Down goes the Dow

You seem like a guy who gets his facts from YouTube, so I’ll offer this.

All I know is I bought some groceries to make hamburgers, also some some cat litter. Nothing else, and the cost was $72.00. Without the cat litter, two boxes, would have run about $45.00. I doubt it would have been more than about $35.00 a year ago.

Inflation will come down as the Government and Fed slow their stupid policies. If they do, the economy and markets slow, demand goes down. Labor costs and cost of money seems unlikely to go down over the short term.

What will stop inflation?

I think we're all assuming that the US consumer will eventually spend all that previously saved money and go back to living paycheck to paycheck, reducing demand.

At the same time, the invisible hand will go to work increasing supply of everything, esp as covid wanes.

And as always, look at the components of inflation. Even though it is spreading out, it's something like half from *used cars* and gasoline. Gasoline is its own disinflationary machine as it takes money out of the pocket of consumers that they might have spent elsewhere.

Used cars will depend on chip shortages but affects only a small number of people. It can't go on much longer...and we'll lap these numbers, bringing down the overall inflation numbers.

And remember the giant inventory build in 4Q gdp. Really big inventory build. At some point that inventory build will result in lower prices and lower gdp growth as we start hearing about inventory gluts. Inventory gluts are deflationary.

yields heading up again today

I'm walking away from the machine before I start making impulse trades.

Ok one last post before I pack it in and go hide in the closet. Earning expectations are rising. SP500 should make $225 in 2022, which means the forward PE is around 20. Not terrible. Stocks tend to do fine in inflationary periods AND when the fed is raising rates.

“Since the beginning of the earnings season, 4Q21 EPS has been revised up 4.3% to $53.48 (+26% y/y) and 2022 EPS has been revised up 0.6% at $224.90 (+8% y/y),” JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote on Thursday. “Looking to the following year, 2023 EPS has been revised up 0.7% since the beginning of the earnings season to $247.54 (+10% y/y).”

Those earnings are so optimistic considering the end of Fed and Government subsidies.

Agip, I feel for you. Hang in there. Spend some time with dogs. Enjoy the Olympics and Superbowl.

Some things are really tanking this afternoon. What a day this will have been. Intervention needed, asap.

I step out for lunch, I come back and shiit’s going straight down, after a really solid morning.

Wtf happened? Maybe I will be able to do some more buying.

Holy crap

Hey idiot—SQQQ😁

I still think it might work out.

Quiet on these boards today...

Dxy got a nice little bump today👍👍

what is the best app or site for investing in crypto?

crypto nomad wrote:

what is the best app or site for investing in crypto?

Robin Hood.

crypto nomad wrote:

what is the best app or site for investing in crypto?

Please don't buy in Robinhood or Webull. If you can't transfer the coins out to a Ledger then you don't own them.

Stick with the big names. Coinbase Pro, Kraken, Binance.US, Gemini are all good.

What dips are we buying? I hope AMZN drops below 3k again since I missed out last week. And MSFT below 280.

Intervention done. Business as usual.

thanks bro, which one of those do you choose in specific? 

and i appreciate the other response too, but the ledger thing is a good point

zyyzz wrote:

thanks bro, which one of those do you choose in specific? and i appreciate the other response too, but the ledger thing is a good point

Whatever you do, do NOT forget your password. I have read stories of people missing out on hundreds of millions because they forgot their passwords.

Isn't 98% of coding just stitching library calls together with for loops and if statements? Yet plenty of demand for anyone semi-competent at it.

Just saying... I'm not *that* amazed there's demand for things that seems trivial at high level.

I wonder if the wild rumpus has returned🧟‍♂️🧟‍♀️

zyyzz wrote:

thanks bro, which one of those do you choose in specific? and i appreciate the other response too, but the ledger thing is a good point

I buy coins on Binance.US because they have the lowest fees, then transfer them to Kraken to stake because it's supposedly the most secure.