like K Klosterhaulfen last year with her 14:26). Considering his 10k background, I'd give him a 12:42.

douglas burke wrote:

Jakob Ingebritsen will stay right behind him until the last lap and then leave him in the dust in the Final 400

0000 / 10

NC Runner 34 wrote:

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

At 2000m altitude, i have to say it's impressive, probably worth 7:27-7:28 at sea level.

I account a second/1k feet over 5k feet so 6560 ft, so around 13 seconds. But maybe around 11 seconds since he lives and trains at altitude. Even with a conservative estimate, you're looking at 7:30, but solo. Competition and rabbiting would put this towards 7:25-7:26, but Cheptegai ran his 12:50 road WR solo so he might just be a good solo runner (like K Klosterhaulfen last year with her 14:26). Considering his 10k background, I'd give him a 12:42.

It's not 2000m it's 1200m. It was likely a 7:32-7:33 effort.

You must enter a username. wrote:

Jimmy Gs wrote:

So it seems Gressier is definitely running the 5000 too. Is he gunning for the Euro 5000 record?

it's not like he is an outstanding talent

yeah only 3rd best non african all time performance on 10k road. At 22yo with only 6 years of running. Sure he is average talent

And 7'48 was indoor which is worth at least 7'45 outdoor.

5000 ER is too hard for him but he can be sub 13'10 which is already outsanding for a non african.

He has just set a new PR on 1500 this week for his first race of the season. 3'37 in a local meet 3sec ahead of the 2nd. He is in good shape.

Impala31 wrote:

You must enter a username. wrote:

it's not like he is an outstanding talent

yeah only 3rd best non african all time performance on 10k road. At 22yo with only 6 years of running. Sure he is average talent

And 7'48 was indoor which is worth at least 7'45 outdoor.

5000 ER is too hard for him but he can be sub 13'10 which is already outsanding for a non african.

He has just set a new PR on 1500 this week for his first race of the season. 3'37 in a local meet 3sec ahead of the 2nd. He is in good shape.

We really need to stop touting these road records. First of all, they were reset very recently. Second, road courses, surfaces, etc are much too variable to compare to track times.

In addition he only started to run after high-school (make the Junior World XC team as a HS senior 100% playing soccer).

So he ran 13:18 (road) / 13:23(track) / 27'43(road) at age 22 (+ 3x Euro XC U20 champ) with only a few years of running.

Gives confidence on his potential for the future but 13 low is definitely the next logical step. No need to set over-expectations.

He just turned pro and started to run higher mileage.

Amory wrote:

Impala31 wrote:

yeah only 3rd best non african all time performance on 10k road. At 22yo with only 6 years of running. Sure he is average talent

And 7'48 was indoor which is worth at least 7'45 outdoor.

5000 ER is too hard for him but he can be sub 13'10 which is already outsanding for a non african.

He has just set a new PR on 1500 this week for his first race of the season. 3'37 in a local meet 3sec ahead of the 2nd. He is in good shape.

We really need to stop touting these road records. First of all, they were reset very recently. Second, road courses, surfaces, etc are much too variable to compare to track times.

The new shoes help for sure on roads but still very few non african can run sub 28' whatever10k race it is and whatever the shoes there wear. And Houilles 10k is not the fastest. Not 100% flat and sharp turns but great competition every time there.

Gressier is a huge talent. He will run sub 13 at one point in his career.

Do we have any more information on his training? Any more data points to use?

For now what we know is the timetable in Monaco.

5000m Women - 20:19

1500m Men - 20:57

5000m Men - 21:13

Sunset is at 20:35

Weather is expected to be between 23 and 27C during the men's 5000m (73-81F)

Massive heatwave incoming in August.

35+ degree during the nights.

Also we know some of the athletes in the 5000m

Joshua + 3 pacers

H.Ingebrigtsen

J.Wanders

J.Gressier

Y.Crippa

+3-5 others yet TBC

Henrik will go after his brothers' NR (13:02)

Wanders will try go as close to 13'

Gressier, the same as Wanders, with an eye on the French NR (12:58, seems a stretch)

Crippa will try break Antibo's NR (13:05)

- Jurrier Van Der Velden said Cheptegei's shape and training is better than ever before, so it must be good news.

- As for Wanders and Gressier i have all the training they did in this month building to Monaco

Julien Wanders (Iten,Kenya-2300m) - 170k/week

---------------------------------------------

25k Progressive Long Run (undulating) - 3:19/km (3:25->3:13/km)

2x3k w/2' rec + 2k w/2'30" rec + 4x1k w/3' rec

Times : 8'53"/8'49"/5'49"/2'47"/2'49"/2'46"/2'35"

5x800m + 5x400m + 3x400m + 400m

Recoveries : 2'/3'/4'/5'//1'/1'/1'/1'//3'/3' and 5' between sets

Times : 2'08/2'07/2'06/2'05/2'04//60"/60"/59"/59"/60"//58"/57"/57"//54"

13x2' fast/1'30" moderate (Fast @ 2:50/km / Moderate @ 3:27/km)

7k uphill tempo @ 3:37/km (+278m)

25k Long Run - 3:08/km

3x(4x500m) + 2x500m + 500m + 3x200m

Recoveries : 1'20"/2'/2' between reps + 5' between sets

Times : 1'18/1'18/1'17/1'16//1'18/1'18/1'18/1'17//1'18/1'18/1'17/1'18//

1'13/1'13//1'11//27"/27"/26"

2x2000m + 3x1600m + 3x1200m

Recoveries : 3' between all reps

Times : 5'44"/5'45"//4'30"/4'30"/4'31"//3'18"/3'18"/3'18"

4x(800m-600m-400m) + 2x300m + 2x200m

Recoveries : 3' in the set, 5' between sets, 2' between 300m/200m reps

Times : 2'07/1'33/60"//2'04/1'30/59"//2'06/1'32/59"//2'06/1'33/60"//

40"/40"//29"/28"

2000m Tempo + 4x2000m (Alternating fast lap/moderate lap) + 1000m + 2x200m

Recoveries : 5'//5'-6'//5'//45"

Times : 6'09//5'41/5'42/5'42/5'41//2'33//28"/28"

(2000s with laps of 63"/76"/63"/76"/63")

25k Progressive Long Run - 3:30/km (3:38->3:22/km)

Jimmy Gressier (Font-Romeu,France-1850m) - 130k/week

----------------------------------------------------

6x(15"/30"/45"/1') @ 2:40-3:00/km w/equal rest

11x100m w/50" rec (13"-14")

21x200m w/50" rec (29"-30")

15k @ 3:29/km + 2400m @ 2:46/km (after 40' break)

8x300m w/2' rec + 4x100 w/1' rec

Times : 39"/39"/38"/39"/39"/39"/40"/40"//15"/14"/14"/14"

8x400m w/1' rec (61"-63") + 8x300m w/1' rec (46"-48") + 4x100m w/1' rec (14")

3x1500m @ 2:55/km w/2' rec + 2x1000m @ 2:47/km w/2' rec + 2x800m @ 2:46/km

w/2' rec + 2x400m @ 2:45/km w/2' rec

9x100m w/1' rec (13"-14")

4x100m w/1' rec (13"-14") + 6x400m w/3' rec (56"/57"/56"/55"/54"/57")

4x(600m-400m-200m)

Recoveries : 1'30"/1' between reps + 2' between sets

Times : 1'34"/61"/29" // 1'35"/63"/30" // 1'31"/60"/28" // 1'34"/63"/28"

3x2400m @ 2:58/km w/2' moderate rec

12x100m (13"-14") w/2' rec + 4x200m (24"-25") w/2' rec

24.07.2020 - 1500m RACE - 3'37"35

3x(4x500m) + 2x500m + 500m + 3x200m

Recoveries : 1'20"/2'/2' between reps + 5' between sets

Times : 1'18/1'18/1'17/1'16//1'18/1'18/1'18/1'17//1'18/1'18/1'17/1'18//

1'13/1'13//1'11//27"/27"/26"

Why that isolated 500 there?