Down goes the Dow

Futures Dow -800, S&P 500 -100, Nasdaq -350, Bitcoin $35k

About to get slaughtered in crypto.

Putin has reached evil dictator level. Take this guy out.

Here are a few reasons why I am asking you guys.

The only people I know in real life who have things like 401k’s that they don’t really touch except for rebalancing, are guys who have been lifers at Fortune 500’s, and they are all retired now save for one, who is going on 73 and will stop this year. I have nothing in common with them professionally or as far as career goes. They know only one institutional way of being—to be consummately normal. They absolutely cannot be otherwise. It is who they are.

Now this mf in this 401k—it’s not big, but it’s big enough that it would be worth it to manage it better—ie, at all—if management would mean better performance. But my issue is that I have difficulty with the limited management that is possible.

For a while now, I have thought of selling. Early on I didn’t, because I didn’t want to miss the possible bounce. Then there was that 3-day period where it regained about 8%, iirc. I didn’t sell because it seemed somewhat promising.

Then it reversed direction. If I sold, it would be at NAV after market close. wtf is that? It introduces so many variables, depending on the actual price at the time you decide to sell. What if it has dropped significantly further? What if they turned the machines back on and there was one of those many huge intraday reversals we have recently had? Etc.

The lack of responsiveness in trading these mf’s has me hamstrung, I have chosen no available management strategy at the moment, other than to follow the mf/401k herd. I have made my money by avoiding downturns successfully. This time, I am good again, except there is that pesky mf, that is ruining my clean slate.

I will really consider any and all suggestions, even to bend over and kiss my azz good-bye. Mf’ing mf. Seattle yes I could dump some of it. I see no sentiment-based hope for it in the near future, and there is no tax penalty to sell it.

Gdammit

Maserati,

Understand this, your 401k assets are priced at the daily close. So, the only way you have any control at all on the price is to trade 10 minutes before the close. These accounts are not really structure to trade per se. I suppose, you could push it to 5 minutes before close, but be prepared to go through all the disclaimers to execute the trade.

Hope this helps.

Igy

maser what do you think Warren Buffet is doing right now? Is he lining up sale orders?

Yes, I know. Therein lies the problem. As a fundamentals guy, you know you don’t trade based on the day’s price action.

Well, high times. Really glad I’m only about 14-15% in equities at the moment, and ok with what constitutes 11-12%. These ridiculous political and ideological headlines are going to drive the algos nuts.

Buffett is smart enough to not own trbcx. In fact I think there is a lot in there he doesn’t like.

I’m only talking that trbcx, not the things I have bought this year.

In my view, Ukrainian military will likely be neutralized in days.

We’ll see what BRK-A hits tomorrow. At some point I will probably get some...now that they’re doing buybacks😂

well the point is that that fund is going to perform within 100bps of the SP500 over time so it's just owning the US big cap market. I guarantee Buffet is not worrying over a tiny position that mostly mirrors US big caps. More likely he's looking for stocks at low prices and reminding himself that a year later, after corrections, 90% of the time, the market is up strongly.

If you don't want to be an owner of public equity, then don't be an owner of public equity. Do your own thing.

But worrying about a tiny position of yours that is really just big cap US stocks...isn't worth your time.

the big question for stocks are the ripple effects.

tons of sanctions go on the Russian economy tomorrow. What does that do to the world economy? Does the West hold together on this? Does China simply take over buying all the Russian oil and provide banking?

Does Russia make serious cyber attacks, followed by a US response and an ever-escalating cyber war that turns real?

If russia wins and the ukrainian army flops and the government flees and a puppet is put in place..that's meaningless to the world economy. Except for the ripple effects. Maybe the NYSE doesn't open tomorrow after a cyber attack at 9:29 AM.

Alright well I guess I officially lose my bet to the idiot.

The silver lining is that Russia at least takes the burden of "Dumbest Fvcking War of the 21st Century" off the shoulders of the US. This will make Iraq look like maybe not so bad.

And I'm still bullish by the way. Russia has a GDP less than Florida and is totally irrelevant economically on the world stage. Good thing they have plenty of practice with retarded economic systems because they're about to get kicked back into fvcking medieval feudalism after they get locked out of the dollar and the euro.

Meanwhile investors will continue to lose confidence in the (failed) European Union and pour everything they have into the US of MF'ing A, baby.

assuming the ripple effects are not too bad, I'm sure a lot of investors will remember the classic advice to buy when blood is on the street. To do so makes you feel smart, and it's usually the right thing to do. In a p/l sense anyway.

Apparently the Moscow stock exchange will not open today. Cheers, oligarchs!

I did what I could to warn you all. And yet, advice freely given appears to have little or no value. So it goes…

😞

Right now:

DAX -4.3%
FTSE -3.1%
CAC -4.3%
SMI -2.9%

DXY has just jumped 1%👍