Down goes the Dow

Face the fax wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

General thought would be: You write often about the rise in GDP, but seem to ignore the manufactured nature of the same. It is a fact that GDP has required ever rising amounts of stimulus to generate growth. So lower interest rates do not justify higher stock prices; they are symptoms of a stagnant economy. The Fed is now in the box it created, the purgatory of stagnation or the hell of inflation. Loss of confidence that Fed policies are effective is already here. The Ten Year Treasury will likely move toward 3.25%.

This economy is anything but stagnant.

Yes if you ignore $7 Trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus addiction.

Face the fax wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

General thought would be: You write often about the rise in GDP, but seem to ignore the manufactured nature of the same. It is a fact that GDP has required ever rising amounts of stimulus to generate growth. So lower interest rates do not justify higher stock prices; they are symptoms of a stagnant economy. The Fed is now in the box it created, the purgatory of stagnation or the hell of inflation. Loss of confidence that Fed policies are effective is already here. The Ten Year Treasury will likely move toward 3.25%.

This economy is anything but stagnant.

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Do you have a hard time staying in your lane?

Touché.

I do a fair amount of multi-hour driving in moderate-to-heavy traffic on interstates. So, yeah, I have drifted on occasion. Looking for forward protection, too. And more. Don’t hate me.

If I may be so bold, if safety is your issue, SUVs and hatchbacks provide better vision, and many are VERY sedan-like...like my Hyundai Kona.

There are some GREAT smaller SUVs out there that are worth a look.

Hyundai Kona

Honda HR-V

Toyota Corolla Cross

Kia Seltos

Mazda CX-30

Subaru Crosstrek

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Face the fax wrote:

This economy is anything but stagnant.

Yes if you ignore $7 Trillion in fiscal and monetary stimulus addiction.

This country is not only systemically racist, but it is classist. BOTH parties engage heavily in the latter. This is why there should be NO concern about dumping money into the markets, because at least as much as the US has ANY control over what the markets do (and we do have some), we will ALWAYS have a system that bends over backwards to help wealthy people (thus, those invested in the stock market). Crumbling bridges and poor people be damned, but man, we can't let Graham Wellington III lose stock value.

While the loved tech titans expand their walled compounds, buy bigger yachts , and control what you see.

Flagpole wrote:

wondering wrote:

Touché.

I do a fair amount of multi-hour driving in moderate-to-heavy traffic on interstates. So, yeah, I have drifted on occasion. Looking for forward protection, too. And more. Don’t hate me.

If I may be so bold, if safety is your issue, SUVs and hatchbacks provide better vision, and many are VERY sedan-like...like my Hyundai Kona.

There are some GREAT smaller SUVs out there that are worth a look.

Hyundai Kona

Honda HR-V

Toyota Corolla Cross

Kia Seltos

Mazda CX-30

Subaru Crosstrek

Rav4 Prime is best in class. Longest EV range out of all PHEV vehicles. Smooth, comfortable, quiet ride with Toyota reliability. Almost 600 gallons per tank in hybrid mode. Second fastest Toyota behind the Supra. It has 302 hp. If you have the desire, you can leave BMWs in the dust. You can pay MSRP, sell it to Vroom/CarMax/Carvana for over MSRP, and pocket the $7500 tax credit and state rebate (my state gives $1500). There's really no PHEV or even BEV that compares. This is better than the Model Y which has a bumpy ride, low ground clearance, no towing capacity and terrible workmanship and reliability.

It's also gonna end up being like $45k after dealer markups which is almost double the Crosstrek.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

While the loved tech titans expand their walled compounds, buy bigger yachts , and control what you see.

None of that counters what I said...that stock market rise is EXTREMELY important to both political parties, and so the US government will ALWAYS do what it can to make sure the markets are going to go up.

There will always be multi-billionaires, but the are not the only wealthy people that the government caters to. AND, even if you are of the opinion that the billionaires are the only ones the government cares about, when the stock market increases to help billionaires, it also helps those who have $1 million, $5 million, $10 million, $50 million in the market. $50 million is a pittance to a billionaire, but that amount of money provides a person with just about any luxury they could want (some extreme limitations of course).

Flagpole wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

While the loved tech titans expand their walled compounds, buy bigger yachts , and control what you see.

None of that counters what I said...that stock market rise is EXTREMELY important to both political parties, and so the US government will ALWAYS do what it can to make sure the markets are going to go up.

There will always be multi-billionaires, but the are not the only wealthy people that the government caters to. AND, even if you are of the opinion that the billionaires are the only ones the government cares about, when the stock market increases to help billionaires, it also helps those who have $1 million, $5 million, $10 million, $50 million in the market. $50 million is a pittance to a billionaire, but that amount of money provides a person with just about any luxury they could want (some extreme limitations of course).

None of that will stop the market from losing half or more of its value.

Perhaps in retirement you can move to the inner city and do something about the systemic racism that continues to use Black people for political power while encouraging economic dependence.

Prof. Racket wrote:

investing noob wrote:

Rav4 Prime is best in class. Longest EV range out of all PHEV vehicles. Smooth, comfortable, quiet ride with Toyota reliability. Almost 600 gallons per tank in hybrid mode. Second fastest Toyota behind the Supra. It has 302 hp. If you have the desire, you can leave BMWs in the dust. You can pay MSRP, sell it to Vroom/CarMax/Carvana for over MSRP, and pocket the $7500 tax credit and state rebate (my state gives $1500). There's really no PHEV or even BEV that compares. This is better than the Model Y which has a bumpy ride, low ground clearance, no towing capacity and terrible workmanship and reliability.

It's also gonna end up being like $45k after dealer markups which is almost double the Crosstrek.

Only if you're lazy and don't call around. I'm getting mine at MSRP. It comes next month.

Nice on the Stihl.

I used to have one but have since then gotten rid of it and bought an electric professional grade Makita that is really nice, and upgraded it with a 20 inch blade on it.

I used to look down upon electrics, being the alpha that I am, but I got to tell you, it has some guts to it and is a hell of a lot simpler. 

I may have to fire it up this afternoon - your mention of it has me longing to make some noise and sawdust, and its high time to annoy my neighbor again, fwiw. 

But kudos on the Stihl. They are awesome. 

I am glad you are happy with your purchase. But we know exactly what we want which is why we will likely order it from the factory. There are not many cars on the lots and I doubt we’d find exactly what we want even if the lots were full. Our current Camry is running fine, so there is no rush. If the car takes a few months to come from the factory, so be it.

Ok.

If it does, it will be short-lived. My pre-crash value (to early 2009) returned within 3 years. Big deal. No debt, owning your home outright, taking SS and/or pension plus three YEARS of expenses outside of stock investments, protect against that while the market recovers...because it WILL recover. You sound like you worry too much.

Makita is really nice so you get points for that.

Unfortunately you're still in the negative for owning an electric version of something that was meant, as it is written in the Bible by God himself, to be 2-stroke blue smoke sputtering noise machine

I know that. 

I had it coming.

And it had to be said.

Let's move on.

I've talked about this before...trying to understand how hedging affects the stock market's price level.

this tweet suggests that when hedges hit high levels, it's usually a good point to buy stocks.

In other words, similar to the VIX, it highlights points of pain, where the towel has been thrown in.

Which are often good places to buy.

Just one piece of info and I can't vouch for the source.

https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1491074585722519552?s=20&t=LmYnBuwQ6VLV_Pb4h3ZUhA

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Financial conditions: discrediting Fed QE and Government stimulus policies. Blow up of FAANMG, SPACs, NFTs, real estate and crypto. Collapse of interest in stock trading and financial shows like Fast Money and Cramer.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/SP500-Deviation-Exponential-Growth-Trend-020622.png

Lies, damn lies, chart crimes. Yes, an inflation adj SP500 Price didn't surpass 12/1968 until 12/1992; but Total Real Geometric Return was 4.13% during that same period. Also, in 12/1968 the SP500 was less than 1 stdev above trend.

9/1929 wasn't surpassed until 11/1958; Real Total Geometric Return was 5.57%. SP500 was 1.75 stdev above trend.

Let's look at the UK Inflation adj data.

After a century of wars culminating with the defeat of Napoleon, and despite public debt almost reaching 200%

The British stock market began an advance to the end of the century, averaging over 2.25 stdev above trend and never dropping below 1 stdev above trend from 1850-1899. The rise of the US, 2 wars and the loss of an Empire took its toll, not some regression to a metaphysical trend line.

Robert Shiller's data for S&P 500 Real Price and Real Return, you can download here and see for yourself.

Graph of Wilshire 5000 Real Price Index and Real Total Return illustrates this also. I,'ve added trend lines for each series. Wilshire 5000 Real Price Index was 2.84 stdev above trend in 3/2000; it's .87 now. Just in case you're wondering.