I'm confused: Cinder just posted on Facebook "looks like about a 10 pm ish finish", but it looks like an after midnight finish to me. At her current pace she's still got about 6 more hours of running yet to go.
I'm confused: Cinder just posted on Facebook "looks like about a 10 pm ish finish", but it looks like an after midnight finish to me. At her current pace she's still got about 6 more hours of running yet to go.
Sandy? wrote:
Are we inside of 20 miles to go? No way she is stopping now, even if she has to walk the whole way.
But we don't have much idea where she currently is mentally and physically. A 20 mile walk at this point probably ain't easy-peasy. Hope we can get some LiveStreaming updates soon.
Sandy? wrote:
Are we inside of 20 miles to go? No way she is stopping now, even if she has to walk the whole way.
I think I will post miles to go, the Garmin Time adjusted to Eastern Time, and the time for the latest mile. I have a good plot of Sandy final route in two versions which are within 900 feet of the same distance to go with 20 miles left. One route goes by Central Park and down Broadway (Pete's Route) and one along the bike path then over to City Hall (Sandy's intended route per Cinder).
Sandy? wrote:
I'm confused: Cinder just posted on Facebook "looks like about a 10 pm ish finish", but it looks like an after midnight finish to me. At her current pace she's still got about 6 more hours of running yet to go.
Exactly. It is going on 7pm, and she has over six hours of walking to complete.
scam_watcheroo wrote:
scam_watcheroo wrote:
I've done analysis of Sandra's Strava files that relates to your question. On average, Sandra stays in her running cadence for 5-6 minutes at a time before dipping down and resuming running again. I'll plot Sandra's numbers per day and post the links here.
I've finished running Sandra's Strava data through my tool to spit out a detailed summary stats per run and also by per day, along with some relevant graphs.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B1F3plcU7fEmZHAyd2hCOUtBczgIn particular, this graph below will interest you. It shows you the average duration and count of the number of run-walk cycles Sandra did each day. The number of times Sandra transitions from a running cadence to a walking cadence varies from 50-300 times depending on which day we are looking at because of the terrain/weather/fatigue.
The yellow line shows the average time below running cadence per run-walk cycle. On most days, Sandra only spent 2.5-4 minutes on average below running cadence per run-walk cycle. There are 3 big spikes from the runs on Sept. 22-24th where her average time spent below running cadence is extremely high (18-47 minutes), but these are the days when she experienced the extremely snow in the mountains so it expected. Note that the yellow line includes all the times she took for lunch, too, since that is part of her data.
The blue line shows the average time she spent in a running cadence during a run-walk cycle. It varies between 3-18 minutes depending on the day we are looking at. But one thing should be clear looking at the graph. From October 10th to now, Sandra's average time spent running per run-walk cycle has been in a steady decline with a corresponding increase in the number of run-walk cycles (black line). This indicates that Sandra is in fact experiencing increasing fatigue from her transcon and is supported by the fact that her daily mileage has been in a decreasing trend while the run duration has stayed the same and the net elevation change has not been notably different per day during the recent weeks.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kI6eWBw_KkoTg59pIR4hxwZiasNAfH-Q/viewhttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1jYeWGnpP1E68dgDi8wraoSB6z9z2kORI/view?usp=sharing
Wow, thanks for that effort. So answering the original question, "The number of times Sandra transitions from a running cadence to a walking cadence varies from 50-300 times depending on which day ...On average, Sandra stays in her running cadence for 5-6 minutes at a time before dipping down and resuming running again. "
You meant to add the word "then" before the word "resuming" in the above statement, if I understand you correctly.
Sandy's final push
06:48 PM: 19 ~16 min for previous mile
Sandy's Final Push
Time: Miles to Go ~Previous Mile Time
07:09 PM 18 00:21 07:09 PM: 18 ~21 min
Sandy's Final Push
Time: Miles to Go ~Previous Mile Time
07:09 PM: 18 ~21 min
So far today 2 wrote:
Sandy's final push
06:48 PM: 19 ~16 min for previous mile
But at this point, with the fatigue, ~16 min/mile, could be an effort that pushes her over the line. If they resign themselves to walking it, they need to decide whether she should instead bed down, and for how long. Is there any live update on her mental/physical state?
it is, what it is wrote:
So far today 2 wrote:
Sandy's final push
06:48 PM: 19 ~16 min for previous mile
But at this point, with the fatigue, ~16 min/mile, could be an effort that pushes her over the line. If they resign themselves to walking it, they need to decide whether she should instead bed down, and for how long. Is there any live update on her mental/physical state?
The breadcrumb times are only accurate to +/- 15 seconds. They are placed only at two minute intervals. You should assume +/- 2-minutes for accuracy.
If you have every tried to meet up with someone doing a a long run the splits will make sense to you. People wanting to meet up with Sandy can make a reasonable estimate when she will arrive.
Sandy's Final Push
Time (Eastern): Miles to Go ~Previous Mile Time
07:27 PM: 17 ~18 min
So far today 2 wrote:
The breadcrumb times are only accurate to +/- 15 seconds. They are placed only at two minute intervals. You should assume +/- 2-minutes for accuracy.
Here is her data:
https://share.garmin.com/SandraVillines"You should assume +/- 2-minutes for accuracy. "
You are referring to your deduction of pace from the Garmin points? Looking at the Garmin points, one can deduce she is going at roughly walking, with brief stops occurring roughly every 1500 ft.
"...one can deduce she is going at roughly walking *pace,..."
it is, what it is wrote:
So far today 2 wrote:
The breadcrumb times are only accurate to +/- 15 seconds. They are placed only at two minute intervals. You should assume +/- 2-minutes for accuracy.
Here is her data:
https://share.garmin.com/SandraVillines"You should assume +/- 2-minutes for accuracy. "
You are referring to your deduction of pace from the Garmin points? Looking at the Garmin points, one can deduce she is going at roughly walking, with brief stops occurring roughly every 1500 ft.
There is no reduction on my part. The breadcrumbs fall where they fall. If you are running a mile measured using Goggle Maps and you only time yourself every two minutes how accurate can you determine for an actual time? I am not interpolating between points not adjusting Google Maps distance to make the data fir some deduction. You can make your own deductions from the data. That is how it should be.
this is amazing, no? wrote:
Wow, thanks for that effort. So answering the original question, "The number of times Sandra transitions from a running cadence to a walking cadence varies from 50-300 times depending on which day ...On average, Sandra stays in her running cadence for 5-6 minutes at a time before dipping down and resuming running again. "
You meant to add the word "then" before the word "resuming" in the above statement, if I understand you correctly.
Yes, on average Sandra does about 5-6 minutes of running, then followed by some short minutes of walking/rest, then resuming running again, and repeat. But it varies widely depending on which day is being looked at because of the terrain/weather/fatigue.
Walking would get her to the George Washington Bridge at ~9:15pm local time.
scam_watcheroo wrote:
this is amazing, no? wrote:
Wow, thanks for that effort. So answering the original question, "The number of times Sandra transitions from a running cadence to a walking cadence varies from 50-300 times depending on which day ...On average, Sandra stays in her running cadence for 5-6 minutes at a time before dipping down and resuming running again. "
You meant to add the word "then" before the word "resuming" in the above statement, if I understand you correctly.
Yes, on average Sandra does about 5-6 minutes of running, then followed by some short minutes of walking/rest, then resuming running again, and repeat. But it varies widely depending on which day is being looked at because of the terrain/weather/fatigue.
Seems like what happens in any ultra race. Sandy is finally experience a fatigue day like Mimi did before she quit. Sandy has just over 16 miles to go.
this is amazing, no? wrote:
Walking would get her to the George Washington Bridge at ~9:15pm local time.
She will have just over 12 miles to go (12-1/4) when she reaches the bridge and 11 miles to go as she starts her way down. NY is half-way across. Also, she must cross on the south side because the north side is locked and gated. That means she needs to run on surface streets for another mile and change before she can get to the bike path.
Sandy's Final Push
Eastern Time: Miles to Go~Pervious Mile Time
07:47 PM: 16 ~20 min
It has been 20 minutes since the last Tracker update.