Nope. Trump has a chance, but it will require a very perfect storm. If we just look at the personal qualities of the two, the preference of Americans, and there is no monumental event between now and election day, then yes, Trump has no shot to win.
Where Trump has a shot is if...Biden dies or Biden has a debilitating stroke or some other such thing that actually renders him incapacitated (not this fever dream of yours that he has dementia). Beyond Biden dying or being incapaciated, there would have to be a TON of bad things happen before election day for Trump to win...we'd have to be in a deep recession, and/or involved in a very unpopular war (not just providing aid), or some sort of HUGE military failure, like a dirty bomb going off in the US or some other such HUGE thing. Or, aliens from another planet could come down here and force us to vote for Trump.
So, other than the exceptional things I mentioned, yes, Trump has no shot to win. He has less support than he did the last time he ran for President, and YES, Trump actually lost in 2020. While Trump won his primary elections, he didn't do so hot for a former President who still has loads of morons worshipping him. A good portion of conservatives have said they will never vote for Trump (even many who did so before), and even more have said they will not if he's a convicted felon, which he very will might be before election day.
So, to summarize...Trump has no shot to win unless there is an exceptional circumstance along the lines of what I mentioned above.
Trump can definitely win. The economy doesn't actually have to be bad. People just have to feel like it's bad which they currently do.
People ALWAYS feel like it is bad, but enough of them will actually know or find out before casting their vote. The 13 Keys talks about recession, not what people's FEELINGS are.
If you want some good news on the election front, it is this. Trump has done much much worse in actual voting than in the polls.
Combine that with the Dems doing better in special elections than predicted, and it's a pretty good setup.
Clearly there has been some demographic group not voting as they usually do. I'd guess it's suburban women departing the Trump train but not telling pollsters. But that's just a guess.
Maybe Republicans in general just say yeah yeah I'll vote for the rapist guy sure of course but on the day they get nauseated and stay home.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers · 12h According to the polls, Trump was meant to win: - Iowa by 53 points (he won by 30) - New Hampshire by 18 points (he won by 11) - South Carolina by 28 points (he won by 20) - Michigan by 62 points (he's up by 42) 4 states yields 4 examples of him dramatically underperformed polls
Trump can definitely win. The economy doesn't actually have to be bad. People just have to feel like it's bad which they currently do.
We are seeing Trump underperforming his polling by 8-15%. I don’t think these polls ask questions in a way that captures how much disdain normal people that don’t where red caps feel for Trump.
The polls also don’t capture the disdain women have for Dobbs and this IVF train wreck.
In 2020, Biden was up really big in the polls and only barely won. In 2016, Hilldog was up pretty big (but not as big as Biden in 2020) and barely lost.
So I won't feel comfortable without a huge polling lead going into November. It's still early.
Didn't you lie to a bunch of Sunday school kids? We recall you did.
And you also lied about Trump and elections. Something about his chances for winning. Then you lied about that lie. We recall that as well. That's what happens with deceit. It swirls around and leaves marks on the sides of the bowl. This has been proven many times in history.
Nope! Didn't lie to them ever. I didn't tell them anything that went against my beliefs either. We taught lessons in The Bible, and those lessons DO EXIST, and many of them are worthy of adoption. I never once told them that Jesus was the Son of God or any of the other magical mystical garbage that is part of Christianity.
ALSO, you need to be clear about what a lie is. If a person actually PREACHES the gospel and believes it wholeheartedly but then later sees the light and realizes that there is no God, he did not LIE earlier. For something to be a lie, you have to know it is false. So, for someone in that circumstance, it would not be accurate for him to say, "I lied to them." It would be accurate to say, "I spread falsehoods." A lie is different from a falsehood.
You don't get to pick & choose what to believe in the Bible. Either it's all true or it's all false. There is no in-between.
Sorry man, you lied to yourself, to the kids & to God himself. Ouch!
Chelsea Clinton was off-limits. So too were the Obama daughters and also Hunter.
But, it was damn sure open season on Don Jr., Ivanka, Melania and the rest of the Trump clan. Dems never play fair. They are always sloshing around in the gutter.
Did you just claim that Hunter Biden has been off limits for criticism by the right on this board?
Trump can definitely win. The economy doesn't actually have to be bad. People just have to feel like it's bad which they currently do.
People ALWAYS feel like it is bad, but enough of them will actually know or find out before casting their vote. The 13 Keys talks about recession, not what people's FEELINGS are.
The 13 keys aren't written in stone. It's just a model. I'm not even sure Biden passes it.
If Agip doesn't believe in posting about the children of a politician committing crimes, then you should follow his lead.
Chelsea Clinton was off-limits. So too were the Obama daughters and also Hunter.
But, it was damn sure open season on Don Jr., Ivanka, Melania and the rest of the Trump clan. Dems never play fair. They are always sloshing around in the gutter.
1) Chelsea Clinton was a child when she was in the White House. Get serious.
2) The Obama girls were children when they were in the White House. Get serious.
3) Ivanka had a POSITION in the White House (and an ADULT) when she had NO experience to hold such a position. She's also a lying stupid b!tch.
4) Don Jr. was not a child, and he was very vocal about defending his father's criminal and corrupt behavior. He's also a lying stupid b!tch.
5) Melania came up with the absolutely dumbest slogan ever, "be best." That by itself invites ridicule, and then she wore that stupid jacket with the "I really don't care, do U?" comment on the back. She's also a lying stupid b!tch. Yeah yeah, she speaks x number of languages. Big deal, so does everyone from across the pond.
Ever hear much bad about Tiffany Trump or Barron Trump? NOPE! Because Tiffany kept her nose out of the White House, and Barron was a child. Pull your head out of your ass.
People ALWAYS feel like it is bad, but enough of them will actually know or find out before casting their vote. The 13 Keys talks about recession, not what people's FEELINGS are.
The 13 keys aren't written in stone. It's just a model. I'm not even sure Biden passes it.
Show me the written in stone thing about feelings. I'll wait.
Nope! Didn't lie to them ever. I didn't tell them anything that went against my beliefs either. We taught lessons in The Bible, and those lessons DO EXIST, and many of them are worthy of adoption. I never once told them that Jesus was the Son of God or any of the other magical mystical garbage that is part of Christianity.
ALSO, you need to be clear about what a lie is. If a person actually PREACHES the gospel and believes it wholeheartedly but then later sees the light and realizes that there is no God, he did not LIE earlier. For something to be a lie, you have to know it is false. So, for someone in that circumstance, it would not be accurate for him to say, "I lied to them." It would be accurate to say, "I spread falsehoods." A lie is different from a falsehood.
You don't get to pick & choose what to believe in the Bible. Either it's all true or it's all false. There is no in-between.
Sorry man, you lied to yourself, to the kids & to God himself. Ouch!
Ha! Oh man, BULLSH!T!
So, have you ever stoned to death a person who worked on the Sabbath? Get back to me when you do. Hypocrite.
Regarding Trump, I made a PREDICTION. Making a prediction that doesn't come true is not a lie. But, the further thing you mention where you think I lied is not true. I did say he would lose if he didn't cheat. He cheated. BUT, even if he DIDN'T cheat, it still would not have been a lie, because a prediction can't be a lie. You need to open a dictionary.
. Just go back and read. Jesus Christ, it's like goddam romper room around here with you liberals.
El Runkin has bastardized religion. He tells himself he is a Godly man but he blasphemies our Lord's name while spreading a message of hate.
I would prefer a honest atheist, versus someone who under the cover of religion, constantly expresses messages of hate and exclusion.
I prefer the hate and bigoted messages from anyone else, but you can't really believe Jesus is in anyway happy with your behavior.
Spread your hate, I'm okay with that, just don't mock our Lord by pretending that you are doing his work
The 13 keys aren't written in stone. It's just a model. I'm not even sure Biden passes it.
Show me the written in stone thing about feelings. I'll wait.
Do you want me to make an argument that people vote based on feelings or do you want me to link the polling data for Biden on the economy? I'm not sure what you want because this response is so bad. Like literally newname-tier
If Agip doesn't believe in posting about the children of a politician committing crimes, then you should follow his lead.
Chelsea Clinton was off-limits. So too were the Obama daughters and also Hunter.
But, it was damn sure open season on Don Jr., Ivanka, Melania and the rest of the Trump clan. Dems never play fair. They are always sloshing around in the gutter.
Trump's kids were directly involved in his politics... are you nuts?
We are seeing Trump underperforming his polling by 8-15%. I don’t think these polls ask questions in a way that captures how much disdain normal people that don’t where red caps feel for Trump.
The polls also don’t capture the disdain women have for Dobbs and this IVF train wreck.
In 2020, Biden was up really big in the polls and only barely won. In 2016, Hilldog was up pretty big (but not as big as Biden in 2020) and barely lost.
So I won't feel comfortable without a huge polling lead going into November. It's still early.
What you say in general about polls, especially that it's still early, is CORRECT! Good for you!
Trump and Republicans didn't do themselves any favors by going after abortion the way they did. Ultimately (just takes some time) it actually will have the effect of even more solidifying the right of women to have an abortion...like it did in my RED state of Ohio...like it did in the RED state of Kansas. AND, it's one of the things that is going to lead to Trump losing...not the only thing, just one of the things.
Christians can't study other religions! Better not talk of Vishnu!
As an aside....the bible is supposed to be about monotheism. Only one god! But then this seems to admit there are other gods. Confusing!
According to Exodus 23:13, "And in all things that I have said unto you be circumspect: and make no mention of the name of other gods, neither let it be heard out of thy mouth."
Show me the written in stone thing about feelings. I'll wait.
Do you want me to make an argument that people vote based on feelings or do you want me to link the polling data for Biden on the economy? I'm not sure what you want because this response is so bad. Like literally newname-tier
Polling schmolling. Voting day is what matters. 13 keys cares about recession, not feelings. Yes it's a guide, but it's a damn good one. The check box is...is there a recession? If yes, one for the challenger. If no, one for the incumbent.
Chelsea Clinton was off-limits. So too were the Obama daughters and also Hunter.
But, it was damn sure open season on Don Jr., Ivanka, Melania and the rest of the Trump clan. Dems never play fair. They are always sloshing around in the gutter.
1) Chelsea Clinton was a child when she was in the White House. Get serious.
2) The Obama girls were children when they were in the White House. Get serious.
3) Ivanka had a POSITION in the White House (and an ADULT) when she had NO experience to hold such a position. She's also a lying stupid b!tch.
4) Don Jr. was not a child, and he was very vocal about defending his father's criminal and corrupt behavior. He's also a lying stupid b!tch.
5) Melania came up with the absolutely dumbest slogan ever, "be best." That by itself invites ridicule, and then she wore that stupid jacket with the "I really don't care, do U?" comment on the back. She's also a lying stupid b!tch. Yeah yeah, she speaks x number of languages. Big deal, so does everyone from across the pond.
Ever hear much bad about Tiffany Trump or Barron Trump? NOPE! Because Tiffany kept her nose out of the White House, and Barron was a child. Pull your head out of your ass.
Are you 12-years old? You called Ivanka a "lying stupid b$tch." You called Don Jr. a stupid lying Bi$tch. You called Melania a "stupid lying b*tch."
Seriously, Flagpole - that is way over the top even for you. Your parents and your wife must think you are a little piece of sh%t. Just a turd but they have to live with you. They must really be embarrassed to have you in their family.
If you want some good news on the election front, it is this. Trump has done much much worse in actual voting than in the polls.
Combine that with the Dems doing better in special elections than predicted, and it's a pretty good setup.
Clearly there has been some demographic group not voting as they usually do. I'd guess it's suburban women departing the Trump train but not telling pollsters. But that's just a guess.
Maybe Republicans in general just say yeah yeah I'll vote for the rapist guy sure of course but on the day they get nauseated and stay home.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers · 12h According to the polls, Trump was meant to win: - Iowa by 53 points (he won by 30) - New Hampshire by 18 points (he won by 11) - South Carolina by 28 points (he won by 20) - Michigan by 62 points (he's up by 42) 4 states yields 4 examples of him dramatically underperformed polls
Once again, you're posting from leftist sources who hate Trump. Whereas, I'm giving cold hard numbers sans bias.
Here is the data from the Michigan primary: * Trump beat Nikki Haley by about 42 points * Trump won all 83 counties * Trump got about 140,000 more votes than did Sleepy Joe Trump wins 5th caucus on the bounce, all with record votes. He won every county.
In Iowa, there was bitter cold and dangerous driving conditions to vote that day. The turnout was much less due to that. In any event, Trump set a new margin of victory record anyway.
In NH, Trump won easily. The first GOP candidate to sweep the first two primary states in history. Reagan & both Bush's failed to do that.
In SC, Haley lost in her home state by double digits despite all that Koch money which she no longer has.
In NV, Haley lost to "none of these candidates" which was a complete humiliation.
At this point it's on to Super Tuesday where Haley will be mathematically eliminated. She can either turn democrat or support Trump when she drops out.
On the Democrat side, Sleepy Joe won the MI Primary. However, 16.4% and counting MI Democrats refused to vote for him and voted "Uncommitted." Uh oh.
Over 16% of Democrats headed to the polls and cast ballots for "nobody" instead of Sleepy Joe. Yikes. That should set off some fire alarms for the Bidenettes. Trump has a great opportunity to flip MI from blue to red.
The bar to becoming a GOP presidential candidate is still high.
Boebert's son needs 70 more counts of indictment to get there.
If Agip doesn't believe in posting about the children of a politician committing crimes, then you should follow his lead.
That's not what he said, Biscuit. He said crimes committed by children of politicians is not proper Blotter material. He's didn't call for a prohibition on posting on children of politicians. How the flip would we discuss Hunter Biden under your proposed rule? Ever think of that? I swear sometimes I think half of you are smoking The Pot when you post. Jesus Christ. I'm tired of correcting you guys. Spent half the goddam morning setting you guys straight, ffs. I've freaking had it with this stuff.